Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ β›… 12.7Β°C, 2 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 51.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 45.5% Β· Edge +8.2 pp
Best odds 2.20 William Hill 2.20Betfair 2.201xBet 2.17
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 34% 2.49 Pinnacle 39.8% -5.8 pp
Double Chance 1X 67% 66% 1.47 Betano 67.1% -1.1 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.4% 2.20 William Hill 43.2% +8.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 55.4% 2.03 Pinnacle 47.9% +7.5 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.6% 9.50 Bet365 5.3% +4.3 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 64% 27.5% 3.50 Betfair 27.3% +0.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.3 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 54.8% 1.85 Betano 51.3% +3.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Celje 1.10 – 1.01 Omonia Nicosia Β· expected total 2.11

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Celje host Omonia Nicosia in Europa League League Stage action on Thursday, with both sides still finding their feet in the new format. The Slovenians sit 31st with 0 points from 1 game, while the Cypriots are 16th on 3 points from 1 β€” a gap that makes this a genuine six-pointer even at this early stage.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Celje a 34% win probability at odds of 2.49, with the double chance 1X rated at 66%. Recent form is mixed: Celje arrive on DLLLW, Omonia on WWDWL. Expected goals are tight β€” 1.1023 for the hosts against 1.0121 for the visitors β€” and the recent xG split (0.9 home, 0.32 away) hints at a low-scoring, cagey affair. Both camps have injury concerns: Kotnik and Pisek miss out for Celje, while Akintola, Eiting and Kitsos are absent for Omonia.

The standout angles sit in the goals markets. Under 2.5 is priced at 2.03 with a 55.4% model probability, and BTTS No comes in at 2.2 with 51.4%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.96%, part of a correct-score cluster that also features 2-1 (7.42%) and 2-0 (7.34%). Corners look low too, with an expected 8.3 and Under 9.5 at 54.8%.

The honest caveat: a 34% home win is the model's pick, not a strong one, and the draw carries a real 27.5% at 64% confidence. With no head-to-head history to lean on and both attacks misfiring, this is a match where the unders and the draw deserve as much respect as the home tip.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Celje

Form (last 5)
DMura (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026LBayer Leverkusen (A) 0–2 Β· 16/09/2026LBravo (A) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026LKoper (H) 0–1 Β· 06/09/2026WAluminij (A) 2–0 Β· 02/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.90
xG against (recent avg)1.93
Elo strength rating1331
Players out2

Omonia Nicosia

Form (last 5)
WKrasava Ypsonas (H) 4–1 Β· 20/09/2026WCelta Vigo (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026DApollon Limassol (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAris (A) 4–1 Β· 07/09/2026LPafos (H) 0–1 Β· 03/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.32
xG against (recent avg)1.17
Elo strength rating1390
Players out3
CeljeOmonia Nicosia
DMura (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026LBayer Leverkusen (A) 0–2 Β· 16/09/2026LBravo (A) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026LKoper (H) 0–1 Β· 06/09/2026WAluminij (A) 2–0 Β· 02/09/2026
WKrasava Ypsonas (H) 4–1 Β· 20/09/2026WCelta Vigo (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026DApollon Limassol (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAris (A) 4–1 Β· 07/09/2026LPafos (H) 0–1 Β· 03/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.00
0.80
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.90
0.32
xG against (recent avg)
1.93
1.17
Elo strength rating
1331
1390
Players out
2
3

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Celje

Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Omonia Nicosia

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Celje at home Β· Omonia Nicosia away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Celje (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Omonia Nicosia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–1L
D 1
L 1
Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Celje (home)Omonia Nicosia (away)
D 1
L 1
Played
0
2
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.6%
2–1
6%
2–0
5.9%
3–1
2.2%
3–0
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Celje

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Mura Away 0–0 D
16/09 Bayer Leverkusen Away 0–2 L
12/09 Bravo Away 1–2 L
06/09 Koper Home 0–1 L
02/09 Aluminij Away 2–0 W

Omonia Nicosia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Krasava Ypsonas Home 4–1 W
16/09 Celta Vigo Home 1–0 W
12/09 Apollon Limassol Home 0–0 D
07/09 Aris Away 4–1 W
03/09 Pafos Home 0–1 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Celje #31 Β· 0 pts β€”  Omonia Nicosia #16 Β· 3 pts

Celje

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.90
xG against (avg)1.93
Corners for (avg)2.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Omonia Nicosia

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards5
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.32
xG against (avg)1.17
Corners for (avg)3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
CeljeOmonia Nicosia
L 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
0.80
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
0
5
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
0.90
0.32
xG against (avg)
1.93
1.17
Corners for (avg)
2.00
3.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Celje

0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Omonia Nicosia

0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Celje

  • ❌ A. Kotnik β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Pisek β€” Knee Injury

Omonia Nicosia

  • ❌ B. Akintola β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Eiting β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ F. Kitsos β€” Knee Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws