Predictions β†’ Italy Serie A

Parma vs Torino

Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stadio Ennio Tardini β€’ β˜€οΈ 15.6Β°C, 1 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 32.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 69% 68.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 55.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 74% 28.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Parma 1.09 – 0.91 Torino Β· expected total 2.00

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Monday night at the Stadio Ennio Tardini brings a genuine relegation six-pointer, with Parma 18th on 4 points from 6 games and Torino 15th on 4 points from 5. Both arrive desperate, and the model leans toward the hosts, giving Parma a 32.9 percent win probability at 75 confidence, with the draw at 28.7 percent and 74 confidence. The double chance 1X sits at 68.5 percent, the safest route into this fixture.

The attacking numbers explain the caution. Parma's recent expected goals read just 0.71 against Torino's 0.95, and the goal expectations of 1.0891 for the home side and 0.9135 for the visitors point to a tight, low-quality contest. Form is poor on both sides: Parma have LWLDL from their last five, Torino DLWLL. The treatment rooms are crowded too, with eight Parma absentees including Bernabe and Almqvist, and seven Torino names out such as Biraghi and Pellegri.

Under 2.5 goals is the standout at 55.9 percent, and BTTS No at 49.1 percent fits the same script. The correct score market favours 1-0 at 10.9 percent, with 1-0 (13.36), 2-0 (8.01) and 2-1 (7.31) the leading scorelines. Corners offer a secondary angle, Over 9.5 at 53.1 percent against an expected 10.

The honest caveat: a 32.9 percent home win is not a strong edge, and with both defences depleted, one early goal could blow the unders thesis apart. Stake accordingly.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Parma

Form (last 5)
LInter (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026WGenoa (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026LComo (A) 1–2 Β· 14/09/2026DMonza (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026LCremonese (H) 0–2 Β· 01/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.60
xG against (recent avg)1.44
Elo strength rating1422
Players out8

Torino

Form (last 5)
DBologna (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LAS Roma (H) 0–2 Β· 14/09/2026WFiorentina (A) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026LMonza (H) 0–1 Β· 01/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 1–2 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.81
xG against (recent avg)1.26
Elo strength rating1459
Players out7
ParmaTorino
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.60
0.81
xG against (recent avg)
1.44
1.26
Elo strength rating
1422
1459
Players out
8
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Parma

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Torino

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Parma

2nd worst attack (0.70 goals/game)

Torino

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Parma at home Β· Torino away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Parma (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Torino (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–1L
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Parma (home)Torino (away)
W 1
D 1
L 1
W 1
D 1
L 1
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.30
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.9%
2–0
6.5%
2–1
6%
3–0
2.4%
3–1
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Parma 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Torino 3 wins Β· avg 2.6 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 Mar 2026 Torino 4–1 Parma Serie A
29 Sep 2025 Parma 2–1 Torino Serie A
08 Mar 2025 Parma 2–2 Torino Serie A
05 Jan 2025 Torino 0–0 Parma Serie A
03 May 2021 Torino 1–0 Parma Serie A
03 Jan 2021 Parma 0–3 Torino Serie A
20 Jun 2020 Torino 1–1 Parma Serie A
30 Sep 2019 Parma 3–2 Torino Serie A
06 Apr 2019 Parma 0–0 Torino Serie A
10 Nov 2018 Torino 1–2 Parma Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Parma

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Inter Away 0–3 L
20/09 Genoa Home 2–1 W
14/09 Como Away 1–2 L
06/09 Monza Home 1–1 D
01/09 Cremonese Home 0–2 L

Torino

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Bologna Away 1–1 D
14/09 AS Roma Home 0–2 L
05/09 Fiorentina Away 2–1 W
01/09 Monza Home 0–1 L
29/08 Sassuolo Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Parma #18 Β· 4 pts β€”  Torino #15 Β· 4 pts

Parma

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score3
Yellow cards8
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)1.44
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Torino

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–3L
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards4
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.81
xG against (avg)1.26
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
ParmaTorino
W 1
D 1
L 4
W 1
D 1
L 3
Played
6
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.60
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
8
4
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.60
0.81
xG against (avg)
1.44
1.26
Corners for (avg)
4.50
4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Parma

1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
2
scored conceded

Torino

1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Parma

  • ❌ S. Britschgi β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Joujou β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Bernabe β€” Inactive
  • ❌ O. Diallo β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Valenti β€” Rest
  • ❌ H. Nicolussi β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ P. Almqvist β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ A. Ndiaye β€” Knock

Torino

  • ❌ F. Anjorin β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ E. Comert β€” Red Card
  • ❌ C. Biraghi β€” Illness
  • ❌ F. Israel β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ C. Casadei β€” Rest
  • ❌ P. Pellegri β€” Jumpers Knee
  • ❌ C. Adams β€” Muscle Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws