Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stadio Benito Stirpe β€’ β›… 17.1Β°C, 3 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance β€” 1X
Model 75.3% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 68% Β· Edge +7.5 pp
Best odds 1.47 Betano 1.471xBet 1.46Marathonbet 1.45
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 5.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.53 β†’ 2.55 β–²1% 77% 39.2% 2.55 Pinnacle 39.7% -0.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 72% 73.2% 1.47 Betano 65.7% +7.5 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 52.8% 1.44 William Hill 66% -13.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 51% 1.53 Betano 63.2% -12.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 64% 7.9% 13.00 Bet365 4% +3.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.2 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.4% 1.67 Bet365 55.7% +1.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Frosinone 1.61 – 1.06 Sassuolo Β· expected total 2.68

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Frosinone host Sassuolo at the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Friday night with both sides level on six games played but separated by two points in the table. Frosinone sit 9th on 10 points, Sassuolo 10th on 8, so this is a genuine mid-table six-pointer where the hosts can open a small gap with a win.

The model leans toward the home side. Frosinone's recent form reads LWWDW, while Sassuolo arrive with LWDWL. The expected goals split is telling: Frosinone are projected at 1.6144 against Sassuolo's 1.0628, with recent xG of 1.69 and 1.6 respectively. Sassuolo's injury list is the standout factor here, with ten names including D. Berardi, A. Pinamonti and I. KonΓ©, compared to three for Frosinone. The head-to-head is mixed, though Frosinone won the most recent meeting 1-0.

The headline tip is a home win at 39.2% probability, priced at 2.55, and the double chance 1X lands at 73.2%. Both teams to score is called Yes at 52.8% (odds 1.44), while Over 2.5 goals sits at 51% (odds 1.53). The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 7.9%, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 is tipped at 57.4% with an expected 12.2.

The honest caveat is that 39.2% is not a dominant home probability, and the 2.55 price offers only modest value. Sassuolo's recent xG of 1.6 shows they still create chances despite the absences, so the 1X is the safer route than the outright win.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Frosinone

Form (last 5)
LNapoli (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026WBenevento (H) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026WComo (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026DGenoa (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WVenezia (H) 3–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.69
xG against (recent avg)2.08
Elo strength rating1428
Players out3

Sassuolo

Form (last 5)
LMonza (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026WJuventus (H) 3–2 Β· 13/09/2026DBologna (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026WTorino (H) 2–1 Β· 29/08/2026LAtalanta (A) 1–2 Β· 23/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.60
xG against (recent avg)1.37
Elo strength rating1506
Players out10
FrosinoneSassuolo
LMonza (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026WJuventus (H) 3–2 Β· 13/09/2026DBologna (A) 2–2 Β· 06/09/2026WTorino (H) 2–1 Β· 29/08/2026LAtalanta (A) 1–2 Β· 23/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.69
1.60
xG against (recent avg)
2.08
1.37
Elo strength rating
1428
1506
Players out
3
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Frosinone

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Sassuolo

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Frosinone

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Sassuolo

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Frosinone at home Β· Sassuolo away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Frosinone (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–1L
W 2
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Sassuolo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Frosinone (home)Sassuolo (away)
W 2
L 1
D 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
7.9%
2–1
7.6%
2–0
7.1%
3–1
4.1%
3–0
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Frosinone 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Sassuolo 4 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 8

2
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 May 2025 Sassuolo 0–1 Frosinone Serie B
14 Dec 2024 Frosinone 1–2 Sassuolo Serie B
09 Mar 2024 Sassuolo 1–0 Frosinone Serie A
17 Sep 2023 Frosinone 4–2 Sassuolo Serie A
05 May 2019 Sassuolo 2–2 Frosinone Serie A
16 Dec 2018 Frosinone 0–2 Sassuolo Serie A
08 May 2016 Frosinone 0–1 Sassuolo Serie A
06 Jan 2016 Sassuolo 2–2 Frosinone Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Frosinone

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Napoli Away 0–3 L
02/10 Benevento Home 2–1 W
20/09 Como Home 2–0 W
12/09 Genoa Away 1–1 D
06/09 Venezia Home 3–2 W

Sassuolo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/09 Monza Away 1–2 L
13/09 Juventus Home 3–2 W
06/09 Bologna Away 2–2 D
29/08 Torino Home 2–1 W
23/08 Atalanta Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Frosinone #9 Β· 10 pts β€”  Sassuolo #10 Β· 8 pts

Frosinone

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–2L
W 3
D 1
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards12
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.69
xG against (avg)2.08
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sassuolo

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–2L
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards7
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.60
xG against (avg)1.37
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
FrosinoneSassuolo
W 3
D 1
L 2
W 2
D 2
L 2
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.80
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
2
0
Yellow cards
12
7
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.69
1.60
xG against (avg)
2.08
1.37
Corners for (avg)
6.30
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Frosinone

0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Sassuolo

1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Frosinone

  • ❌ F. Ghedjemis β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ D. Birligea β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Grillitsch β€” Thigh Injury

Sassuolo

  • ❌ D. Berardi β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Pinamonti β€” Injury
  • ❌ I. KonΓ© β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ C. Volpato β€” Thigh Problems
  • ❌ E. Pieragnolo β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ S. Walukiewicz β€” Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ Fali CandΓ© β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ D. Boloca β€” Muscle Bruise
  • ❌ Y. Paz β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ J. Idzes β€” Muscle Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws