Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Deportivo Cali vs Junior

Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 • 01:10 UTC+3 • Clausura - 15 • Estadio Deportivo Cali • 🌦 21.3°C, 3 km/h, 0.4mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.1 → 1.95 ▼7% 82% 52.2% 1.95 Betfair 51.1% +1.1 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 75% 1.25 Betfair 78% -3 pp
BTTS Yes 83% 52.3% 1.80 Bet365 52% +0.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 51.5% 1.95 Bet365 49% +2.5 pp
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.8% 8.75 Betano 5.7% +2.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.8 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53.5% 1.67 Betano 56.2% -2.7 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.77 – 1.08 Junior · expected total 2.86

🧠 Match Preview

Deportivo Cali host Junior at Estadio Deportivo Cali in round 15 of the Clausura, and the stakes are lopsided on paper: the visitors sit 2nd on 35 points from 19 games, while Cali are 9th on 27. Form, though, tells the opposite story. Cali arrive on a DWWWW run, Junior on DLLWW, and the model leans into that momentum rather than the table.

The goal expectation backs the hosts: 1.7734 for Cali against 1.0818 for Junior, with recent xG at 1.37 and 1.24 respectively. No injuries are listed for either side, so both coaches have full hands to play. Head-to-head is mixed and low-scoring in patches — 1-2, 0-2, 0-0, 3-0, 0-0 across the last five — which is worth remembering before backing goals blindly.

The headline tip is a home win at 52.2% probability, priced at 1.95, with confidence marked at 82. The double chance 1X sits at 75%, a safer route if you want to absorb Junior's quality. Both teams to score is called Yes at 52.3% (odds 1.8), and Over 2.5 lands at 51.5% (odds 1.95) — both marginal edges rather than convictions. The correct-score model favours 2-1 at 7.8%, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53.5%, with an expected 8.8.

The honest caveat: Junior are 2nd for a reason, and a 52.2% home probability is not dominance — it is a lean. Treat the 1X as the value anchor and the outright win as the aggressive play.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Deportivo Cali

Form (last 5)
DDeportivo Pereira (A) 0–0 · 10/10/2026WAlianza Valledupar (H) 3–1 · 03/10/2026WÁguilas Doradas (H) 2–0 · 28/09/2026WSanta Fe (A) 1–0 · 23/09/2026WCucuta (H) 3–0 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.47
xG against (recent avg)0.11
Elo strength rating1496

Junior

Form (last 5)
DInternacional de Bogota (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026LBucaramanga (A) 1–3 · 04/10/2026LAtletico Nacional (A) 1–3 · 01/10/2026WIndependiente Medellin (H) 2–0 · 27/09/2026WFortaleza FC (A) 4–1 · 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.24
xG against (recent avg)1.40
Elo strength rating1630
Deportivo CaliJunior
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
5
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.47
1.24
xG against (recent avg)
0.11
1.40
Elo strength rating
1496
1630

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Deportivo Cali

Unbeaten 7
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Junior

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Deportivo Cali

Best defence (0.80 conceded/game) 2nd best clean sheets (13)

Junior

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Deportivo Cali at home · Junior away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Deportivo Cali (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–6D–1L
W 9
D 6
L 1
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets8
Failed to score2

Junior (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–2D–9L
W 7
D 2
L 9
Played18
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Deportivo Cali (home)Junior (away)
W 9
D 6
L 1
W 7
D 2
L 9
Played
16
18
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.40
Clean sheets
8
4
Failed to score
2
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.8%
1–0
7.3%
2–0
7.2%
3–1
4.6%
3–0
4.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Deportivo Cali 2 wins · 2 draws · Junior 6 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Apr 2026 Junior 1–2 Deportivo Cali Primera A
13 Jul 2025 Deportivo Cali 0–2 Junior Primera A
26 Jan 2025 Junior 0–0 Deportivo Cali Primera A
15 Nov 2024 Junior 3–0 Deportivo Cali Primera A
28 Apr 2024 Deportivo Cali 0–0 Junior Primera A
03 Dec 2023 Deportivo Cali 0–2 Junior Primera A
19 Nov 2023 Junior 3–0 Deportivo Cali Primera A
07 Oct 2023 Junior 3–2 Deportivo Cali Primera A
28 Apr 2023 Deportivo Cali 3–2 Junior Primera A
02 Oct 2022 Junior 1–0 Deportivo Cali Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Deportivo Cali

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Deportivo Pereira Away 0–0 D
03/10 Alianza Valledupar Home 3–1 W
28/09 Águilas Doradas Home 2–0 W
23/09 Santa Fe Away 1–0 W
19/09 Cucuta Home 3–0 W

Junior

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Internacional de Bogota Home 2–2 D
04/10 Bucaramanga Away 1–3 L
01/10 Atletico Nacional Away 1–3 L
27/09 Independiente Medellin Home 2–0 W
20/09 Fortaleza FC Away 4–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Deportivo Cali #9 · 27 pts —  Junior #2 · 35 pts

Deportivo Cali

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–6D–6L
W 7
D 6
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets13
Failed to score8
Yellow cards94
Red cards7
xG for (avg)0.47
xG against (avg)0.11
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/2

Junior

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–2D–6L
W 11
D 2
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets10
Failed to score6
Yellow cards110
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.24
xG against (avg)1.40
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)11/2
Deportivo CaliJunior
W 7
D 6
L 6
W 11
D 2
L 6
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.40
Clean sheets
13
10
Failed to score
8
6
Yellow cards
94
110
Red cards
7
4
xG for (avg)
0.47
1.24
xG against (avg)
0.11
1.40
Corners for (avg)
3.20
4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/2
11/2

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Deportivo Cali

1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
8
5
46-60
8
8
61-75
10
4
76-90
8
scored conceded

Junior

7
0-15
8
7
16-30
8
11
31-45
12
5
46-60
6
8
61-75
8
12
76-90
14
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws