Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Rennes vs OFI

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Roazhon Park β€’ β˜€οΈ 17.4Β°C, 10 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 48.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 37.7% Β· Edge +12.5 pp
Best odds 2.65 Pinnacle 2.65Betfair 2.63Bet365 2.62
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 3.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.29 β†’ 1.27 β–Ό2% 91% 75.2% 1.27 1xBet 79.8% -4.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 69% 69.5% 1.07 Betano 93.3% -23.8 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.4% 1.85 William Hill 51.9% -2.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.1% 2.65 Pinnacle 36.6% +12.5 pp
Correct Score 1-0 66% 9.4% 8.50 Bet365 5.9% +3.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.1% 1.65 Betfair 57.7% -4.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Rennes 1.29 – 1.01 OFI Β· expected total 2.30

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Rennes host OFI at Roazhon Park on Thursday night in the second round of the Europa League league stage, and the stakes are simple: the French side sit 18th with 1 point from 1 game, while the Greeks arrive 9th on 3 points. A home win steadies Rennes' campaign; anything less hands OFI real momentum.

The model leans heavily on Rennes' recent attacking output, with 1.88 expected goals across their recent matches against OFI's 0.84, and a home scoring expectation of 1.2898 versus 1.0075 for the visitors. Form reads WLLDW for Rennes against LDWWW for OFI, so the away side is the hotter team on paper, but the venue and quality gap temper that. Both camps carry two absentees: Q. Merlin and A. Nordin for Rennes, N. Marinakis and D. Nikolaou for OFI.

The headline tip is a home win at 75.2 percent probability with 91 confidence, priced at 1.27, which offers little standalone value. The double chance 1X at 69.5 percent is the safer route. Where value may hide is in the goals markets: BTTS No carries 49.4 percent at 1.87, and Under 2.5 sits at 49.1 percent with a generous 2.65, both suggesting the bookmakers may be overpricing goals. The model's top correct score is 1-0 at 11.67, with 2-1 at 8.43 and 2-0 at 8.37. Corners point to Over 9.5 at 53.1 percent, with 10 expected.

The honest caveat: OFI's LDWWW form and superior table position mean they are not merely making up the numbers, and a low-scoring away performance could easily flip this into a draw, which is exactly why the Under and BTTS No angles deserve more respect than the short home price.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Rennes

Form (last 5)
WAuxerre (H) 4–1 Β· 11/10/2026LLaval (A) 0–1 Β· 02/10/2026LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.15
xG against (recent avg)1.56
Elo strength rating1351
Players out2

OFI

Form (last 5)
LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026DAsteras Tripolis (H) 2–2 Β· 20/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 2–0 Β· 17/09/2026WOlympiakos Piraeus (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026WNestos Chrisoupolis (H) 3–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.61
xG against (recent avg)0.74
Elo strength rating1393
Players out2
RennesOFI
WAuxerre (H) 4–1 Β· 11/10/2026LLaval (A) 0–1 Β· 02/10/2026LLyon (A) 0–4 Β· 19/09/2026DSturm Graz (A) 0–0 Β· 16/09/2026WMarseille (H) 1–0 Β· 11/09/2026
LAEK Athens FC (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026DAsteras Tripolis (H) 2–2 Β· 20/09/2026W1899 Hoffenheim (H) 2–0 Β· 17/09/2026WOlympiakos Piraeus (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026WNestos Chrisoupolis (H) 3–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.00
2.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
0
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.15
0.61
xG against (recent avg)
1.56
0.74
Elo strength rating
1351
1393
Players out
2
2

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Rennes

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

OFI

BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Rennes

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

OFI

3rd best attack (2.30 goals/game) Best defence (0.00 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (17%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Rennes at home Β· OFI away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Rennes (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

OFI (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Rennes (home)OFI (away)
W 1
Played
0
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.4%
2–1
6.8%
2–0
6.7%
3–1
2.9%
3–0
2.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Rennes

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Auxerre Home 4–1 W
02/10 Laval Away 0–1 L
19/09 Lyon Away 0–4 L
16/09 Sturm Graz Away 0–0 D
11/09 Marseille Home 1–0 W

OFI

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 AEK Athens FC Away 0–3 L
20/09 Asteras Tripolis Home 2–2 D
17/09 1899 Hoffenheim Home 2–0 W
12/09 Olympiakos Piraeus Away 1–0 W
09/09 Nestos Chrisoupolis Home 3–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Rennes #18 Β· 1 pts β€”  OFI #9 Β· 3 pts

Rennes

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–0L
D 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.15
xG against (avg)1.56
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

OFI

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.61
xG against (avg)0.74
Corners for (avg)3.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
RennesOFI
D 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
2.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
1
3
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
0
3
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.15
0.61
xG against (avg)
1.56
0.74
Corners for (avg)
5.80
3.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Rennes

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
scored conceded

OFI

0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Rennes

  • ❌ Q. Merlin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Nordin β€” Inactive

OFI

  • ❌ N. Marinakis β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ D. Nikolaou β€” Inactive

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws