Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Bologna vs Inter

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ β›… 19.6Β°C, 9 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 85% 59% 1.69 1xBet 61.5% -2.5 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 70.6% 1.28 1xBet 77.4% -6.8 pp
BTTS Yes 84% 54.8% 1.70 Bet365 57% -2.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 50.6% 1.72 1xBet 57.2% -6.6 pp
Correct Score 1-2 63% 7.3% 8.50 Bet365 6.2% +1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.4% 2.25 Betano 41.6% +12.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Bologna 1.30 – 1.63 Inter Β· expected total 2.93

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Serie A round seven sends a Bologna side stuck in 13th, with just 5 points from 6 games, up against the league leaders Inter, who have 16 points from 6 and arrive on the back of a WWDWL run. The hosts' form reads DLDLL, so the stakes are simple: Inter protect top spot, Bologna try to stop the slide.

The model leans heavily on recent attacking output. Bologna's recent expected goals sit at 1.08, while Inter's recent figure is 2.96, and the goal expectations for this match are 1.3007 for the home side against 1.6319 for the visitors. Bologna's injury list is punishing, with N. Casale, O. El Azzouzi, J. Rowe, R. Orsolini, A. Dovbyk, N. Zortea, E. Holm, S. Mbangula and J. Odgaard all out, while Inter are missing H. Mkhitaryan, M. Spinacce, D. Spence, C. Jones, J. Stones and H. Calhanoglu. The head-to-head is wild: 3-3, 3-1, 1-0, 2-2 and 0-1 across the last five.

The headline tip is an away win at 59 percent, priced at 1.69, with double chance 12 at 70.6 percent. Both teams to score is rated 54.8 percent at 1.7, over 2.5 goals 50.6 percent at 1.72, and over 9.5 corners 54.4 percent with 10.6 expected. The correct-score model favours 1-2 at 9.24, ahead of 0-1 at 7.58 and 0-2 at 7.11.

The honest caveat: that 1.69 away price is short for a fixture that has produced draws and Bologna wins recently, and with over 2.5 only just above a coin flip, the goals markets carry real variance.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bologna

Form (last 5)
DTorino (H) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LNapoli (A) 0–1 Β· 13/09/2026DSassuolo (H) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026LAtalanta (A) 0–1 Β· 31/08/2026LLazio (H) 0–1 Β· 24/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.08
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1539
Players out9

Inter

Form (last 5)
WParma (H) 3–0 Β· 10/10/2026WLumezzane (H) 2–0 Β· 03/10/2026DAS Roma (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WUdinese (H) 5–3 Β· 14/09/2026LReal Madrid (A) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)2.96
xG against (recent avg)1.70
Elo strength rating1768
Players out6
BolognaInter
WParma (H) 3–0 Β· 10/10/2026WLumezzane (H) 2–0 Β· 03/10/2026DAS Roma (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WUdinese (H) 5–3 Β· 14/09/2026LReal Madrid (A) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.60
3.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
0
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.08
2.96
xG against (recent avg)
1.03
1.70
Elo strength rating
1539
1768
Players out
9
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bologna

Winless 7
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Inter

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Bologna

Worst attack (0.60 goals/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Inter

Best attack (3.00 goals/game) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bologna at home Β· Inter away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bologna (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–1L
D 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Inter (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–0L
W 1
D 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Bologna (home)Inter (away)
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 1
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
7.3%
0–1
6%
0–2
5.6%
1–3
4%
0–3
3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bologna 2 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Inter 3 wins Β· avg 3.5 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 8

2
3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
23 May 2026 Bologna 3–3 Inter Serie A
04 Jan 2026 Inter 3–1 Bologna Serie A
20 Apr 2025 Bologna 1–0 Inter Serie A
15 Jan 2025 Inter 2–2 Bologna Serie A
09 Mar 2024 Bologna 0–1 Inter Serie A
07 Oct 2023 Inter 2–2 Bologna Serie A
26 Feb 2023 Bologna 1–0 Inter Serie A
09 Nov 2022 Inter 6–1 Bologna Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bologna

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Torino Home 1–1 D
13/09 Napoli Away 0–1 L
06/09 Sassuolo Home 2–2 D
31/08 Atalanta Away 0–1 L
24/08 Lazio Home 0–1 L

Inter

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Parma Home 3–0 W
03/10 Lumezzane Home 2–0 W
19/09 AS Roma Away 2–2 D
14/09 Udinese Home 5–3 W
08/09 Real Madrid Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Bologna #13 Β· 5 pts β€”  Inter #1 Β· 16 pts

Bologna

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–3L
W 1
D 2
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.08
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)3.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Inter

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–0L
W 5
D 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)3.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.96
xG against (avg)1.70
Corners for (avg)7.30
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
BolognaInter
W 1
D 2
L 3
W 5
D 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.60
3.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.30
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
8
9
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.08
2.96
xG against (avg)
1.03
1.70
Corners for (avg)
3.50
7.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bologna

0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Inter

2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
1
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Bologna

  • ❌ N. Casale β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ O. El Azzouzi β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Rowe β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Orsolini β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Dovbyk β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ N. Zortea β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ E. Holm β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ S. Mbangula β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Odgaard β€” Thigh Injury

Inter

  • ❌ H. Mkhitaryan β€” Suspended
  • ❌ M. Spinacce β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Spence β€” Wound
  • ❌ C. Jones β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Stones β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Calhanoglu β€” Muscle Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws