Mirassol vs Internacional

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 31 • José Maria de Campos Maia • 🌤 22.1°C, 9 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Double Chance — 1X

Model 78.1% · Market best price ≈ 71.9% · Edge +5.7 pp

Best odds 1.39 Betano 1.39William Hill 1.36Bet365 1.36

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¼ Kelly sizing: 5.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home 2.25 → 2.32 ▲3%	79%	42.9%	2.32	Betano	43%	-0.1 pp
Double Chance	1X	74%	75.7%	1.39	Betano	70%	+5.7 pp
BTTS	Yes	81%	49.4%	1.70	William Hill	54.9%	-5.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	82%	50.4%	1.93	Betano	50.1%	+0.3 pp
Correct Score	1-0	68%	10.3%	8.50	Bet365	5.8%	+4.5 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.)	Over 9.5	63%	54%	1.82	Bet365	52.1%	+1.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Mirassol 1.48 – 0.89 Internacional · expected total 2.37

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Mirassol host Internacional on Saturday in a Serie A round 31 fixture that smells like a relegation six-pointer. The two clubs are separated by a single point and sit uncomfortably close to the drop zone: Mirassol are 15th on 33 points from 30 games, Internacional 17th on 32. With so little between them, this is the kind of night where home advantage and fine margins decide everything.

The model leans toward the hosts. Mirassol's recent form reads LDWWD, Internacional's DWLWL, and the expected goals split is telling: the home side is projected at 1.4847 against just 0.8862 for the visitors, with recent xG at 1.22 versus 0.97. Both squads are badly depleted, with long injury lists on either side, so depth and rotation could matter as much as tactics. History offers a nudge too: Mirassol won the last meeting 2-1 in April 2026 and beat Internacional 3-1 at this venue in October 2025.

The headline tip is a home win at 42.9 percent, priced at 2.32, with confidence at 79. If you want a safety net, the double chance 1X lands at 75.7 percent. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 carries 50.4 percent at 1.93, while both teams to score sits at 49.4 percent and 1.7. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12.65, with 2-0 at 10.3. Corners offer a side angle, with Over 9.5 at 54 percent and an expected 10.4.

The honest caveat: 42.9 percent is not dominance, and with both teams desperate and heavily rotated, a low-quality draw is a real risk. Treat the home win as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Mirassol

Form (last 5)

LBahia (A) 0–1 · 11/10/2026 DRB Bragantino (A) 1–1 · 07/10/2026WUberlandia (A) 4–0 · 27/09/2026WBotafogo (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026 DVitoria (H) 2–2 · 13/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.50

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.44

xG against (recent avg)0.58

Elo strength rating1636

Players out19

Internacional

Form (last 5)

DGremio (A) 1–1 · 11/10/2026 WCorinthians (H) 2–1 · 07/10/2026 LSao Paulo (A) 0–1 · 20/09/2026 WChapecoense-sc (A) 2–1 · 12/09/2026 LSantos (H) 2–3 · 06/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.53

xG against (recent avg)0.72

Elo strength rating1380

Players out22

MirassolInternacional

LBahia (A) 0–1 · 11/10/2026 DRB Bragantino (A) 1–1 · 07/10/2026WUberlandia (A) 4–0 · 27/09/2026WBotafogo (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026 DVitoria (H) 2–2 · 13/09/2026

DGremio (A) 1–1 · 11/10/2026 WCorinthians (H) 2–1 · 07/10/2026 LSao Paulo (A) 0–1 · 20/09/2026 WChapecoense-sc (A) 2–1 · 12/09/2026 LSantos (H) 2–3 · 06/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.50

1.30

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.44

0.53

xG against (recent avg)

0.58

0.72

Elo strength rating

1636

1380

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Mirassol

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Internacional

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Mirassol

2nd worst clean sheets (2)

Internacional

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Mirassol at home · Internacional away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Mirassol (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–4L

W 6

D 5

L 4

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets2

Failed to score2

Internacional (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–6L

W 3

D 6

L 6

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets2

Failed to score5

Mirassol (home)Internacional (away)

W 6

D 5

L 4

W 3

D 6

L 6

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

10.3%

2–0

8.4%

2–1

7.4%

3–0

4.2%

3–1

3.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Internacional 0 wins · 1 draw · Mirassol 2 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 3 of 3

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
19 Apr 2026	Internacional	1–2	Mirassol	Serie A
15 Oct 2025	Mirassol	3–1	Internacional	Serie A
18 May 2025	Internacional	1–1	Mirassol	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Mirassol

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Bahia	Away	0–1	L
07/10	RB Bragantino	Away	1–1	D
27/09	Uberlandia	Away	4–0	W
19/09	Botafogo	Home	2–0	W
13/09	Vitoria	Home	2–2	D

Internacional

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Gremio	Away	1–1	D
07/10	Corinthians	Home	2–1	W
20/09	Sao Paulo	Away	0–1	L
12/09	Chapecoense-sc	Away	2–1	W
06/09	Santos	Home	2–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Mirassol #15 · 33 pts — Internacional #17 · 32 pts

Mirassol

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–9D–13L

W 8

D 9

L 13

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets2

Failed to score8

Yellow cards76

Red cards4

xG for (avg)0.44

xG against (avg)0.58

Corners for (avg)6.50

Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Internacional

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–11D–12L

W 7

D 11

L 12

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets6

Failed to score9

Yellow cards76

Red cards3

xG for (avg)0.53

xG against (avg)0.72

Corners for (avg)5.00

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

MirassolInternacional

W 8

D 9

L 13

W 7

D 11

L 12

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.50

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.44

0.53

xG against (avg)

0.58

0.72

Corners for (avg)

6.50

5.00

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/1

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Mirassol

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Internacional

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Mirassol

❌ Andre Luis — Inactive
❌ Edson Carioca — Muscle Injury
❌ Felipe Jonatan — Inactive
❌ Daniel Borges — Inactive
❌ Eduardo — Injury
❌ Igor Carius — Injury
❌ Yuri Lara — Red Card
❌ Jose Aldo — Yellow Cards
❌ Reinaldo — Yellow Cards
❌ Negueba — Yellow Cards
❌ Neto Moura — Yellow Cards
❌ Igor Formiga — Muscle Injury
❌ Nathan Fogaca — Inactive
❌ Alex Muralha — Calf Injury
❌ Alesson — Inactive
❌ Walter — Yellow Cards
❌ Denilson — Yellow Cards
❌ Wallisson — Red Card
❌ Joao Victor — Yellow Cards
❓ Renato Marques (doubtful) — Injury

Internacional

❌ Richard — Inactive
❌ Thiago Maia — Inactive
❌ A. Rodriguez — Injury
❌ Bruno Tabata — Inactive
❌ R. Villagra — Injury
❌ Kayky — Inactive
❌ Paulinho Paula — Yellow Cards
❌ S. Rochet — International duty
❌ F. Torres — Loan agreement
❌ Vitinho — Yellow Cards
❌ A. Bernabei — Yellow Cards
❌ G. Mercado — Yellow Cards
❌ Ronaldo — Muscle Injury
❌ J. Carbonero — Yellow Cards
❌ Joao Victor — Muscle Injury
❌ Matheus Bahia — Yellow Cards
❌ Allex — Inactive
❌ Bruno Gomes — Yellow Cards
❌ B. Aguirre — Yellow Cards
❌ Calebe — Ankle Injury
❌ G. Maripan — Inactive
❌ A. Sanabria — Inactive
❓ B. Arhin (doubtful) — Injury
❓ Victor Gabriel (doubtful) — Injury

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws