Predictions β†’ Argentina Liga Profesional

Newells Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 20:00 UTC+3 β€’ Clausura - 13 β€’ Estadio Marcelo Bielsa β€’ 🌀 18.6Β°C, 10 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 83% 55.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 76% 78.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 80% 48.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 70% 11.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Newells Old Boys 1.53 – 0.79 Central Cordoba de Santiago Β· expected total 2.32

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Newells Old Boys host Central Cordoba de Santiago at the Estadio Marcelo Bielsa in round 13 of the Clausura, with both sides stuck in mid-table congestion β€” 14th against 13th, 15 points against 16, both having played 16. This is a fixture where three points matter more for pride and separation than for any title push, and the market prices it accordingly.

The model leans clearly toward the hosts. Newells' recent form reads DWDDD, unbeaten but draw-heavy, while Central Cordoba arrive on DDDLL and without a win in five. The expected goals split is telling: 1.5302 for Newells against 0.7861 for the visitors, though recent xG narrows it slightly at 1.29 versus 1.4. No injuries are listed on either side, so both coaches have full squads. Head-to-head is genuinely mixed β€” Newells won 3-1 in April 2026 and 1-0 in January 2024, but Central Cordoba took the February 2025 meeting 2-0 and won 2-3 at this venue in November 2024.

The headline tip is a home win at 55.4 percent with confidence 83, and the double chance 1X at 78.9 percent is the safer anchor. Under 2.5 sits at 51.6 percent, and both teams to score at 48.2 percent β€” essentially a coin flip, so avoid overcommitting there. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.4 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners offer an interesting angle: an expected 9.8 and 52.6 percent for over 9.5.

The honest caveat is Newells' draw habit β€” four draws in five β€” and Central Cordoba's habit of upsetting this opponent. If the odds on the home win drift above fair value, take it; otherwise the 1X is the disciplined play.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Newells Old Boys

Form (last 5)
DLanus (H) 0–0 Β· 03/10/2026WPlatense (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026DRosario Central (A) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026DEstudiantes L.P. (A) 0–0 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.85
xG against (recent avg)0.56
Elo strength rating1343

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Form (last 5)
DEstudiantes L.P. (H) 2–2 Β· 10/10/2026DDeportivo Riestra (A) 1–1 Β· 05/10/2026DDefensa Y Justicia (H) 2–2 Β· 18/09/2026LBoca Juniors (A) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026LIndependiente (H) 0–1 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.44
xG against (recent avg)0.63
Elo strength rating1575
Newells Old BoysCentral Cordoba de Santiago
DLanus (H) 0–0 Β· 03/10/2026WPlatense (A) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026DVelez Sarsfield (H) 1–1 Β· 11/09/2026DRosario Central (A) 1–1 Β· 06/09/2026DEstudiantes L.P. (A) 0–0 Β· 31/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
0.85
0.44
xG against (recent avg)
0.56
0.63
Elo strength rating
1343
1575

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Newells Old Boys

Unbeaten 7
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Unbeaten 3 Winless 8
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Newells Old Boys at home Β· Central Cordoba de Santiago away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Newells Old Boys (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–7D–3L
W 4
D 7
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score4

Central Cordoba de Santiago (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–5D–8L
W 1
D 5
L 8
Played14
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score9
Newells Old Boys (home)Central Cordoba de Santiago (away)
W 4
D 7
L 3
W 1
D 5
L 8
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.40
Clean sheets
5
3
Failed to score
4
9

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.4%
2–0
9.5%
2–1
7.4%
3–0
4.8%
3–1
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Newells Old Boys 5 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 9

3
1
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Apr 2026 Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Newells Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina
09 Aug 2025 Newells Old Boys 1–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina
07 Feb 2025 Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Newells Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina
20 Nov 2024 Newells Old Boys 2–3 Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina
26 Jan 2024 Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Newells Old Boys Copa de la Liga Profesional
21 Aug 2023 Newells Old Boys 2–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago Copa de la Liga Profesional
08 Jul 2023 Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Newells Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina
11 Oct 2022 Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–3 Newells Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina
24 Nov 2021 Newells Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Newells Old Boys

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Lanus Home 0–0 D
20/09 Platense Away 1–0 W
11/09 Velez Sarsfield Home 1–1 D
06/09 Rosario Central Away 1–1 D
31/08 Estudiantes L.P. Away 0–0 D

Central Cordoba de Santiago

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Estudiantes L.P. Home 2–2 D
05/10 Deportivo Riestra Away 1–1 D
18/09 Defensa Y Justicia Home 2–2 D
12/09 Boca Juniors Away 1–3 L
06/09 Independiente Home 0–1 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Liga Profesional

Newells Old Boys #14 Β· 15 pts β€”  Central Cordoba de Santiago #13 Β· 16 pts

Newells Old Boys

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–7L
W 3
D 6
L 7
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets7
Failed to score9
Yellow cards60
Red cards3
xG for (avg)0.85
xG against (avg)0.56
Corners for (avg)2.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–4D–8L
W 4
D 4
L 8
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets8
Failed to score14
Yellow cards69
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.44
xG against (avg)0.63
Corners for (avg)7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
Newells Old BoysCentral Cordoba de Santiago
W 3
D 6
L 7
W 4
D 4
L 8
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.30
Clean sheets
7
8
Failed to score
9
14
Yellow cards
60
69
Red cards
3
1
xG for (avg)
0.85
0.44
xG against (avg)
0.56
0.63
Corners for (avg)
2.90
7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Newells Old Boys

2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
10
31-45
2
8
46-60
4
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
14
scored conceded

Central Cordoba de Santiago

8
0-15
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws