Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna

Real Sociedad host Deportivo La Coruna at Anoeta on Sunday with the two sides level on 10 points after seven games, the visitors sitting seventh and the hosts eighth. It is an early-season six-pointer in the congested middle of La Liga, and the model leans clearly toward the home side.

Form reads WLLWD for Real Sociedad against DLDWW for Deportivo, so neither arrives flawless. The goal expectation numbers tell the real story: the hosts are projected at 1.4836 while Deportivo sit at 1.0916, though recent xG is far tighter at 0.92 for the home side and 0.95 for the away side. That gap between the season-long projection and recent shot quality is the tension running through this fixture. Both squads are depleted, with eight absentees listed for Real Sociedad including J. Gorrotxategi, A. Odriozola and I. Zubeldia, and five for Deportivo including Angelino and A. Traore.

The headline tip is a home win at 46.4 percent with confidence of 79, and the double chance 1X is the safer route at 72.8 percent. Both teams to score comes in at 51.5 percent, Under 2.5 goals at 46.5 percent, and the correct-score model favours 1-0 at 10.07, ahead of 2-1 at 9.16 and 2-0 at 8.39. Corners look the most interesting angle: an expected 10.6 with 57.5 percent for Over 9.5. The caveat is that 46.4 percent is not dominance, and with both attacks underperforming recent xG, a low-scoring draw is a live risk.