Predictions β†’ England Championship

Bristol City vs Blackburn

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Ashton Gate Stadium β€’ β˜€οΈ 14.9Β°C, 14 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.95 β†’ 2.16 β–²11% 80% 46.7% 2.16 Dafabet 46.6% +0.1 pp
Double Chance 1X 74% 75.2% 1.31 Betano 73.9% +1.3 pp
BTTS Yes 80% 48.1% 1.75 William Hill 54.5% -6.4 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 48.1% 1.95 SBO 51.4% -3.3 pp
Correct Score 1-0 66% 9.1% 8.50 Bet365 6% +3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 57% 1.65 Pinnacle 59.5% -2.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Bristol City 1.58 – 0.96 Blackburn Β· expected total 2.53

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Bristol City host Blackburn at Ashton Gate on Tuesday night sitting 10th in the Championship on 14 points from 9 games, three places and two points better off than their 13th-placed visitors. With both sides mid-table and separated by a single result, this is the kind of fixture that shapes the mood around two clubs still finding their level.

The model leans toward the home side, and the underlying numbers back it. Bristol City's recent expected goals sit at 1.66 against Blackburn's 0.89, and the season-long attacking figures read 1.5757 versus 0.959. Form is level on paper β€” both arrive with DWWLL from their last five β€” but the standings and the shot-quality gap point the same way. Both squads are badly stretched, with nine Bristol City names and twelve Blackburn names unavailable, so depth will matter as much as shape.

The headline tip is a home win at a model probability of 46.7 percent, priced at 2.16, with confidence rated 80. If you want a cushion, the double chance 1X lands at 75.2 percent. The goals markets are tighter: BTTS Yes is rated 48.1 percent at 1.75, and Under 2.5 also sits at 48.1 percent at 1.95, so neither screams value. The correct-score model favours 1-0 at 9.1 percent, with 1-0 (11.31), 2-0 (9.86) and 2-1 (9.45) the leading scorelines. Corners look the most comfortable angle, with Over 9.5 at 57 percent against an expected 12.

The honest caveat: recent head-to-heads are wildly inconsistent β€” Blackburn won 3-0 and Bristol City 5-0 in past meetings β€” and with this many absentees, one early goal could flip the whole script.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bristol City

Form (last 5)
DCharlton (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WCrystal Palace (A) 2–0 Β· 03/10/2026WWatford (H) 1–0 Β· 18/09/2026LLincoln (H) 0–1 Β· 15/09/2026LSouthampton (A) 1–4 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.17
xG against (recent avg)0.72
Elo strength rating1518
Players out9

Blackburn

Form (last 5)
WCardiff (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026DPortsmouth (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WMillwall (H) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSheffield Utd (H) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026LPreston (A) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.68
xG against (recent avg)1.08
Elo strength rating1343
Players out12
Bristol CityBlackburn
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.17
0.68
xG against (recent avg)
0.72
1.08
Elo strength rating
1518
1343
Players out
9
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bristol City

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Blackburn

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Bristol City

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Blackburn

Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bristol City at home Β· Blackburn away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bristol City (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–2L
W 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2

Blackburn (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–1L
D 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Bristol City (home)Blackburn (away)
W 2
L 2
D 3
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.50
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
2
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.1%
2–0
7.9%
2–1
7.6%
3–0
4.2%
3–1
4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Blackburn 3 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Bristol City 5 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Feb 2026 Blackburn 1–2 Bristol City Championship
04 Nov 2025 Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn Championship
25 Jan 2025 Bristol City 2–1 Blackburn Championship
14 Sep 2024 Blackburn 3–0 Bristol City Championship
10 Apr 2024 Bristol City 5–0 Blackburn Championship
12 Dec 2023 Blackburn 2–1 Bristol City Championship
21 Jan 2023 Bristol City 1–1 Blackburn Championship
03 Sep 2022 Blackburn 2–3 Bristol City Championship
12 Mar 2022 Blackburn 0–1 Bristol City Championship
20 Nov 2021 Bristol City 1–1 Blackburn Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bristol City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Charlton Away 1–1 D
03/10 Crystal Palace Away 2–0 W
18/09 Watford Home 1–0 W
15/09 Lincoln Home 0–1 L
12/09 Southampton Away 1–4 L

Blackburn

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Cardiff Home 2–1 W
19/09 Portsmouth Away 2–2 D
12/09 Millwall Home 3–1 W
08/09 Sheffield Utd Home 1–2 L
05/09 Preston Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Bristol City #10 Β· 14 pts β€”  Blackburn #13 Β· 12 pts

Bristol City

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–3L
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.17
xG against (avg)0.72
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Blackburn

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–3L
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards24
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)1.08
Corners for (avg)7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Bristol CityBlackburn
W 4
D 2
L 3
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.40
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
2
1
Yellow cards
13
24
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.17
0.68
xG against (avg)
0.72
1.08
Corners for (avg)
6.10
7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bristol City

1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
5
scored conceded

Blackburn

3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Bristol City

  • ❌ L. McNally β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ O. Thomas β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Pring β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Randell β€” Red Card
  • ❌ B. De Keersmaecker β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ E. Adebayo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Dickie β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Eile β€” Illness
  • ❌ L. Tolaj β€” Knock

Blackburn

  • ❌ M. Baradji β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. De Neve β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Jorgensen β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Kargbo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Miller β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ S. Wharton β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Litherland β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ohashi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ H. Pickering β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Atcheson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Forshaw β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ribeiro β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: David Webb