Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Juventus vs Rennes

Next match: Thu, 22 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 3 β€’ Allianz Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 17.5Β°C, 0 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 48.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 73% 74.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 50.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.2 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Juventus 1.51 – 0.94 Rennes Β· expected total 2.45

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Juventus host Rennes at the Allianz Stadium on Thursday, 22 October 2026, with the Serie A side sitting top of the Europa League league phase on 3 points from 1 game, while Rennes are 18th on 1 point. The model leans home: a 48.9 percent win probability at 81 confidence, with double chance 1X at 74.7 percent. Juventus arrive on WWLDW, Rennes on LDWWW, so the away form is not to be dismissed lightly.

The goal numbers tell a tighter story. Expected goals read 1.5068 for Juventus and 0.9386 for Rennes, though recent xG flips that script: 1.36 home against 1.88 away. That tension explains Under 2.5 at 49.1 percent and BTTS No at 50.5 percent, with 1-0 the correct-score tip at 9.5 percent and the top scoreline listed at 11.85.

Value may hide in the corners market, where Over 9.5 carries a 10.2 expected count and 53.4 percent probability. The honest caveat: Juventus list twelve injuries, including Locatelli, Milik and Yildiz, so the home edge is thinner than the table suggests.

Updated 07 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Juventus

Form (last 5)
WAtalanta (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 5–0 Β· 17/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WParma (H) 2–0 Β· 29/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)5.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.03
xG against (recent avg)0.42
Elo strength rating1379
Players out12

Rennes

Form (last 5)
LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026WAngers (A) 2–1 Β· 06/09/2026WLe Mans (H) 3–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)1.56
Elo strength rating1351
Players outβ€”
JuventusRennes
WAtalanta (H) 2–0 Β· 20/09/2026WNEC Nijmegen (H) 5–0 Β· 17/09/2026LSassuolo (A) 2–3 Β· 13/09/2026DAC Milan (H) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026WParma (H) 2–0 Β· 29/08/2026
LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026WAngers (A) 2–1 Β· 06/09/2026WLe Mans (H) 3–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
5.00
0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.03
1.15
xG against (recent avg)
0.42
1.56
Elo strength rating
1379
1351
Players out
12
β€”

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Juventus

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Rennes

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Juventus at home Β· Rennes away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Juventus (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

Rennes (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Juventus (home)Rennes (away)
W 1
D 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
5.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.5%
2–0
7.9%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
4%
3–1
3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Juventus

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Atalanta Home 2–0 W
17/09 NEC Nijmegen Home 5–0 W
13/09 Sassuolo Away 2–3 L
06/09 AC Milan Home 1–1 D
29/08 Parma Home 2–0 W

Rennes

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19/09 Lyon Away 0–4 L
16/09 Sturm Graz Away 0–0 D
11/09 Marseille Home 1–0 W
06/09 Angers Away 2–1 W
30/08 Le Mans Home 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Juventus #1 Β· 3 pts β€”  Rennes #18 Β· 1 pts

Juventus

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)5.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards1
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.03
xG against (avg)0.42
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Rennes

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)1.56
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
JuventusRennes
W 1
D 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
5.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.03
1.15
xG against (avg)
0.42
1.56
Corners for (avg)
5.40
5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Juventus

0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Rennes

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Juventus

  • ❌ J. Boga β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabal β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ A. Cambiaso β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Durmisi β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Ekhator β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Kelly β€” Red Card
  • ❌ M. Locatelli β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Milik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Rugani β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ K. Thuram β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Yildiz β€” Foot Injury
  • ❌ E. Zhegrova β€” Off the roster

Rennes

No reported absences.

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws