Inter vs Fiorentina

Inter sit top of Serie A on 16 points from 6 games, while Fiorentina arrive 19th with just 4 points from 6. The gap in the table frames everything here: this is a leader protecting its position against a side scrapping near the bottom, and the model reflects that imbalance clearly.

The numbers behind the home side are strong. Inter's recent expected goals sit at 2.96, and their season-long attacking rate of 2.3506 dwarfs Fiorentina's 0.7855. Recent form reads WWDWL for Inter against LDWWL for the visitors, and the head-to-head record backs the favourite too — a 3-0 Inter win in October 2025 and a 2-1 victory in February 2025 sit alongside a 1-1 draw in March 2026. Inter's injury list is long (Mkhitaryan, Calhanoglu, Martinez among seven names), while Fiorentina are without Kean, Sottil, Parisi and Atta.

The headline call is a home win at 78.7 percent with confidence of 92, and the double chance 1X lands at 87.4 percent. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 55.7 percent, and both teams to score sits at just 49 percent — the model clearly expects Fiorentina's attack to struggle. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 9.8 percent, with 2-1, 1-0 and 3-0 all clustered close behind. Corners are projected at 9.9, giving Over 9.5 a 52.9 percent edge.

Value, if any, hides in the secondary markets rather than the outright result, where the price will likely be short. The honest caveat: Inter's seven absences are real, and a rotated or leggy side could turn a comfortable 2-0 into something scrappier — the 1-1 draw in March 2026 is the warning.