Atalanta vs Venezia
Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 16:30 UTC+3 • Round 6 • New Balance Arena • ⛅ 16.5°C, 3 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.66 → 1.63 ▼2% | 87% | 66.1% | 1.63 | 1xBet | 63.5% | +2.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 81% | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1xBet | 84.2% | +0.7 pp |
| BTTS | No | 84% | 53.9% | 2.30 | William Hill | 41.2% | +12.7 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 53.8% | 2.61 | Pinnacle | 37.6% | +16.2 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 82% | 18.3% | 10.00 | Bet365 | 5.5% | +12.8 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 65% | 56.2% | 1.63 | Pinnacle | 59.3% | -3.1 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Atalanta 1.30 – 0.47 Venezia · expected total 1.76
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans heavily on the form book. Atalanta's recent run reads LLLWW, but Venezia's is a bleak LLLLL, and the standings tell the same story. Expected goals point one way: Atalanta carry a home figure of 1.2977 against Venezia's away 0.4663, though recent underlying numbers are less flattering — 0.85 for the hosts and 1.4 for the visitors. Injuries bite both squads, with Atalanta missing H. Ahanor, T. Kristensen, K. Sulemana, I. Hien, G. Gaetano, O. Kossounou and possibly G. Raspadori, while Venezia's list is even longer, including A. Duncan, M. Moreno, M. Dagasso, R. Haps, B. Franjić, A. Adorante, T. Bašić, A. Bella-Kotchap, G. Busio, M. Šverko and P. Mazzocchi. History is one-sided too: the last five meetings produced a 0-0, a 0-2, a 1-3, a 2-0 and a 4-0.
The headline tip is a home win at 65.1 percent, priced at 1.66, with double chance 1X at 84.9 percent. The model also likes No on both teams to score at 53.9 percent (odds 2.3), Under 2.5 goals at 53.8 percent (odds 2.6), Under 9.5 corners at 56.2 percent, and a 1-0 correct score at 18.3 percent. Value may hide in the unders and the clean-sheet angle, where the odds look generous relative to the probabilities.
The honest caveat: Atalanta's own recent xG of 0.85 is modest, and a heavily depleted Venezia could still frustrate a home side that has lost three of its last five.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Atalanta
Venezia
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Atalanta
Venezia
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A
Atalanta
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Venezia
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Atalanta at home · Venezia away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Atalanta (home)
Venezia (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Atalanta 4 wins · 1 draw · Venezia 0 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 1 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar 2025 | Atalanta | 0–0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Venezia | 0–2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Venezia | 1–3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Atalanta | 2–0 | Venezia | Coppa Italia |
| 30 Nov 2021 | Atalanta | 4–0 | Venezia | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Atalanta
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Juventus | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Cagliari | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 05/09 | AS Roma | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 31/08 | Bologna | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 27/08 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Away | 1–0 | W |
Venezia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Lazio | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 11/09 | Fiorentina | Home | 2–4 | L |
| 06/09 | Frosinone | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 02/09 | Udinese | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 28/08 | AC Milan | Away | 0–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — Serie A
Atalanta #11 · 6 pts — Venezia #20 · 0 pts
Atalanta
Venezia
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Atalanta
Venezia
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Atalanta
- ❌ H. Ahanor — Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Kristensen — Ankle Injury
- ❌ K. Sulemana — Jumpers Knee
- ❌ I. Hien — Muscle Bruise
- ❌ G. Gaetano — Red Card
- ❌ O. Kossounou — Thigh Injury
- ❓ G. Raspadori (doubtful) — Thigh Injury
Venezia
- ❌ A. Duncan — Injury
- ❌ M. Moreno — Health problems
- ❌ M. Dagasso — Inactive
- ❌ R. Haps — Inactive
- ❌ B. Franjić — Wound
- ❌ A. Adorante — Inguinal Hernia
- ❌ T. Bašić — Foot Injury
- ❌ A. Bella-Kotchap — Wound
- ❌ G. Busio — Wound
- ❌ M. Šverko — Hip Injury
- ❌ P. Mazzocchi — Injury
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Paride Tremolada