AS Roma vs Genoa
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 7 • Stadio Olimpico • 🌧 10.2°C, 16 km/h, 0.4mm rain
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.36 → 1.4 ▲3% | 92% | 79.2% | 1.40 | 1xBet | 73.6% | +5.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 82% | 86.9% | 1.09 | BetVictor | 90.6% | -3.7 pp |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 50.4% | 1.91 | Betfair | 50.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 48.1% | 1.74 | 1xBet | 56.6% | -8.5 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | 71% | 11.7% | 7.20 | Betano | 7.2% | +4.5 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 62% | 53% | 2.12 | Betano | 44.1% | +8.9 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: AS Roma 1.95 – 0.64 Genoa · expected total 2.60
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model sees a lopsided contest. Roma's recent expected goals sit at 2.22 against Genoa's 1.01, and the match-level figures of 1.9524 for the home side versus 0.6432 for the away side underline the gap. Roma's injury list is long, including L. Pellegrini, E. Ndicka and M. Svilar, while Genoa are missing the likes of D. Sow and J. Vasquez, but the underlying numbers still heavily favour the hosts.
The headline tip is a Home win at 79.2% probability, priced at 1.4, with the 1X double chance at 86.9%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.4% and odds of 1.91, while Over 2.5 goals carries 48.1% and 1.74. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 14.28%, followed by 1-0 at 13.68% and 3-0 at 9.29%. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 53% with an expected 9.9.
The honest caveat is that Roma's 1.4 price leaves little margin, and the BTTS and Over 2.5 calls sit near coin-flip territory, so the value may hide in the correct-score and corners markets rather than the outright.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
AS Roma
Genoa
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
AS Roma
Genoa
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A
AS Roma
Genoa
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
AS Roma at home · Genoa away — the split that matters for this fixture.
AS Roma (home)
Genoa (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
AS Roma 6 wins · 2 draws · Genoa 2 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 2026 | Genoa | 2–1 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 29 Dec 2025 | AS Roma | 3–1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 17 Jan 2025 | AS Roma | 3–1 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Genoa | 1–1 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 19 May 2024 | AS Roma | 1–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 28 Sep 2023 | Genoa | 4–1 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 12 Jan 2023 | AS Roma | 1–0 | Genoa | Coppa Italia |
| 05 Feb 2022 | AS Roma | 0–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 21 Nov 2021 | Genoa | 0–2 | AS Roma | Serie A |
| 07 Mar 2021 | AS Roma | 1–0 | Genoa | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
AS Roma
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Inter | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 14/09 | Torino | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 10/09 | Fenerbahçe | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Atalanta | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 31/08 | Lecce | Away | 4–0 | W |
Genoa
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Fiorentina | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Rapid | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Parma | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 15/09 | Sudtirol | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Frosinone | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Serie A
AS Roma #3 · 14 pts — Genoa #17 · 4 pts
AS Roma
Genoa
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
AS Roma
Genoa
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
AS Roma
- ❌ L. Pellegrini — Thigh Injury
- ❌ D. Rensch — Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Bah — Jumpers Knee
- ❌ E. Ndicka — Illness
- ❌ B. Cristante — Injury
- ❌ K. Koulierakis — Knock
- ❌ M. Svilar — Toe Injury
Genoa
- ❌ E. Havel — Thigh Injury
- ❌ H. J. Traore — Muscle Injury
- ❌ C. Drameh — Inactive
- ❌ L. Venturino — Jumpers Knee
- ❌ Amorim — Inactive
- ❌ L. Colombo — Ankle Injury
- ❌ F. Meichtry — Muscle Injury
- ❌ D. Sow — Injury
- ❌ J. Vasquez — Red Card
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws