Predictions β†’ Argentina Liga Profesional

Platense vs Lanus

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 20:30 UTC+3 β€’ Clausura - 13 β€’ β˜€οΈ 14.5Β°C, 12 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.45 β†’ 3.05 β–²24% 75% 32.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 68% 68.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 83% 52.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 56.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 74% 28.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.1 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Platense 0.92 – 1.08 Lanus Β· expected total 2.00

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Platense host Lanus in Round 13 of the Clausura, with the visitors chasing the top group on 24 points from 16 games while the home side sit 12th on 16. The standings gap frames this as a test of Lanus's consistency on the road against a Platense team that has been hard to beat but harder to trust.

The model leans on recent form: Lanus arrive with a WDWWW run, Platense with DDWLW. Expected goals are tight, with the home side at 0.9197 and the away side at 1.0826, though recent shot quality tells a different story β€” 0.78 for Platense against just 0.42 for Lanus. No injuries are listed for either squad. The head-to-head is the real warning sign: the last five meetings produced 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0 and 3-0, four of them involving Lanus as host, and three goalless draws in that stretch.

That shapes the tips. The away win is the headline call at 32.5 percent with 75 percent confidence, but the double chance X2 at 68.2 percent is the safer expression of the same read. Under 2.5 goals lands at 56.1 percent, and BTTS No at 52.9 percent, both consistent with the low-scoring history. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 10.8 percent, with 0-2 at 7.91 and 1-2 at 7.28. Corners point Under 9.5 at 55.4 percent, with an expected 8.1.

The value question is whether bookmakers price Lanus's win above the model's 32.5 percent β€” if so, the away win is the play; if not, X2 is the disciplined route. The honest caveat: a 32.5 percent win probability means the single result loses roughly two times in three, and the draw, at 28.8 percent with 74 percent confidence, is a live threat given this fixture's history.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Platense

Form (last 5)
DArgentinos JRS (H) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026DVelez Sarsfield (A) 2–2 Β· 05/10/2026WEstudiantes L.P. (H) 1–0 Β· 02/10/2026LNewells Old Boys (H) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026WFluminense (H) 2–1 Β· 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.15
xG against (recent avg)0.21
Elo strength rating1341

Lanus

Form (last 5)
WVelez Sarsfield (H) 2–0 Β· 12/10/2026DNewells Old Boys (A) 0–0 Β· 03/10/2026WEstudiantes L.P. (H) 2–1 Β· 22/09/2026WDeportivo Riestra (A) 3–0 Β· 14/09/2026WDefensa Y Justicia (H) 1–0 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.36
xG against (recent avg)1.07
Elo strength rating1419
PlatenseLanus
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.15
0.36
xG against (recent avg)
0.21
1.07
Elo strength rating
1341
1419

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Platense

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Lanus

Unbeaten 5
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Liga Profesional

Platense

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Lanus

3rd best clean sheets (13)

Rank among 30 Liga Profesional teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Platense at home Β· Lanus away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Platense (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–6D–6L
W 2
D 6
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score7

Lanus (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–6L
W 5
D 3
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets5
Failed to score5
Platense (home)Lanus (away)
W 2
D 6
L 6
W 5
D 3
L 6
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
0.60
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.10
Clean sheets
2
5
Failed to score
7
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
10.8%
0–2
6.4%
1–2
5.9%
0–3
2.3%
1–3
2.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lanus 3 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Platense 1 win Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 9

3
5
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Apr 2026 Lanus 0–0 Platense Liga Profesional Argentina
20 Sep 2025 Lanus 2–1 Platense Liga Profesional Argentina
09 Mar 2025 Platense 0–0 Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina
11 Nov 2024 Lanus 0–0 Platense Liga Profesional Argentina
11 Feb 2024 Lanus 3–0 Platense Copa de la Liga Profesional
14 Sep 2023 Platense 2–1 Lanus Copa de la Liga Profesional
30 Jun 2023 Platense 0–1 Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina
25 Oct 2022 Platense 1–1 Lanus Liga Profesional Argentina
25 Nov 2021 Lanus 3–3 Platense Liga Profesional Argentina

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Platense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Argentinos JRS Home 1–1 D
05/10 Velez Sarsfield Away 2–2 D
02/10 Estudiantes L.P. Home 1–0 W
20/09 Newells Old Boys Home 0–1 L
15/09 Fluminense Home 2–1 W

Lanus

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Velez Sarsfield Home 2–0 W
03/10 Newells Old Boys Away 0–0 D
22/09 Estudiantes L.P. Home 2–1 W
14/09 Deportivo Riestra Away 3–0 W
06/09 Defensa Y Justicia Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Liga Profesional

Platense #12 Β· 16 pts β€”  Lanus #6 Β· 24 pts

Platense

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–7D–6L
W 3
D 7
L 6
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets7
Failed to score13
Yellow cards59
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.15
xG against (avg)0.21
Corners for (avg)6.50
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Lanus

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–6D–4L
W 6
D 6
L 4
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets13
Failed to score10
Yellow cards70
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.36
xG against (avg)1.07
Corners for (avg)3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1
PlatenseLanus
W 3
D 7
L 6
W 6
D 6
L 4
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
0.90
Clean sheets
7
13
Failed to score
13
10
Yellow cards
59
70
Red cards
2
0
xG for (avg)
0.15
0.36
xG against (avg)
0.21
1.07
Corners for (avg)
6.50
3.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
2/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Platense

4
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
9
61-75
4
8
76-90
7
scored conceded

Lanus

1
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
6
46-60
7
5
61-75
10
10
76-90
6
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Liga Profesional predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws