Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom
Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 • 16:45 UTC+3 • League Stage - 2 • epet ARENA • ☁️ 12.9°C, 2 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 91% | 74.2% | 1.39 | Dafabet | 73.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 76% | 78.8% | 1.11 | Betano | 90.3% | -11.5 pp |
| BTTS | No | 83% | 52.7% | 2.00 | William Hill | 48.8% | +3.9 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81% | 48.7% | 2.43 | Pinnacle | 40% | +8.7 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 71% | 11.9% | 8.50 | Betfair | 6.1% | +5.8 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 67% | 57.8% | 1.65 | Betano | 57% | +0.8 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.48 – 0.77 Lillestrom · expected total 2.25
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model sees a firm edge for the hosts. Sparta's recent form reads WWWWL, and their recent expected goals sit at 1.55, against Lillestrom's 0.7. The season-long attacking numbers point the same way: 1.4816 expected goals for Sparta versus 0.7653 for Lillestrom. The away side arrive with LLWWW form and a lengthy injury list including L. Alperud, E. B. Garnas and C. Jebara, while Sparta carry eight absentees of their own — M. Andersen, E. Cobbaut, K. Hoever, S. Mannsverk, J. Martinec, O. Penxa, A. Sevinsky and E. Uchenna — so squad depth will be tested.
The headline tip is a Sparta win at 74.2% probability, priced at 1.39, with confidence rated 91. Double chance 1X lands at 78.8%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 52.7%, offered at 2, and Under 2.5 goals carries 48.7% at odds of 2.43. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 11.9%, with 2-0 (11.61%) and 2-1 (8.89%) close behind. Corners look active: Over 9.5 is tipped at 57.8% with an expected 12.5.
The honest caveat: Sparta's win price of 1.39 leaves little room for error, and with eight players out, the value may hide in the correct-score and Under 2.5 markets rather than the outright result.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — UEFA Europa League
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sparta Praha at home · Lillestrom away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Sparta Praha (home)
Lillestrom (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
📈 Recent Form
Sparta Praha
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Sigma Olomouc | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Ararat-Armenia | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 12/09 | FK Jablonec | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 09/09 | Viktoria Žižkov | Away | 5–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Hradec Králové | Away | 1–2 | L |
Lillestrom
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Viking | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 17/09 | Torreense | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Valerenga | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Brann | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 02/09 | Aurskog Finstadbru | Away | 3–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — UEFA Europa League
Sparta Praha #3 · 3 pts — Lillestrom #24 · 0 pts
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sparta Praha
Lillestrom
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sparta Praha
- ❌ M. Andersen — Knee Injury
- ❌ E. Cobbaut — Groin Injury
- ❌ K. Hoever — Hip Injury
- ❌ S. Mannsverk — Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Martinec — Health problems
- ❌ O. Penxa — Knee Injury
- ❌ A. Sevinsky — Red Card
- ❌ E. Uchenna — Groin Injury
Lillestrom
- ❌ L. Alperud — Injury
- ❌ E. B. Garnas — Knee Injury
- ❌ C. Jebara — Injury
More: UEFA Europa League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws