Predictions → Colombia Primera A

Santa Fe vs Jaguares

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 • 23:30 UTC+3 • Clausura - 7 • Estadio El Campin • ☁️ 14.6°C, 3 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Match Winner (1X2) — Home
Model 75.6% · Market best price ≈ 72.5% · Edge +6.7 pp
Best odds 1.38 Bet365 1.38Betano 1.37William Hill 1.36
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 5.0% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.44 → 1.38 ▼4% 92% 79.4% 1.38 Bet365 72.7% +6.7 pp
Double Chance 1X 83% 87.7% 1.08 BetVictor 91.3% -3.6 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.4% 1.75 William Hill 54.5% -3.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.5% 2.05 Bet365 46.5% +1 pp
Correct Score 2-0 70% 11.3% 6.70 Betano 7.4% +3.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.6 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.2% 2.25 Betano 41.6% +10.6 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Santa Fe 2.12 – 0.67 Jaguares · expected total 2.79

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Santa Fe host Jaguares at Estadio El Campin in round seven of the Clausura, and the stakes are lopsided: the hosts sit 7th on 29 points from 19 games, while the visitors are 16th with just 18 from the same number. Form points the same way — Santa Fe arrive on WWDLW, Jaguares on a grim LLLDD.

The model sees a clear home edge. Expected goals read 2.1185 for Santa Fe against 0.6742 for Jaguares, though recent xG is tighter at 1.48 and 1.21, a reminder that the raw split flatters the hosts. No injuries are listed on either side, so both should field their preferred lineups. The head-to-head is mixed: Jaguares won the last meeting 3-1 in February, but Santa Fe have taken three of the previous five, including a 3-0 rout in November 2024.

The headline tip is a home win at 79.4 percent, priced at 1.38 — short, and the double chance 1X at 87.7 percent offers little extra. Better value may hide elsewhere. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.4 percent and odds of 1.75, while Under 2.5 goals carries 47.5 percent at 2.05, a market where the bookmaker appears to be paying for the risk. The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 11.3 percent, with 1-0 (12.18) and 3-0 (9.77) close behind in the model's top scores. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 52.2 percent with an expected 9.6.

The honest caveat: that 79.4 percent home probability leans heavily on Jaguares' collapse rather than Santa Fe's own recent xG of 1.48, and the visitors did win this fixture 3-1 earlier in the year. At 1.38, the straight home win leaves almost no margin for error.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Santa Fe

Form (last 5)
WIndependiente Medellin (A) 1–0 · 06/10/2026WDeportivo Pereira (A) 2–1 · 29/09/2026DUnion Magdalena (A) 1–1 · 25/09/2026LDeportivo Cali (H) 0–1 · 23/09/2026WAlianza Valledupar (A) 4–1 · 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.48
xG against (recent avg)0.70
Elo strength rating1621

Jaguares

Form (last 5)
LÁguilas Doradas (A) 0–2 · 03/10/2026LAlianza Valledupar (H) 1–2 · 27/09/2026LIndependiente Medellin (A) 1–2 · 22/09/2026DFortaleza FC (H) 2–2 · 11/09/2026DJunior (A) 3–3 · 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.38
xG against (recent avg)0.44
Elo strength rating1353
Santa FeJaguares
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.48
0.38
xG against (recent avg)
0.70
0.44
Elo strength rating
1621
1353

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Santa Fe

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Jaguares

Lost 3 in a row Winless 6
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Primera A

Santa Fe

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game)

Jaguares

Worst defence (1.80 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%) 2nd worst clean sheets (5)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Santa Fe at home · Jaguares away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Santa Fe (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–7D–3L
W 8
D 7
L 3
Played18
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Jaguares (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–11L
D 3
L 11
Played14
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score7
Santa Fe (home)Jaguares (away)
W 8
D 7
L 3
D 3
L 11
Played
18
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
2.20
Clean sheets
5
0
Failed to score
3
7

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
11.3%
1–0
10%
3–0
8%
2–1
7.6%
3–1
5.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Jaguares 3 wins · 2 draws · Santa Fe 5 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

3
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Feb 2026 Jaguares 3–1 Santa Fe Primera A
15 Nov 2024 Santa Fe 3–0 Jaguares Primera A
28 Apr 2024 Jaguares 1–0 Santa Fe Primera A
20 Jul 2023 Santa Fe 1–0 Jaguares Primera A
27 Jan 2023 Jaguares 2–2 Santa Fe Primera A
17 Oct 2022 Jaguares 2–1 Santa Fe Primera A
01 May 2022 Santa Fe 4–0 Jaguares Primera A
28 Oct 2021 Santa Fe 3–1 Jaguares Primera A
08 Feb 2021 Jaguares 0–1 Santa Fe Primera A
13 Oct 2020 Jaguares 1–1 Santa Fe Primera A

📈 Recent Form

Santa Fe

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
06/10 Independiente Medellin Away 1–0 W
29/09 Deportivo Pereira Away 2–1 W
25/09 Union Magdalena Away 1–1 D
23/09 Deportivo Cali Home 0–1 L
19/09 Alianza Valledupar Away 4–1 W

Jaguares

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03/10 Águilas Doradas Away 0–2 L
27/09 Alianza Valledupar Home 1–2 L
22/09 Independiente Medellin Away 1–2 L
11/09 Fortaleza FC Home 2–2 D
06/09 Junior Away 3–3 D

📊 Season Comparison — Primera A

Santa Fe #7 · 29 pts —  Jaguares #16 · 18 pts

Santa Fe

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–8D–4L
W 7
D 8
L 4
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets7
Failed to score5
Yellow cards90
Red cards7
xG for (avg)1.48
xG against (avg)0.70
Corners for (avg)4.10
Penalties (scored/missed)5/0

Jaguares

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–11L
W 5
D 3
L 11
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets5
Failed to score9
Yellow cards101
Red cards6
xG for (avg)0.38
xG against (avg)0.44
Corners for (avg)4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)5/1
Santa FeJaguares
W 7
D 8
L 4
W 5
D 3
L 11
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.80
Clean sheets
7
5
Failed to score
5
9
Yellow cards
90
101
Red cards
7
6
xG for (avg)
1.48
0.38
xG against (avg)
0.70
0.44
Corners for (avg)
4.10
4.90
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/0
5/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Santa Fe

2
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
10
11
46-60
8
8
61-75
10
10
76-90
14
scored conceded

Jaguares

9
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
10
61-75
4
11
76-90
10
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws