Valenciennes vs Orleans
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Stade du Hainaut • ☀️ 4.8°C, 8 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.10 (52.2%, Model EV +9.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.19 → 2.25 ▲3% | Pinnacle2.25 | 41.3% | -7.1% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.33 | 71.2% | -5.3% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair2.10 | 52.2% · Yes 47.8% | +9.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Pinnacle1.85 | 53.7% · Over 46.3% | -0.7% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | William Hill7.00 | 10.9% | -23.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Valenciennes · Home
Valenciennes have lost three of their last five, including 1-2 at Cannes and 2-3 at La Roche VF, and failed to score in only one of those matches. Their model expected goals of 1.22 point to a modest but real attacking output at home.
Orleans · Away
Orleans are winless in five with three draws, and they failed to score in two of those games, including the 0-0 with Cannes and the 0-2 loss at Amiens. Their model expected goals of 1.08 sit just below Valenciennes' figure.
H2H pattern favours home side
The latest head-to-head, on 31 Jan 2026, finished 0-1 to Orleans, yet the two prior meetings both went to the home team, with Valenciennes winning 1-0 at this venue. Orleans' recent record of 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with only 4 goals scored in 5 matches, supports a low-scoring home edge. Valenciennes' 6 goals in 5 games and the 1-0 correct-score lean fit a tight contest rather than an open one. The evidence supports Valenciennes win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 10:46 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Valenciennes 1.22 – 1.08 Orleans · expected total 2.30
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Valenciennes
Orleans
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 3
Valenciennes
Orleans
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 18 Ligue 3 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Valenciennes at home · Orleans away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Valenciennes (home)
Orleans (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Orleans 6 wins · 0 draws · Valenciennes 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 4 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Valenciennes | 0–1 | Orleans | Ligue 3 |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Orleans | 2–1 | Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| 24 Jan 2025 | Valenciennes | 1–0 | Orleans | Ligue 3 |
| 09 Oct 2024 | Orleans | 4–1 | Valenciennes | Ligue 3 |
| 22 Nov 2019 | Orleans | 0–1 | Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| 15 Mar 2019 | Valenciennes | 1–4 | Orleans | Ligue 2 |
| 19 Oct 2018 | Orleans | 1–0 | Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
| 02 Mar 2018 | Valenciennes | 0–1 | Orleans | Ligue 2 |
| 29 Sep 2017 | Orleans | 3–4 | Valenciennes | Ligue 2 |
📈 Recent Form
Valenciennes
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cannes | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Amiens | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 03/10 | Versailles | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 26/09 | Le Puy Foot | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | La Roche VF | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Fleury 91 | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 03/09 | Rouen | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 29/08 | Concarneau | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 20/08 | Gobelins | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 14/08 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | Home | 2–0 | W |
Orleans
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Villefranche | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Quevilly | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 01/10 | Bastia | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 26/09 | Cannes | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Amiens | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Versailles | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 05/09 | Le Puy Foot | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 29/08 | La Roche VF | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/08 | Fleury 91 | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 14/08 | Rouen | Home | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 3
Valenciennes #15 · 9 pts · Orleans #14 · 10 pts
Valenciennes
Orleans
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Valenciennes
Orleans
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Ligue 3 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws