Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen at Stadion Maksimir on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with the Croatian side chasing a second League Stage win and the Dutch visitors still hunting their first. The table tells the story: Dinamo sit 14th on 4 points from 2 games, while NEC are 27th with just 1 point from 2.

The model leans heavily on form and expected goals. Dinamo arrive with a WDLWW record and a recent expected-goals figure of 1.84, against a home scoring rate of 1.5515. NEC's form reads DDLLD, with recent expected goals of 1.03 and an away rate of just 0.7515. That gap shapes everything: the home win is priced at 57.5 percent with 84 percent confidence, and the double chance 1X at 80.1 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.6 percent, while Under 2.5 goals carries 47 percent. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.8 percent, with 2-0 (12.04), 2-1 (9.05), 3-0 (6.23) and 3-1 (4.68) rounding out the top correct scores. Corners point Under 9.5 at 56 percent, with an expected 7.9.

Both squads are depleted: Dinamo list nine absentees including Beljo and Nevistic, NEC also name nine. The value question is whether the bookmaker odds for the home win sit above the 57.5 percent implied by the model; if so, the straight home win is the play, with the 1X a safer anchor. The honest caveat is that 57.5 percent is not dominance, and with both sides missing nine players, a low-scoring, scrappy night could easily drift toward the draw.