Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Monza vs Cagliari

Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ β˜€οΈ 17.1Β°C, 0 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 74% 31.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 68% 66.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 49.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 64% 8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 67% 27.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Monza 1.23 – 1.15 Cagliari Β· expected total 2.38

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Monza host Cagliari in Serie A round 7 with the two clubs in very different moods. The visitors sit 4th on 13 points from 6, while Monza are 16th with just 4 points, so the table points to an away side full of confidence and a home team still searching for traction.

The model leans toward the hosts anyway, giving Monza a 31.3 percent win probability at 74 confidence, with the draw at 27.9 percent. Recent form reads WLDWL for Monza against WWWLL for Cagliari, and the expected goals split is tight: 1.2288 for Monza versus 1.1503 for Cagliari, though recent xG favours the hosts at 1.94 against 1.19. Both squads are heavily depleted, with eleven Monza names and nine Cagliari names listed as injuries, which muddies any read on rhythm.

The headline tips are a home win, double chance 12 at 66.9 percent, and Under 2.5 at 47.1 percent, with BTTS Yes at 49.1 percent. The correct-score model likes 1-0 at 10.08 percent, ahead of 2-1 at 8.05 and 2-0 at 7. Corners point Over 9.5 at 54.5 percent with an expected 10.7. Value may hide in the draw at 27.9 percent if bookmakers overprice Cagliari's table position, or in the home win if odds drift past the model's 31.3 percent.

The honest caveat: Monza's low 31.3 percent win probability is not a strong edge, and with both teams missing so many players, the xG and form signals carry real uncertainty.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Monza

Form (last 5)
WSassuolo (H) 2–1 Β· 18/09/2026LLecce (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DParma (A) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WTorino (A) 1–0 Β· 01/09/2026LUdinese (H) 2–3 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.65
xG against (recent avg)0.95
Elo strength rating1344
Players out11

Cagliari

Form (last 5)
WUdinese (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAtalanta (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026WLecce (H) 1–0 Β· 07/09/2026LHellas Verona (H) 1–2 Β· 03/09/2026LInter (H) 0–1 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.01
xG against (recent avg)1.59
Elo strength rating1466
Players out9
MonzaCagliari
WSassuolo (H) 2–1 Β· 18/09/2026LLecce (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DParma (A) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WTorino (A) 1–0 Β· 01/09/2026LUdinese (H) 2–3 Β· 29/08/2026
WUdinese (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAtalanta (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026WLecce (H) 1–0 Β· 07/09/2026LHellas Verona (H) 1–2 Β· 03/09/2026LInter (H) 0–1 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.40
0.40
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.65
1.01
xG against (recent avg)
0.95
1.59
Elo strength rating
1344
1466
Players out
11
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Monza

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Cagliari

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Monza

2nd worst defence (2.40 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (83%)

Cagliari

Best defence (0.40 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (3)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Monza at home Β· Cagliari away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Monza (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Cagliari (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–0L
W 3
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Monza (home)Cagliari (away)
W 1
L 1
W 3
Played
2
3
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
0.30
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8%
2–1
6.4%
2–0
5.6%
3–1
2.6%
3–0
2.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Cagliari 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Monza 1 win Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 4

2
1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
30 Mar 2025 Cagliari 3–0 Monza Serie A
05 Jan 2025 Monza 1–2 Cagliari Serie A
16 Mar 2024 Monza 1–0 Cagliari Serie A
26 Nov 2023 Cagliari 1–1 Monza Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Monza

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/09 Sassuolo Home 2–1 W
13/09 Lecce Away 2–3 L
06/09 Parma Away 1–1 D
01/09 Torino Away 1–0 W
29/08 Udinese Home 2–3 L

Cagliari

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Udinese Away 1–0 W
12/09 Atalanta Away 2–1 W
07/09 Lecce Home 1–0 W
03/09 Hellas Verona Home 1–2 L
30/08 Inter Home 0–1 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Monza #16 Β· 4 pts β€”  Cagliari #4 Β· 13 pts

Monza

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.65
xG against (avg)0.95
Corners for (avg)5.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Cagliari

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–1L
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards5
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.01
xG against (avg)1.59
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
MonzaCagliari
W 1
D 1
L 4
W 4
D 1
L 1
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
0.40
Clean sheets
0
3
Failed to score
0
1
Yellow cards
9
5
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.65
1.01
xG against (avg)
0.95
1.59
Corners for (avg)
5.70
4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Monza

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Cagliari

1
0-15
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Monza

  • ❌ E. Akinsanmiro β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Colombo β€” Injury
  • ❌ D. Mota β€” Suspended
  • ❌ D. Thiam β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ I. Toure β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ G. Varela β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ P. Ciurria β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. ZiΓ³Ε‚kowski β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ M. Pessina β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ C. Ngonge β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ O. Forson β€” Inactive

Cagliari

  • ❌ A. Albarracin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Esposito β€” Injury
  • ❌ Kevin β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ Y. Mina β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Y. Sugawara β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M'Bala Nzola β€” Fitness
  • ❌ Y. Trepy β€” Wound
  • ❌ Riyad Idrissi β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ M. Felici β€” Jumpers Knee

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws