Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • Chorten Arena • ⛅ 8.8°C, 3 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 48.7% · Market best price ≈ 42.9% · Edge +7.1 pp

Best odds 2.33 Pinnacle 2.331xBet 2.33Bet365 2.30

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 2.5% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	87%	64.9%	1.44	Betano	71%	-6.1 pp
Double Chance	1X	67%	65.7%	1.12	Betano	88.8%	-23.1 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	48.9%	1.87	Betfair	51%	-2.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	81%	48.7%	2.33	Pinnacle	41.6%	+7.1 pp
Correct Score	1-0	66%	9.4%	8.00	Bet365	6.3%	+3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.6 exp.)	Under 9.5	63%	54.1%	1.97	1xBet	46.5%	+7.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.12 – 1.03 Ararat-Armenia · expected total 2.15

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Jagiellonia host Ararat-Armenia at the Chorten Arena on Thursday, 15 October 2026, with both clubs still hunting their first points of this Europa League league phase after opening-round defeats. For Jagiellonia, sitting 21st on 0 points from 1 game, this is the kind of home fixture that shapes a campaign; Ararat-Armenia, 33rd and also on 0 points from 1, arrive needing something to avoid an early uphill struggle.

The model leans firmly toward the hosts. Jagiellonia's recent form reads LLWLL, and their expected goals of 1.1165 for this match against Ararat-Armenia's 1.03 suggest a tight, low-margin contest rather than a rout. The visitors' form of WLWWL is arguably the more encouraging of the two, and with no head-to-head history to lean on, the numbers carry extra weight. Jagiellonia's injury list is a genuine concern, with D. Drachal, Y. Kobayashi, C. Polak, D. Rallis, O. Sow and Z. Zalewski all absent, while Ararat-Armenia are missing only P. Ayongo.

The headline tip is a home win at 64.9 percent, priced at 1.44, with the double chance 1X at 65.7 percent. Both teams to score lands at 48.9 percent and odds of 1.87, while Under 2.5 goals carries 48.7 percent at 2.33 — the more attractive of the two given the modest expected goals. A 1-0 correct score is the model's top pick at 9.4 percent, with 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 the leading scorelines. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 54.1 percent, with an expected 8.6.

The honest caveat: Jagiellonia's six absences and poor recent form mean the 1.44 home price offers little cushion, and Ararat-Armenia's better run makes an upset far from unthinkable.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Jagiellonia

Form (last 5)

LGornik Zabrze (H) 1–3 · 10/10/2026LPolonia Warszawa (H) 1–2 · 03/10/2026WSuduva Marijampole (H) 5–0 · 29/09/2026LLegia Warszawa (H) 1–3 · 20/09/2026LOlympiakos Piraeus (A) 1–2 · 16/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)1.12

xG against (recent avg)1.94

Elo strength rating1355

Players out6

Ararat-Armenia

Form (last 5)

WShirak (A) 3–1 · 20/09/2026LSparta Praha (H) 1–4 · 16/09/2026WSyunik (H) 3–0 · 11/09/2026WArarat (A) 1–0 · 05/09/2026LPyunik Yerevan (A) 1–2 · 31/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.70

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.00

xG against (recent avg)0.00

Elo strength rating1329

Players out1

JagielloniaArarat-Armenia

WShirak (A) 3–1 · 20/09/2026LSparta Praha (H) 1–4 · 16/09/2026WSyunik (H) 3–0 · 11/09/2026WArarat (A) 1–0 · 05/09/2026LPyunik Yerevan (A) 1–2 · 31/08/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

2.00

1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.00

1.70

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.12

0.00

xG against (recent avg)

1.94

0.00

Elo strength rating

1355

1329

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Jagiellonia

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

5/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Ararat-Armenia

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia

2nd best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Ararat-Armenia

2nd worst attack (1.00 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (1.70 conceded/game)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Jagiellonia at home · Ararat-Armenia away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Jagiellonia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L

W 2

Played2

Goals scored (avg)3.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.50

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Ararat-Armenia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L

D 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Jagiellonia (home)Ararat-Armenia (away)

W 2

D 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

0.50

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

9.4%

2–1

2–0

5.9%

3–1

2.2%

3–0

2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Jagiellonia

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Gornik Zabrze	Home	1–3	L
03/10	Polonia Warszawa	Home	1–2	L
29/09	Suduva Marijampole	Home	5–0	W
20/09	Legia Warszawa	Home	1–3	L
16/09	Olympiakos Piraeus	Away	1–2	L

Ararat-Armenia

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
20/09	Shirak	Away	3–1	W
16/09	Sparta Praha	Home	1–4	L
11/09	Syunik	Home	3–0	W
05/09	Ararat	Away	1–0	W
31/08	Pyunik Yerevan	Away	1–2	L

📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia #21 · 0 pts — Ararat-Armenia #33 · 0 pts

Jagiellonia

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards8

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.12

xG against (avg)1.94

Corners for (avg)2.00

Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Ararat-Armenia

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L

L 1

Played1

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards6

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.00

xG against (avg)0.00

Corners for (avg)2.00

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

JagielloniaArarat-Armenia

L 1

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.00

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

1.70

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.12

0.00

xG against (avg)

1.94

0.00

Corners for (avg)

2.00

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/1

0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Jagiellonia

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Ararat-Armenia

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Jagiellonia

❌ D. Drachal — Off the roster
❌ Y. Kobayashi — Injury
❌ C. Polak — Off the roster
❌ D. Rallis — Off the roster
❌ O. Sow — Injury
❌ Z. Zalewski — Off the roster

Ararat-Armenia

❌ P. Ayongo — Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws