Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Stadion Maksimir β€’ β›… 11.4Β°C, 5 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 52.5% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 45.5% Β· Edge +8.9 pp
Best odds 2.20 Betfair 2.20BetVictor 2.15Betano 2.15
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.2% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 79% 43.4% 2.05 Dafabet 49.1% -5.7 pp
Double Chance 1X 69% 69.3% 1.29 Marathonbet 75.1% -5.8 pp
BTTS No 83% 52.5% 2.20 Betfair 43.6% +8.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.3% 2.06 1xBet 47% +5.3 pp
Correct Score 1-0 71% 12.2% 8.50 Bet365 6.1% +6.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53% 1.85 Betano 51.4% +1.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 0.99 – 0.82 Anderlecht Β· expected total 1.81

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Dinamo Zagreb host Anderlecht at Stadion Maksimir on Thursday night with both clubs desperate for a first Europa League league-stage win. Zagreb sit 19th on 1 point from 1 game, while Anderlecht are 23rd with 0 points from 1, so the stakes are simple: three points here could shape the knockout-phase picture.

The model leans toward the hosts. Dinamo's recent form reads WDLWW, Anderlecht's WWWLW, and the underlying numbers are tight: Dinamo's recent expected goals sit at 1.84 against Anderlecht's 1.77, though the match-level goal expectancy is far lower at 0.9873 for the home side and 0.824 for the visitors. That gap between recent attacking output and this fixture's projection points to a cagey, low-scoring night. The head-to-head record supports that read: the last two meetings produced 0-0 and 0-2, with no goal-fest in sight. Both squads are depleted, with Dinamo missing eight players and Anderlecht five.

The headline tip is a home win at 43.4% probability, priced at 2.05, with the double chance 1X rated at 69.3%. Under 2.5 goals carries 52.3% at 2.06, and BTTS No sits at 52.5% at 2.2. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 14.81%, part of a 12.2% top-score cluster. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is rated 53% with an expected 9.9.

The honest caveat is that 43.4% is not a dominant edge, and with eight Dinamo absences the lineup could shift the picture. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb

Form (last 5)
WNK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H) 3–2 Β· 20/09/2026DHapoel Beer Sheva (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026LNK Osijek (A) 2–4 Β· 12/09/2026WBedem Ivankovo (A) 4–0 Β· 09/09/2026WHNK Gorica (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.34
xG against (recent avg)1.06
Elo strength rating1388
Players out8

Anderlecht

Form (last 5)
WCercle Brugge (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WReims (H) 3–0 Β· 02/10/2026WZulte Waregem (H) 3–0 Β· 19/09/2026LLyon (H) 1–2 Β· 16/09/2026WKV Mechelen (A) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.28
xG against (recent avg)0.83
Elo strength rating1370
Players out5
Dinamo ZagrebAnderlecht
WNK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H) 3–2 Β· 20/09/2026DHapoel Beer Sheva (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026LNK Osijek (A) 2–4 Β· 12/09/2026WBedem Ivankovo (A) 4–0 Β· 09/09/2026WHNK Gorica (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
WCercle Brugge (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WReims (H) 3–0 Β· 02/10/2026WZulte Waregem (H) 3–0 Β· 19/09/2026LLyon (H) 1–2 Β· 16/09/2026WKV Mechelen (A) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
0
5
xG for (recent avg)
1.34
1.28
xG against (recent avg)
1.06
0.83
Elo strength rating
1388
1370
Players out
8
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Dinamo Zagreb

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Anderlecht

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Dinamo Zagreb at home Β· Anderlecht away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Dinamo Zagreb (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Anderlecht (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Dinamo Zagreb (home)Anderlecht (away)
W 2
D 1
Played
0
3
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.30
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
12.2%
2–0
6.6%
2–1
5.4%
3–0
2.2%
3–1
1.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Anderlecht 0 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Dinamo Zagreb 1 win Β· avg 1 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 2

1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 Dec 2018 Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 Anderlecht UEFA Europa League
04 Oct 2018 Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Dinamo Zagreb

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home 3–2 W
16/09 Hapoel Beer Sheva Away 0–0 D
12/09 NK Osijek Away 2–4 L
09/09 Bedem Ivankovo Away 4–0 W
05/09 HNK Gorica Home 1–0 W

Anderlecht

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Cercle Brugge Away 2–1 W
02/10 Reims Home 3–0 W
19/09 Zulte Waregem Home 3–0 W
16/09 Lyon Home 1–2 L
11/09 KV Mechelen Away 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb #19 Β· 1 pts β€”  Anderlecht #23 Β· 0 pts

Dinamo Zagreb

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.34
xG against (avg)1.06
Corners for (avg)5.30
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Anderlecht

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards17
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.28
xG against (avg)0.83
Corners for (avg)6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Dinamo ZagrebAnderlecht
D 1
L 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
2.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.90
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
0
17
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.34
1.28
xG against (avg)
1.06
0.83
Corners for (avg)
5.30
6.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Dinamo Zagreb

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Anderlecht

3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Dinamo Zagreb

  • ❌ D. Beljo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Mudrazija β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ I. Nevistic β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ N. Nsoki β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ S. Radeljic β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Rodriguez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ P. Tabinas β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ F. Topic β€” Off the roster

Anderlecht

  • ❌ G. Biancone β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ I. Camara β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ L. Hey β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ I. Koutsoupias β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ K. Sardella β€” Thigh Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws