Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Lyon vs Crystal Palace

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Parc Olympique Lyonnais β€’ β˜€οΈ 20.6Β°C, 1 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 48.7% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 42% Β· Edge +9.0 pp
Best odds 2.38 Betfair 2.38BetVictor 2.381xBet 2.37
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 79% 44.7% 2.29 Dafabet 44.1% +0.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 76.2% 1.40 Bet365 69.7% +6.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.7% 2.38 Betfair 39.7% +9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.7% 1.69 1xBet 57.4% -9.7 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.5% 10.00 Bet365 5.1% +4.4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.1% 1.91 Betano 49.9% +3.2 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Lyon 1.58 – 0.92 Crystal Palace Β· expected total 2.50

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lyon host Crystal Palace at Parc Olympique Lyonnais on Thursday in Europa League League Stage action, with both sides on 3 points after one game. Palace sit 2nd in the standings, Lyon 11th, so this is a chance for the French club to close ground in front of their own crowd.

The model leans toward the hosts. Lyon's recent form reads LWWDW, while Palace arrive with DWLWW. The expected goals split is telling: Lyon carry a home figure of 1.5823 against Palace's 0.9205, and recent xG backs that up at 1.82 versus 1.1. Palace's injury list is the headline concern, with seven absentees including J. Mateta, D. Henderson and J. Lerma, while Lyon are without Abner Vinicius and A. Hamdani.

The primary tip is a Lyon win at 44.7% probability, priced at 2.29. If you want a cushion, the double chance 1X lands at 76.2%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.7%, offered at 2.38, and Over 2.5 goals carries 47.7% at 1.69. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 9.5%, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.1%, with an expected 9.

The value question is whether 2.29 on a home win understates a 44.7% model read, especially given Palace's depleted squad. The honest caveat: the only recent head-to-head is a 2-0 Palace win in August 2023, and a 44.7% home probability is far from dominant, so the draw remains a live threat.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lyon

Form (last 5)
LLens (A) 1–2 Β· 09/10/2026WRennes (H) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAnderlecht (A) 2–1 Β· 16/09/2026DParis FC (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAuxerre (H) 3–1 Β· 04/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.54
xG against (recent avg)0.89
Elo strength rating1939
Players out2

Crystal Palace

Form (last 5)
DLeeds (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WLech Poznan (H) 4–0 Β· 17/09/2026LIpswich (H) 2–3 Β· 12/09/2026WMiddlesbrough (H) 3–0 Β· 08/09/2026WFulham (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)4.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.67
xG against (recent avg)1.09
Elo strength rating1376
Players out7
LyonCrystal Palace
LLens (A) 1–2 Β· 09/10/2026WRennes (H) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026WAnderlecht (A) 2–1 Β· 16/09/2026DParis FC (A) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026WAuxerre (H) 3–1 Β· 04/09/2026
DLeeds (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WLech Poznan (H) 4–0 Β· 17/09/2026LIpswich (H) 2–3 Β· 12/09/2026WMiddlesbrough (H) 3–0 Β· 08/09/2026WFulham (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
4.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.54
0.67
xG against (recent avg)
0.89
1.09
Elo strength rating
1939
1376
Players out
2
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lyon

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Crystal Palace

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Lyon

2nd best BTTS rate (67%)

Crystal Palace

Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lyon at home Β· Crystal Palace away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lyon (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Crystal Palace (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Lyon (home)Crystal Palace (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.5%
2–0
8.3%
2–1
7.6%
3–0
4.4%
3–1
4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Crystal Palace 1 win Β· 0 draws Β· Lyon 0 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 1

1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Aug 2023 Crystal Palace 2–0 Lyon Friendlies Clubs

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lyon

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Lens Away 1–2 L
19/09 Rennes Home 4–0 W
16/09 Anderlecht Away 2–1 W
12/09 Paris FC Away 0–0 D
04/09 Auxerre Home 3–1 W

Crystal Palace

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Leeds Away 0–0 D
17/09 Lech Poznan Home 4–0 W
12/09 Ipswich Home 2–3 L
08/09 Middlesbrough Home 3–0 W
05/09 Fulham Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Lyon #11 Β· 3 pts β€”  Crystal Palace #2 Β· 3 pts

Lyon

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards2
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.54
xG against (avg)0.89
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Crystal Palace

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)4.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.67
xG against (avg)1.09
Corners for (avg)3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
LyonCrystal Palace
W 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
4.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.54
0.67
xG against (avg)
0.89
1.09
Corners for (avg)
4.40
3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lyon

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Crystal Palace

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lyon

  • ❌ Abner Vinicius β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Hamdani β€” Inactive

Crystal Palace

  • ❌ C. Doucoure β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ Z. Gozo β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ E. Guessand β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ D. Henderson β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ J. Lerma β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ J. Mateta β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ C. Riad β€” Knee Injury

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws