Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β’ 19:00 UTC+3 β’ League Stage - 2 β’ π€ 18.7Β°C, 4 km/h mostly clear
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 76% | 36.2% | 2.22 | Dafabet | 45.1% | -8.9 pp |
| Double Chance | 12 | 64% | 62.6% | 1.31 | Marathonbet | 74.7% | -12.1 pp |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 51.1% | 2.38 | William Hill | 40.5% | +10.6 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83% | 52.6% | 2.20 | Betfair | 44.3% | +8.3 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 67% | 9.9% | 10.00 | Betfair | 5.1% | +4.8 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 62% | 27.3% | 3.75 | Betfair | 25.3% | +2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 64% | 54.7% | 2.10 | Bet365 | 48.3% | +6.4 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Marseille 0.86 β 0.98 Olympiakos Piraeus Β· expected total 1.84
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model sees a low-scoring, tight affair. Expected goals read 0.8571 for Marseille and 0.9843 for Olympiakos, with recent xG slightly higher at 1.36 and 1.66 respectively. Marseille's form line is LLLLL, Olympiakos arrive at WWLWD. Both squads are depleted: Marseille miss G. Kondogbia and T. Nnadi, while Olympiakos are without Clayton, A. El Kaabi, K. Fortounis, D. Garcia, B. Popovic, J. Roca, L. Scipioni and Y. Yazici.
The headline tip is a home win at 36.2 percent, priced at 2.22, with confidence 76. Double chance 12 carries 62.6 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.1 percent (2.38), and Under 2.5 lands at 52.6 percent (2.2). The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 9.9 percent, with 2-0 at 5.83 and 2-1 at 5.73. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 54.7 percent, expected 10.8. The draw is rated 27.3 percent with confidence 62.
Value may hide in the home win if you trust the venue factor, and in Under 2.5 given both attacks are blunted. The honest caveat: Marseille's LLLLL run and those eight Olympiakos absences make this volatile, and a 36.2 percent home probability is far from dominant.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Marseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Marseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π Home vs Away Records
Marseille at home Β· Olympiakos Piraeus away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Marseille (home)
Olympiakos Piraeus (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Marseille 2 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Olympiakos Piraeus 2 wins Β· avg 1.5 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec 2020 | Marseille | 2β1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | UEFA Champions League |
| 21 Oct 2020 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1β0 | Marseille | UEFA Champions League |
| 23 Nov 2011 | Marseille | 0β1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | UEFA Champions League |
| 13 Sep 2011 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 0β1 | Marseille | UEFA Champions League |
π Recent Form
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Paris Saint Germain | Home | 1β2 | L |
| 17/09 | BeΕiktaΕ | Away | 1β4 | L |
| 11/09 | Rennes | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 06/09 | Paris FC | Home | 2β3 | L |
| 30/08 | Monaco | Away | 0β2 | L |
Olympiakos Piraeus
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Levadiakos | Away | 1β0 | W |
| 16/09 | Jagiellonia | Home | 2β1 | W |
| 12/09 | OFI | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 08/09 | Volos NFC | Home | 3β2 | W |
| 05/09 | Volos NFC | Away | 1β1 | D |
π Season Comparison β UEFA Europa League
Marseille #32 Β· 0 pts β Olympiakos Piraeus #13 Β· 3 pts
Marseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Marseille
Olympiakos Piraeus
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Marseille
- β G. Kondogbia β Thigh Injury
- β T. Nnadi β Knee Injury
Olympiakos Piraeus
- β Clayton β Off the roster
- β A. El Kaabi β Broken Leg
- β K. Fortounis β Red Card
- β D. Garcia β Off the roster
- β B. Popovic β Off the roster
- β J. Roca β Shoulder Injury
- β L. Scipioni β Off the roster
- β Y. Yazici β Knee Injury
More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws