Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 19:00 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • Groupama Aréna • ☀️ 9.2°C, 6 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 84% | 56.1% | 2.00 | Dafabet | 50.8% | +5.3 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 81% | 85.6% | 1.30 | Betano | 74.9% | +10.7 pp |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 53% | 2.38 | Betfair | 40.5% | +12.5 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 80% | 47.8% | 2.25 | Betfair | 43.2% | +4.6 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 75% | 14.3% | 9.50 | Bet365 | 5.6% | +8.7 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 63% | 54.4% | 1.91 | Betano | 49.9% | +4.5 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.63 – 0.57 Plzen · expected total 2.20
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans firmly toward the hosts. Ferencvaros arrive on a DWWDW run, whereas Plzen have stumbled through LLLDW form. The expected goals split is telling: 1.6327 for Ferencvaros against just 0.5698 for Plzen, with the visitors' recent xG at 1.2. Both squads are depleted — Ferencvaros list E. Botka, B. Nagy, B. Otvos, I. Pappoe, G. Szecsi and M. Bero out, while Plzen miss V. Jemelka, J. Paluska, M. Tvrdon, M. Vydra, with M. Doski and F. Wiegele doubtful.
The headline tip is a Home win at 56.1% probability, priced at 2 — a clear edge if you trust the model. Double chance 1X is rated 85.6%, the safest route. BTTS No carries 53% at 2.38, and Under 2.5 sits at 47.8% with odds of 2.25. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14.3%, with 2-0 (14.75) and 2-1 (8.41) close behind. Corners look interesting: Over 9.5 at 54.4% with an expected 10.6.
The honest caveat: the H2H is messy — Plzen won 3-0 in February 2025 and 1-3 in January 2024, so the visitors have upset this fixture before. With six Ferencvaros absentees, the 2.0 home price is fair rather than generous.
Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Ferencvarosi TC at home · Plzen away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Ferencvarosi TC (home)
Plzen (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Ferencvarosi TC 1 win · 2 draws · Plzen 2 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 2 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1–1 | Plzen | UEFA Europa League |
| 20 Feb 2025 | Plzen | 3–0 | Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Europa League |
| 13 Feb 2025 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1–0 | Plzen | UEFA Europa League |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1–3 | Plzen | Friendlies Clubs |
| 16 Jan 2023 | Plzen | 0–0 | Ferencvarosi TC | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Ferencvarosi TC
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Nyiregyhaza | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/09 | Celtic | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 12/09 | DEAC | Away | 7–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Ujpest | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 03/09 | Gyori ETO FC | Away | 3–0 | W |
Plzen
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Slavia Praha | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 17/09 | Union St. Gilloise | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 13/09 | Sigma Olomouc | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 09/09 | Hradec Králové | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 05/09 | Artis | Away | 3–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League
Ferencvarosi TC #6 · 3 pts — Plzen #34 · 0 pts
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Ferencvarosi TC
Plzen
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Ferencvarosi TC
- ❌ E. Botka — Inactive
- ❌ B. Nagy — Off the roster
- ❌ B. Otvos — Knee Injury
- ❌ I. Pappoe — Knee Injury
- ❌ G. Szecsi — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Bero — Injury
Plzen
- ❌ V. Jemelka — Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Paluska — Surgery
- ❌ M. Tvrdon — Off the roster
- ❌ M. Vydra — Knee Injury
- ❓ M. Doski (doubtful) — Injury
- ❓ F. Wiegele (doubtful) — Illness
More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws