Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Junior vs Deportivo Pereira

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 • 21:30 UTC+3 • Clausura - 4 • Estadio Romelio Martinez • 🌦 27.9°C, 12 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 92% 82.2% 1.25 William Hill 79.3% +2.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 80% 83.4% 1.06 Betano 93.4% -10 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.5% 2.10 Betfair 46.2% +3.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 50.1% 1.55 Betano 61.3% -11.2 pp
Correct Score 2-0 68% 10% 6.70 Betano 7.4% +2.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.2 exp.) Under 9.5 61% 52.6% 1.88 Bet365 50.5% +2.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Junior 1.90 – 0.78 Deportivo Pereira · expected total 2.69

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Junior host Deportivo Pereira at Estadio Romelio Martinez in round four of the Clausura, and the table tells the story before a ball is kicked. Junior sit second on 35 points from 19 games, while Pereira are rooted to the bottom on 10 points from the same number of matches. The model is emphatic: a home win carries an 82.2 percent probability at odds of 1.25, with double chance 1X at 83.4 percent for anyone wanting a safety net.

The underlying numbers back that up. Junior's expected goals figure stands at 1.9048 against Pereira's 0.7813, and recent form points the same way, with the hosts at 1.24 expected goals and the visitors at 0.91. Junior's last five read DLLWW, Pereira's DLLDD, and there are no injuries listed on either side. The head-to-head is tighter than the standings suggest, though, with Junior winning three of the last five, including a 3-2 thriller in Pereira and a 3-2 home success in October 2025.

For goals, Over 2.5 is priced at 1.55 with a 50.1 percent model probability, while both teams to score sits at 49.5 percent and odds of 2.1. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12.41 percent, part of a top-score cluster that also includes 1-0 at 12.01 and 2-1 at 9.69. Corners lean under 9.5 at 52.6 percent, with an expected 9.2.

The honest caveat: Pereira have beaten Junior once in the last five meetings and drew the other, so the 1.25 price offers little margin for error if the hosts are flat.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Junior

Form (last 5)
DInternacional de Bogota (H) 2–2 · 10/10/2026LBucaramanga (A) 1–3 · 04/10/2026LAtletico Nacional (A) 1–3 · 01/10/2026WIndependiente Medellin (H) 2–0 · 27/09/2026WFortaleza FC (A) 4–1 · 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.24
xG against (recent avg)1.40
Elo strength rating1643

Deportivo Pereira

Form (last 5)
DDeportivo Cali (H) 0–0 · 10/10/2026LCucuta (A) 0–4 · 04/10/2026LSanta Fe (H) 1–2 · 29/09/2026DInternacional de Bogota (H) 0–0 · 26/09/2026DÁguilas Doradas (A) 2–2 · 18/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.60
xG against (recent avg)0.61
Elo strength rating1294
JuniorDeportivo Pereira
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.24
0.60
xG against (recent avg)
1.40
0.61
Elo strength rating
1643
1294

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Junior

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Deportivo Pereira

Winless 9
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Junior

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game)

Deportivo Pereira

Worst attack (0.70 goals/game)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Junior at home · Deportivo Pereira away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Junior (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–6D–4L
W 9
D 6
L 4
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3

Deportivo Pereira (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–6D–9L
W 1
D 6
L 9
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score10
Junior (home)Deportivo Pereira (away)
W 9
D 6
L 4
W 1
D 6
L 9
Played
19
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.70
Clean sheets
6
2
Failed to score
3
10

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
10%
1–0
9.7%
2–1
7.8%
3–0
6.3%
3–1
5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Deportivo Pereira 3 wins · 3 draws · Junior 4 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

3
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Feb 2026 Deportivo Pereira 2–3 Junior Primera A
18 Oct 2025 Junior 3–2 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
27 Apr 2025 Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Junior Primera A
20 Oct 2024 Junior 3–1 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
23 May 2024 Deportivo Pereira 0–0 Junior Primera A
19 May 2024 Junior 2–3 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
26 Feb 2024 Deportivo Pereira 3–3 Junior Primera A
25 Oct 2023 Deportivo Pereira 0–2 Junior Primera A
14 May 2023 Junior 0–0 Deportivo Pereira Primera A
01 Dec 2022 Junior 0–2 Deportivo Pereira Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Junior

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Internacional de Bogota Home 2–2 D
04/10 Bucaramanga Away 1–3 L
01/10 Atletico Nacional Away 1–3 L
27/09 Independiente Medellin Home 2–0 W
20/09 Fortaleza FC Away 4–1 W

Deportivo Pereira

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Deportivo Cali Home 0–0 D
04/10 Cucuta Away 0–4 L
29/09 Santa Fe Home 1–2 L
26/09 Internacional de Bogota Home 0–0 D
18/09 Águilas Doradas Away 2–2 D

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Junior #2 · 35 pts —  Deportivo Pereira #20 · 10 pts

Junior

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–2D–6L
W 11
D 2
L 6
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets10
Failed to score6
Yellow cards110
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.24
xG against (avg)1.40
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)11/2

Deportivo Pereira

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–7D–11L
W 1
D 7
L 11
Played19
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets7
Failed to score17
Yellow cards81
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.60
xG against (avg)0.61
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)3/1
JuniorDeportivo Pereira
W 11
D 2
L 6
W 1
D 7
L 11
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.60
Clean sheets
10
7
Failed to score
6
17
Yellow cards
110
81
Red cards
4
8
xG for (avg)
1.24
0.60
xG against (avg)
1.40
0.61
Corners for (avg)
4.40
4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
11/2
3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Junior

7
0-15
8
7
16-30
8
11
31-45
12
5
46-60
6
8
61-75
8
12
76-90
14
scored conceded

Deportivo Pereira

6
0-15
3
6
16-30
1
8
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
8
61-75
6
11
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: Steven Camargo