Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo vs Juventus

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ 🌀 17.4Β°C, 2 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 76% 34.7% 2.16 1xBet 46.1% -11.4 pp
Double Chance 12 68% 68% 1.33 Bet365 72.9% -4.9 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.5% 2.00 Betfair 48.1% +1.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 50% 1.81 1xBet 53.7% -3.7 pp
Correct Score 0-1 60% 5.7% 7.50 Bet365 6.8% -1.1 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 61% 27.2% 3.50 Dafabet 27.1% +0.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.3% 1.86 1xBet 54.7% -1.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.44 – 0.93 Juventus Β· expected total 2.37

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Celta Vigo host Juventus in Europa League League Stage action on Thursday, with the visitors already setting the pace. Juventus sit top of the standings on 3 points from 1 game, while Celta are down at 25th with 0 points from their single outing, so the Spanish side are under early pressure to get off the mark.

The model leans toward the away side, giving Juventus a 34.7 percent win probability at odds of 2.16, with confidence rated at 76. The double chance covering draw or away lands at 68 percent. Form backs the visitors: Juventus arrive on WWLDW, Celta on WLDDD. Expected goals tell a tighter story than the table might suggest, with Celta at 1.4429 and Juventus at 0.9292, though recent xG reads 1.63 for the hosts and 1.36 for the away side. The draw is priced at 27.2 percent with confidence 61.

For goals, Under 2.5 is the pick at 50 percent and odds of 1.81, while both teams to score says No at 49.5 percent, priced at 2. The correct score leans to 0-1 at 5.7 percent, with 0-1 the top listed scoreline at 7.42. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.3 percent, with an expected 8.9.

The obvious risk sits in the Juventus injury list, which is extensive, including Locatelli, Milik, Thuram and Yildiz. That depth drain could blunt the away side and hand Celta more of a foothold than the raw numbers imply.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Celta Vigo

Form (last 5)
WRacing Santander (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026LOmonia Nicosia (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DMalaga (H) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026DGetafe (A) 1–1 Β· 07/09/2026DReal Sociedad (A) 0–0 Β· 03/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.43
xG against (recent avg)0.48
Elo strength rating1540
Players out2

Juventus

Form (last 5)
WAtalanta (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 5–0 Β· 17/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WParma (H) 2–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)5.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.03
xG against (recent avg)0.42
Elo strength rating1379
Players out12
Celta VigoJuventus
WRacing Santander (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026LOmonia Nicosia (A) 0–1 Β· 16/09/2026DMalaga (H) 1–1 Β· 13/09/2026DGetafe (A) 1–1 Β· 07/09/2026DReal Sociedad (A) 0–0 Β· 03/09/2026
WAtalanta (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 5–0 Β· 17/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WParma (H) 2–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
5.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.43
1.03
xG against (recent avg)
0.48
0.42
Elo strength rating
1540
1379
Players out
2
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Celta Vigo

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Juventus

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Juventus

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Celta Vigo at home Β· Juventus away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Celta Vigo (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Juventus (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Celta Vigo (home)Juventus (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
5.7%
1–2
4.5%
0–2
3.1%
1–3
1.4%
2–3
1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Celta Vigo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Racing Santander Home 5–0 W
16/09 Omonia Nicosia Away 0–1 L
13/09 Malaga Home 1–1 D
07/09 Getafe Away 1–1 D
03/09 Real Sociedad Away 0–0 D

Juventus

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Atalanta Home 2–0 W
17/09 NEC Nijmegen Home 5–0 W
13/09 Sassuolo Away 2–3 L
06/09 AC Milan Home 1–1 D
29/08 Parma Home 2–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo #25 Β· 0 pts β€”  Juventus #1 Β· 3 pts

Celta Vigo

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.43
xG against (avg)0.48
Corners for (avg)4.60
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Juventus

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.03
xG against (avg)0.42
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Celta VigoJuventus
L 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
5.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
1
1
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.43
1.03
xG against (avg)
0.48
0.42
Corners for (avg)
4.60
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Celta Vigo

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Juventus

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Celta Vigo

  • ❌ A. Antanon β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ I. Aspas β€” Muscle Injury

Juventus

  • ❌ J. Boga β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabal β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Cambiaso β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Durmisi β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Ekhator β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Kelly β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Locatelli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Milik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Rugani β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ K. Thuram β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Yildiz β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ E. Zhegrova β€” Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws