Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys
Next match: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 • 21:30 UTC+3 • Clausura - 12 • Víctor Legrotaglie • ⛅ 15.5°C, 6 km/h partly cloudy
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.28 → 2.38 ▲4% | 75% | 33.2% | 2.38 | Pinnacle | 41.8% | -8.6 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 66% | 65.1% | 1.36 | Betano | 72.7% | -7.6 pp |
| BTTS | No | 84% | 55.2% | 1.80 | William Hill | 53.2% | +2 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 87% | 61.2% | 1.60 | Pinnacle | 61% | +0.2 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 71% | 11.9% | 6.50 | William Hill | 7.7% | +4.2 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 74% | 28.7% | 3.13 | BetVictor | 30.9% | -2.2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.4 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 63% | 54.6% | 1.67 | Bet365 | 57.3% | -2.7 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Gimnasia M. 0.76 – 0.82 Newells Old Boys · expected total 1.58
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair. Recent form reads LDLDW for the hosts and DWDDD for the visitors, and the expected goals tell the same story: 0.764 for Gimnasia against 0.815 for Newells, with recent xG figures of 1.22 and 1.29 suggesting neither attack is firing. No injuries are listed for either side, so both managers have full squads to choose from. The head-to-head offers little comfort to the hosts, with Newells winning the only recent meeting 1-0.
The headline tip is a home win at 33.2 percent probability, priced at 2.38, with the draw at 28.7 percent and double chance 1X at 65.1 percent. Under 2.5 goals is the strongest angle at 61.2 percent and odds of 1.6, while BTTS No sits at 55.2 percent at 1.8. The model's favoured scoreline is 1-0 at 11.9 percent, with 1-0 leading the top scores at 14.47. Corners lean under 9.5 at 54.6 percent, with an expected 8.4.
The honest caveat: a 33.2 percent home probability is hardly dominant, and with both attacks averaging under a goal in the model, the draw at 28.7 percent is a live threat that could sink any single-match bet.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old Boys
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old Boys
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Gimnasia M. at home · Newells Old Boys away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Gimnasia M. (home)
Newells Old Boys (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Gimnasia M. 0 wins · 0 draws · Newells Old Boys 1 win · avg 1 goals · BTTS in 0 of 1
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Newells Old Boys | 1–0 | Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
📈 Recent Form
Gimnasia M.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Estudiantes L.P. | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Riestra | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 11/09 | Defensa Y Justicia | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 05/09 | Boca Juniors | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 30/08 | Independiente | Away | 3–0 | W |
Newells Old Boys
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Lanus | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 20/09 | Platense | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Velez Sarsfield | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 06/09 | Rosario Central | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 31/08 | Estudiantes L.P. | Away | 0–0 | D |
📊 Season Comparison — Liga Profesional
Gimnasia M. #11 · 19 pts — Newells Old Boys #14 · 15 pts
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old Boys
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Gimnasia M.
Newells Old Boys
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Liga Profesional predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Juan Cruz Robledo