Padova vs Empoli
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Stadio Euganeo • ⛅ 11.2°C, 5 km/h partly cloudy
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.14 → 2.16 ▲1% | Pinnacle2.16 | 48.3% | +4.3% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.33 | 75.5% | +0.4% |
| BTTS | No | 1xBet2.01 | 48.2% · Yes 51.8% | -3.1% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Marathonbet1.84 | 51.7% · Over 48.3% | -4.9% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Marathonbet7.30 | 10.7% | -21.9% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 58.1% · Over 41.9% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Padova · Home
Padova's recent record is mixed: two wins, one draw and two losses in five, with 5 goals for and 5 against. The latest head-to-head at home was a 1-0 win over Empoli on 12 Apr 2026, and their model expected goals of 1.74 is the highest figure in this matchup.
Empoli · Away
Empoli are without a win in five, drawing two and losing three, with 11 goals conceded and no clean sheets. Their model expected goals of 0.95 is well below Padova's, and their most recent away match ended in a 1-2 loss at Cesena.
Padova's Edge Over Winless Empoli
The clearest angle is the contrast between Empoli's five-match winless run and Padova's ability to edge tight games: Padova beat Avellino 1-0 away and Sudtirol 2-0 at home. Empoli have conceded 11 goals across those five matches and failed to keep a clean sheet, while Padova kept two clean sheets in the same span. The latest head-to-head, a 1-0 Padova win on 12 Apr 2026, supports a low-margin home result rather than a high-scoring game. The evidence supports Padova win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Padova 1.74 – 0.95 Empoli · expected total 2.69
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Padova
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Padova
Empoli
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie B
Padova
Empoli
Rank among 20 Serie B teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Padova at home · Empoli away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Padova (home)
Empoli (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Empoli 1 win · 0 draws · Padova 1 win · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 1 of 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Padova | 1–0 | Empoli | Serie B |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Empoli | 3–1 | Padova | Serie B |
📈 Recent Form
Padova
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Catanzaro | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 27/10 | Sudtirol | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Avellino | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Virtus Entella | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 11/10 | Carrarese | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Palermo | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Ascoli | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Cremonese | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 29/08 | Hellas Verona | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 23/08 | Pisa | Away | 1–0 | W |
Empoli
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Juve Stabia | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 27/10 | Cesena | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 23/10 | Vicenza Virtus | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Ascoli | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | Palermo | Home | 2–4 | L |
| 20/09 | Modena | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 11/09 | Arezzo | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Carrarese | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 30/08 | Mantova | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cremonese | Home | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie B
Padova #9 · 14 pts · Empoli #18 · 8 pts
Padova
Empoli
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Padova
Empoli
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie B predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws