Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Vitality Stadium β€’ ☁️ 16.9Β°C, 16 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 51.8% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 31.3% Β· Edge +21.7 pp
Best odds 3.20 Bet365 3.20BetVictor 3.13Pinnacle 3.12
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 7.5% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 92% 78.4% 1.21 1xBet 83.4% -5 pp
Double Chance 1X 71% 71.5% 1.05 William Hill 94.1% -22.6 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.4% 1.91 William Hill 50.5% +0.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.8% 3.20 Bet365 30.1% +21.7 pp
Correct Score 1-0 70% 11.2% 11.00 Bet365 4.7% +6.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.7% 2.14 1xBet 46.4% +7.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Bournemouth 1.20 – 0.88 Sturm Graz Β· expected total 2.08

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Bournemouth welcome Sturm Graz to the Vitality Stadium for Matchday 2 of the Europa League league stage, and the stakes are already meaningful. The hosts sit 10th on 3 points from 1 game, while the Austrians are 17th with 1 point from 1, so a home win would give Bournemouth real breathing room in the table.

The model sees this as a clear home setup. Bournemouth's recent expected goals sit at 1.21, with Sturm Graz at 1.45, but the match-level numbers lean heavily toward the Cherries: 1.2026 expected goals for the home side against 0.8785 for the visitors. Form reads LLWDW for Bournemouth and WWLDW for Sturm Graz, so neither arrives flawless, and both camps carry injury lists β€” eight names for the hosts, five for the away side β€” which adds rotation risk.

The headline tip is a Home win at 78.4% probability, priced at 1.21, with confidence at 92. Double chance 1X comes in at 71.5%. Where value may hide is in the goals markets: Under 2.5 lands at 51.8% yet is offered at 3.2, and BTTS No sits at 51.4% at 1.91. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 11.2%, with 1-0 (13.69), 2-0 (9.03) and 2-1 (7.93) leading the top scores. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.7%, with an expected 8.8.

The honest caveat: with no head-to-head history and both squads depleted, the low-scoring scripts carry real variance β€” the 1.21 home price leaves almost no margin for error.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bournemouth

Form (last 5)
LChelsea (A) 1–5 Β· 10/10/2026LLiverpool (H) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026WReal Sociedad (A) 2–1 Β· 17/09/2026DBrentford (H) 2–2 Β· 12/09/2026WLincoln (H) 4–0 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.74
xG against (recent avg)0.67
Elo strength rating1369
Players out8

Sturm Graz

Form (last 5)
WAustria Vienna (A) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WFloridsdorfer AC (H) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026LRed Bull Salzburg (A) 0–3 Β· 20/09/2026DRennes (H) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WLask Linz (H) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.06
xG against (recent avg)1.37
Elo strength rating1311
Players out5
BournemouthSturm Graz
WAustria Vienna (A) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WFloridsdorfer AC (H) 3–1 Β· 02/10/2026LRed Bull Salzburg (A) 0–3 Β· 20/09/2026DRennes (H) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WLask Linz (H) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
0.74
1.06
xG against (recent avg)
0.67
1.37
Elo strength rating
1369
1311
Players out
8
5

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bournemouth

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Sturm Graz

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth

2nd best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Sturm Graz

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bournemouth at home Β· Sturm Graz away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bournemouth (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Sturm Graz (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Bournemouth (home)Sturm Graz (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.2%
2–0
7.4%
2–1
6.5%
3–0
3%
3–1
2.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bournemouth

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Chelsea Away 1–5 L
20/09 Liverpool Home 0–1 L
17/09 Real Sociedad Away 2–1 W
12/09 Brentford Home 2–2 D
08/09 Lincoln Home 4–0 W

Sturm Graz

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Austria Vienna Away 2–0 W
02/10 Floridsdorfer AC Home 3–1 W
20/09 Red Bull Salzburg Away 0–3 L
16/09 Rennes Home 0–0 D
13/09 Lask Linz Home 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Bournemouth #10 Β· 3 pts β€”  Sturm Graz #17 Β· 1 pts

Bournemouth

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.74
xG against (avg)0.67
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sturm Graz

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.06
xG against (avg)1.37
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
BournemouthSturm Graz
W 1
D 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
1
Yellow cards
3
2
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.74
1.06
xG against (avg)
0.67
1.37
Corners for (avg)
3.90
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bournemouth

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Sturm Graz

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Bournemouth

  • ❌ M. Aarons β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ A. Adli β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ J. Araujo β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ F. Forster β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ D. Jebbison β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ E. J. Kroupi β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ V. Milosavljevic β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Sanchez β€” Off the roster

Sturm Graz

  • ❌ N. Geyrhofer β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ S. Jatta β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ A. Kayombo β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ E. Soglo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ S. Wlodarczyk β€” Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws