Novara vs Desenzano Calvina
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 • 22:30 UTC+3 • Girone A - 12 • Stadio Silvio Piola • ☀️ 6.7°C, 3 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.95 → 2.12 ▲9% | Dafabet2.12 | 42.3% | -10.3% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.32 | 71.7% | -5.4% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair1.95 | 52.6% · Yes 47.4% | +2.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Bet3651.80 | 55.4% · Over 44.6% | -0.3% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Betano7.10 | 10% | -29% |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Model view
Model 1X2 split: Novara 42.3% · Draw 29.4% · Desenzano Calvina 28.3%. Selected outcome: Novara win.
Goals
Model expected goals: Novara 1.10, Desenzano Calvina 1.17, expected total 2.27.
Price check
The model favours Novara win, but the displayed price does not offer positive model EV.
Form / H2H
Novara: L-D-L-W-L in their last five matches.
Desenzano Calvina: W-L-L-W-W in their last five matches.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.
Limitations
Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Novara
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Novara
Desenzano Calvina
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Novara at home · Desenzano Calvina away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Novara (home)
Desenzano Calvina (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
📈 Recent Form
Novara
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Arzignano Valchiampo | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Albinoleffe | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 10/10 | Cittadella | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 04/10 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Ospitaletto | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Athletic Carpi | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 17/09 | Lumezzane | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 13/09 | Pergolettese | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 07/09 | Renate | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 31/08 | Folgore Caratese | Home | 2–2 | D |
Desenzano Calvina
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Giana Erminio | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 18/10 | Alcione | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 10/10 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Folgore Caratese | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Juventus U23 | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 21/09 | Treviso | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 17/09 | Lecco | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 13/09 | Arzignano Valchiampo | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 06/09 | Union Brescia | Away | 0–1 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie C - Girone A
Novara #16 · 10 pts · Desenzano Calvina #11 · 13 pts
Novara
Desenzano Calvina
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Novara
Desenzano Calvina
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Serie C - Girone A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: D. Kovacevic