Predictions β†’ Colombia Primera A

Llaneros vs Santa Fe

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 23:05 UTC+3 β€’ Clausura - 15 β€’ Estadio Bello Horizonte β€’ 🌦 26Β°C, 2 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 75% 33.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 68% 67.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 48.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 66% 9.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 70% 28.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.2 exp.) Under 9.5 64% 55% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Llaneros 1.02 – 1.20 Santa Fe Β· expected total 2.22

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Llaneros host Santa Fe at Estadio Bello Horizonte in round 15 of the Clausura, and the table tells the story of the season so far: the visitors sit 7th on 29 points from 19 games, while the hosts are down in 14th on 22. Form points the same direction, with Llaneros arriving on a run of LLLWL and Santa Fe carrying WWDLW into this one.

The model leans on recent attacking output, and the gap is clear. Llaneros have been generating just 0.96 expected goals lately, while Santa Fe are creating 1.48. That feeds match expected goals of 1.0208 for the home side and 1.1959 for the away side, modest numbers that explain why the goals markets stay low. The head-to-head is worth noting too: Santa Fe won 0-1 in April 2026, Llaneros took a 1-3 win in October 2025, and Santa Fe won 0-1 in May 2025. No injuries are reported on either side.

The headline tip is an away win at 33.9 percent with 75 confidence, and the double chance X2 at 67.5 percent is the safer route to the same idea. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.5 percent, while Under 2.5 goals comes in at 51.8 percent. The correct score model favours 0-1 at 9.4 percent, with 1-2 at 7.96 and 0-2 at 7.79 close behind. Corners point Under 9.5 at 55 percent against an expected 8.2.

The honest caveat: a 33.9 percent away win is not a dominant edge, and the draw sits at 28.2 percent with 70 confidence, so this is a match where the X2 cover and the unders make more sense than chasing the outright result.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Llaneros

Form (last 5)
LOnce Caldas (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026LAmerica de Cali (H) 1–2 Β· 05/10/2026LCucuta (A) 1–2 Β· 26/09/2026WAtletico Nacional (H) 2–0 Β· 21/09/2026LInternacional de Bogota (A) 2–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.67
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1429

Santa Fe

Form (last 5)
WIndependiente Medellin (A) 1–0 Β· 06/10/2026WDeportivo Pereira (A) 2–1 Β· 29/09/2026DUnion Magdalena (A) 1–1 Β· 25/09/2026LDeportivo Cali (H) 0–1 Β· 23/09/2026WAlianza Valledupar (A) 4–1 Β· 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.48
xG against (recent avg)0.70
Elo strength rating1621
LlanerosSanta Fe
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.67
1.48
xG against (recent avg)
1.03
0.70
Elo strength rating
1429
1621

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Llaneros

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Santa Fe

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Primera A

Llaneros

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Santa Fe

2nd best attack (1.50 goals/game)

Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Llaneros at home Β· Santa Fe away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Llaneros (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–7D–4L
W 4
D 7
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3

Santa Fe (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–7D–4L
W 6
D 7
L 4
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Llaneros (home)Santa Fe (away)
W 4
D 7
L 4
W 6
D 7
L 4
Played
15
17
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.10
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
9.4%
1–2
6.4%
0–2
6.3%
1–3
2.5%
0–3
2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Llaneros 2 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Santa Fe 1 win Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 3

2
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
01 Apr 2026 Santa Fe 0–1 Llaneros Primera A
12 Oct 2025 Santa Fe 1–3 Llaneros Primera A
01 May 2025 Llaneros 0–1 Santa Fe Primera A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Llaneros

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Once Caldas Away 0–1 L
05/10 America de Cali Home 1–2 L
26/09 Cucuta Away 1–2 L
21/09 Atletico Nacional Home 2–0 W
12/09 Internacional de Bogota Away 2–3 L

Santa Fe

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
06/10 Independiente Medellin Away 1–0 W
29/09 Deportivo Pereira Away 2–1 W
25/09 Union Magdalena Away 1–1 D
23/09 Deportivo Cali Home 0–1 L
19/09 Alianza Valledupar Away 4–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Primera A

Llaneros #14 Β· 22 pts β€”  Santa Fe #7 Β· 29 pts

Llaneros

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–10D–5L
W 4
D 10
L 5
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets9
Failed to score8
Yellow cards94
Red cards9
xG for (avg)0.67
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/3

Santa Fe

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–8D–4L
W 7
D 8
L 4
Played19
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets7
Failed to score5
Yellow cards90
Red cards7
xG for (avg)1.48
xG against (avg)0.70
Corners for (avg)4.10
Penalties (scored/missed)5/0
LlanerosSanta Fe
W 4
D 10
L 5
W 7
D 8
L 4
Played
19
19
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.10
Clean sheets
9
7
Failed to score
8
5
Yellow cards
94
90
Red cards
9
7
xG for (avg)
0.67
1.48
xG against (avg)
1.03
0.70
Corners for (avg)
4.20
4.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/3
5/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Llaneros

7
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
5
61-75
4
7
76-90
4
scored conceded

Santa Fe

2
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
10
11
46-60
8
8
61-75
10
10
76-90
14
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Primera A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws