Udinese vs AC Milan

Udinese host AC Milan at the Bluenergy Stadium on Sunday with the two clubs in very different moods. The home side sit 15th on 4 points from 6 games, while Milan are 5th on 12 points, and the recent head-to-head record is brutally one-sided: Milan have won the last five meetings, including 0-3 and 0-4 scorelines in Udine.

The model leans toward the visitors, giving Milan a 33.4 percent win probability at 75 confidence, with the double chance covering 12 at 66.9 percent. Udinese's form reads LDLLL, and their recent expected goals of 1.34 sit just above their match projection of 1.1142, while Milan's 1.4 recent xG edges their 1.2567 figure. Both squads are heavily depleted: Udinese list twelve absentees or doubts, Milan eight, including attacking names that could blunt their edge.

For bettors, the draw is priced at 27.9 percent with 67 confidence, and the correct score model favours 0-1 at 8.3 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 next in line. Under 2.5 goals lands at 50.3 percent and both teams to score at 50.7 percent, so the low-scoring angle is where the numbers cluster. Corners offer a separate route, with over 9.5 at 53.2 percent against an expected 10.1.

The honest caveat: Milan's win probability is only 33.4 percent, so this is no banker, and with eight Milan players missing, the value may actually sit in the draw or the unders rather than the outright away result.