Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen

Next match: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 3 β€’ Pankritio Stadium β€’ ☁️ 20.4Β°C, 10 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 87% 65.8% 1.37 1xBet 74.1% -8.3 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 67.2% 1.17 1xBet 83.7% -16.5 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.2% 1.70 Marathonbet 54.9% -5.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 48.1% 1.50 Betano 64.3% -16.2 pp
Correct Score 0-1 62% 6.9% 8.60 Marathonbet 5.7% +1.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.2 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 55.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: OFI 1.28 – 1.12 Bayer Leverkusen Β· expected total 2.40

🧠 Match Preview

OFI host Bayer Leverkusen at the Pankritio Stadium on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with the visitors sitting second in the Europa League league stage on 6 points from 2 games while the Greek side languish 18th on 3 points. The stakes are clear: Leverkusen can tighten their grip on the top spots, OFI need something to avoid drifting further adrift.

The model leans heavily on recent form. Leverkusen arrive with WWWDW, OFI with LDWWW, and the underlying numbers split sharply: the away side's recent expected goals sit at 2.37 against OFI's 0.84. Season-long attacking output is closer, with 1.2816 expected goals for the hosts and 1.121 for Leverkusen, but the standings and the injury list tell the story. OFI are missing N. Marinakis, D. Nikolaou, A. Leya Iseka and C. Sielis; Leverkusen's absentees run to ten names including V. Boniface, J. Hofmann and N. Tella, so rotation is likely.

The headline tip is an away win at 65.8% probability, priced at 1.37, with confidence rated 87. Double chance 12 carries 67.2%. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 49.2% and odds of 1.7, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 48.1% and 1.5. The most probable correct score is 0-1 at 6.9%, followed by 1-2 at 7.29% and 0-2 at 5.69%. Corners look the value angle: Over 9.5 is rated 55.5% with an expected 11.2.

The honest caveat is Leverkusen's lengthy injury list and the modest 1.121 expected goals figure, which suggests the 1.37 price offers little margin for error.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

OFI

Form (last 5)
LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026DAsteras Tripolis (H) 2–2 Β· 20/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 2–0 Β· 17/09/2026WOlympiakos Piraeus (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026WNestos Chrisoupolis (H) 3–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1378
Players out4

Bayer Leverkusen

Form (last 5)
WFSV Mainz 05 (A) 4–3 Β· 10/10/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WCelje (H) 2–0 Β· 16/09/2026DFC Augsburg (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WUnion Berlin (H) 4–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.66
xG against (recent avg)0.64
Elo strength rating1402
Players out10
OFIBayer Leverkusen
LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026DAsteras Tripolis (H) 2–2 Β· 20/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 2–0 Β· 17/09/2026WOlympiakos Piraeus (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026WNestos Chrisoupolis (H) 3–0 Β· 09/09/2026
WFSV Mainz 05 (A) 4–3 Β· 10/10/2026WRB Leipzig (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WCelje (H) 2–0 Β· 16/09/2026DFC Augsburg (A) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WUnion Berlin (H) 4–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.30
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.61
1.66
xG against (recent avg)
0.74
0.64
Elo strength rating
1378
1402
Players out
4
10

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

OFI

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Bayer Leverkusen

Won 3 in a row Unbeaten 5
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

OFI

3rd best attack (2.30 goals/game) Best defence (0.00 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (17%)

Bayer Leverkusen

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

OFI at home Β· Bayer Leverkusen away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

OFI (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Bayer Leverkusen (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
OFI (home)Bayer Leverkusen (away)
W 2
Played
2
0
Goals scored (avg)
2.50
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
6.9%
1–2
5.7%
0–2
4.4%
1–3
2.1%
0–3
1.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

OFI

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 AEK Athens FC Away 0–3 L
20/09 Asteras Tripolis Home 2–2 D
17/09 1899 Hoffenheim Home 2–0 W
12/09 Olympiakos Piraeus Away 1–0 W
09/09 Nestos Chrisoupolis Home 3–0 W

Bayer Leverkusen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 FSV Mainz 05 Away 4–3 W
20/09 RB Leipzig Home 2–0 W
16/09 Celje Home 2–0 W
12/09 FC Augsburg Away 2–2 D
05/09 Union Berlin Home 4–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

OFI #18 Β· 3 pts β€”  Bayer Leverkusen #2 Β· 6 pts

OFI

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–1L
W 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)3.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Bayer Leverkusen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–0L
W 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.66
xG against (avg)0.64
Corners for (avg)8.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
OFIBayer Leverkusen
W 1
L 1
W 2
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.61
1.66
xG against (avg)
0.74
0.64
Corners for (avg)
3.40
8.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

OFI

0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Bayer Leverkusen

1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

OFI

  • ❌ N. Marinakis β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ D. Nikolaou β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Leya Iseka β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Sielis β€” Inactive

Bayer Leverkusen

  • ❌ V. Boniface β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ M. Culbreath β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ G. Doue β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ K. Eichhorn β€” Illness
  • ❌ J. Hofmann β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ I. Maza β€” Illness
  • ❌ T. Oermann β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ N. Tella β€” Injury
  • ❌ E. Ben Seghir β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Kofane β€” Muscle Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws