Fiorentina vs Como

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 • 13:00 UTC+3 • Round 7 • Stadio Artemio Franchi • ⛅ 21.1°C, 20 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Away	79%	44.7%	2.13	1xBet	48.4%	-3.7 pp
Double Chance	12	69%	69.1%	1.31	1xBet	74.4%	-5.3 pp
BTTS	Yes	82%	51.7%	1.57	William Hill	59.6%	-7.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	80%	48.1%	1.73	1xBet	57%	-8.9 pp
Correct Score	1-2	62%	7%	9.00	Betano	5.9%	+1.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.)	Over 9.5	61%	52.8%	2.37	Betano	39.5%	+13.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Fiorentina 1.23 – 1.47 Como · expected total 2.69

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Fiorentina host Como at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday with the two clubs heading in opposite directions. The hosts sit 19th on 4 points from 6 games, while Como arrive 7th on 11 points, and the recent head-to-head record is brutally one-sided: Como have won all five of the last meetings, including 1-2 and 1-3 scorelines in this fixture.

The model leans heavily on current form. Fiorentina's last five read LDWWL; Como's read LWWWW. Recent expected goals favour the visitors too, with Fiorentina at 1.95 and Como at 2.23, and the goal expectations for this match sit at 1.2267 for the home side against 1.4666 for the away side. Fiorentina's injury list is a real concern, featuring M. Kean, R. Sottil, F. Parisi and A. Atta, while Como are without J. Addai and M. Kean.

The headline tip is an away win at 2.13, carrying a 44.7 percent model probability and a confidence rating of 79. Double chance 12 is rated at 69.1 percent. Both teams to score is priced at 1.57 with a 51.7 percent probability, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 sits at 48.1 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 8.94 percent, followed by 0-1 at 8.71 and 0-2 at 7.28. Corners offer an angle, with Over 9.5 expected at 9.9 and a 52.8 percent probability.

The honest caveat: a 44.7 percent away probability is not dominance, and Fiorentina's home crowd plus a low-scoring 0-1 outcome at 8.71 percent shows how fine the margins are. Treat the away win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Fiorentina

Form (last 5)

LGenoa (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 DNapoli (H) 1–1 · 20/09/2026WPisa (H) 3–0 · 15/09/2026WVenezia (A) 4–2 · 11/09/2026 LTorino (H) 1–2 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)2.30

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.48

xG against (recent avg)0.73

Elo strength rating1356

Players out4

Como

Form (last 5)

LFrosinone (A) 0–2 · 20/09/2026 WParma (H) 2–1 · 14/09/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 4–1 · 10/09/2026WGenoa (A) 4–1 · 04/09/2026WNapoli (A) 2–1 · 30/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.47

xG against (recent avg)1.09

Elo strength rating1661

Players out2

FiorentinaComo

LGenoa (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026 DNapoli (H) 1–1 · 20/09/2026WPisa (H) 3–0 · 15/09/2026WVenezia (A) 4–2 · 11/09/2026 LTorino (H) 1–2 · 05/09/2026

LFrosinone (A) 0–2 · 20/09/2026 WParma (H) 2–1 · 14/09/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 4–1 · 10/09/2026WGenoa (A) 4–1 · 04/09/2026WNapoli (A) 2–1 · 30/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.20

1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)

2.30

1.20

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.48

1.47

xG against (recent avg)

0.73

1.09

Elo strength rating

1356

1661

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Fiorentina

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Como

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Fiorentina

2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Como

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Fiorentina at home · Como away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Fiorentina (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L

D 1

L 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)0.70

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score1

Como (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets0

Failed to score1

Fiorentina (home)Como (away)

D 1

L 2

W 2

D 1

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

0.70

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

2.00

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2

0–1

6.8%

0–2

5.7%

1–3

3.4%

0–3

2.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Como 3 wins · 0 draws · Fiorentina 2 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 3 of 5

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
14 Feb 2026	Como	1–2	Fiorentina	Serie A
27 Jan 2026	Fiorentina	1–3	Como	Coppa Italia
21 Sep 2025	Fiorentina	1–2	Como	Serie A
16 Feb 2025	Fiorentina	0–2	Como	Serie A
24 Nov 2024	Como	0–2	Fiorentina	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Fiorentina

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Genoa	Away	1–2	L
20/09	Napoli	Home	1–1	D
15/09	Pisa	Home	3–0	W
11/09	Venezia	Away	4–2	W
05/09	Torino	Home	1–2	L

Como

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
20/09	Frosinone	Away	0–2	L
14/09	Parma	Home	2–1	W
10/09	RB Leipzig	Home	4–1	W
04/09	Genoa	Away	4–1	W
30/08	Napoli	Away	2–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Fiorentina #19 · 4 pts — Como #7 · 11 pts

Fiorentina

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L

W 1

D 1

L 4

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)2.30

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards12

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.48

xG against (avg)0.73

Corners for (avg)4.10

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Como

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–1L

W 3

D 2

L 1

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets0

Failed to score1

Yellow cards4

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.47

xG against (avg)1.09

Corners for (avg)6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

FiorentinaComo

W 1

D 1

L 4

W 3

D 2

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.20

1.80

Goals conceded (avg)

2.30

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.48

1.47

xG against (avg)

0.73

1.09

Corners for (avg)

4.10

6.70

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Fiorentina

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Como

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Fiorentina

❌ M. Kean — Transfer negotiations
❌ R. Sottil — Back Injury
❌ F. Parisi — Jumpers Knee
❌ A. Atta — Abdominal strain

Como

❌ J. Addai — Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ M. Kean — Leg Injury

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws