Predictions β†’ World UEFA Europa League

Torreense vs Sunderland

Next match: Thu, 15 Oct 2026 β€’ 16:45 UTC+3 β€’ League Stage - 2 β€’ Estadio Algarve β€’ 🌀 24.5Β°C, 7 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 48.4% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 38.2% Β· Edge +11.0 pp
Best odds 2.62 Bet365 2.62Pinnacle 2.56Betfair 2.55
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 84% 57.8% 1.43 1xBet 71% -13.2 pp
Double Chance 12 70% 69.6% 1.19 1xBet 82.8% -13.2 pp
BTTS No 81% 48.3% 2.10 William Hill 45.5% +2.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 48.2% 2.62 Bet365 37.2% +11 pp
Correct Score 0-1 58% 4.7% 9.50 Bet365 5.4% -0.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55.1% 1.85 Betano 54.4% +0.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Torreense 1.59 – 0.85 Sunderland Β· expected total 2.44

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Torreense host Sunderland at Estadio Algarve on Thursday, 15 October 2026 in Matchday 2 of the UEFA Europa League league stage. Both sides sit on 3 points from their opening fixture, with Torreense 12th in the standings and Sunderland 15th, so this is an early opportunity for either to build momentum in the new format.

The model leans clearly toward the visitors. Sunderland are priced at 1.43 for the away win, carrying a 57.8 percent probability and a confidence reading of 84. Their recent form reads LLWLW, yet their recent expected goals figure of 2.72 suggests they are creating plenty. Torreense arrive with WDWLD form and a home expected goals value of 1.585, while Sunderland's attacking output is modelled at 0.8544. The double chance covering the draw and away side lands at 69.6 percent, a safer route if the 1.43 feels thin.

Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 is the call at 48.2 percent with odds of 2.62, and both teams to score is tipped No at 48.3 percent, priced 2.1. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 4.7 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 next in line. Corners offer a separate angle, with Over 9.5 expected at 11 corners and a 55.1 percent probability.

The obvious risk is Sunderland's lengthy injury list, which includes J. Angulo, A. Browne, H. Diarra, M. Ellborg, R. Mundle, J. Ta Bi and C. Talbi. That depth drain, plus Torreense's home advantage, is why the away win is not a formality despite the short price.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Torreense

Form (last 5)
WLillestrom (A) 2–1 Β· 17/09/2026DLeixoes (H) 0–0 Β· 11/09/2026WBenfica B (A) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026LVizela (H) 0–3 Β· 29/08/2026DLusitΓ’nia Lourosa (A) 2–2 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.00
xG against (recent avg)0.00
Elo strength rating1369
Players outβ€”

Sunderland

Form (last 5)
LBrighton (H) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026LManchester City (A) 3–5 Β· 20/09/2026WAZ Alkmaar (H) 1–0 Β· 16/09/2026LArsenal (H) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026WHull City (H) 1–0 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)0.00
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)2.30
xG against (recent avg)1.70
Elo strength rating1363
Players out7
TorreenseSunderland
WLillestrom (A) 2–1 Β· 17/09/2026DLeixoes (H) 0–0 Β· 11/09/2026WBenfica B (A) 2–0 Β· 05/09/2026LVizela (H) 0–3 Β· 29/08/2026DLusitΓ’nia Lourosa (A) 2–2 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
2.00
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.00
2.30
xG against (recent avg)
0.00
1.70
Elo strength rating
1369
1363
Players out
β€”
7

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Torreense

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Sunderland

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” UEFA Europa League

Torreense

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Sunderland

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rank among 36 UEFA Europa League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Torreense at home Β· Sunderland away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Torreense (home)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Sunderland (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Torreense (home)Sunderland (away)
Played
0
0
Goals scored (avg)
0.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
4.7%
1–2
3.8%
0–2
2.4%
1–3
1.1%
2–3
0.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Torreense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/09 Lillestrom Away 2–1 W
11/09 Leixoes Home 0–0 D
05/09 Benfica B Away 2–0 W
29/08 Vizela Home 0–3 L
22/08 LusitΓ’nia Lourosa Away 2–2 D

Sunderland

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Brighton Home 0–2 L
20/09 Manchester City Away 3–5 L
16/09 AZ Alkmaar Home 1–0 W
12/09 Arsenal Home 0–2 L
08/09 Hull City Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” UEFA Europa League

Torreense #12 Β· 3 pts β€”  Sunderland #15 Β· 3 pts

Torreense

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards4
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.00
xG against (avg)0.00
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Sunderland

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–0L
W 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (avg)2.30
xG against (avg)1.70
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
TorreenseSunderland
W 1
W 1
Played
1
1
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
0
0
Yellow cards
4
3
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
0.00
2.30
xG against (avg)
0.00
1.70
Corners for (avg)
5.10
6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Torreense

0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Sunderland

0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Torreense

No reported absences.

Sunderland

  • ❌ J. Angulo β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ A. Browne β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ H. Diarra β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ M. Ellborg β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ R. Mundle β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Ta Bi β€” Off the roster
  • ❌ C. Talbi β€” Off the roster

More: UEFA Europa League predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws