Predictions β†’ England Championship

West Brom vs Blackburn

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ The Hawthorns β€’ ☁️ 10.6Β°C, 11 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 76% 36.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 71% 72.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 50.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 56.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 73% 13% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.3 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: West Brom 1.06 – 0.78 Blackburn Β· expected total 1.84

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

West Brom host Blackburn at The Hawthorns on Saturday with both sides stuck in mid-table and in need of a spark. The Baggies sit 9th on 14 points from 9 games, while Rovers are 13th on 12 points from the same number of matches, so this is a fixture where three points would meaningfully shift the mood.

The model leans toward the home side, giving West Brom a 36.3 percent win probability at 76 confidence, with the double chance on 1X priced at 72.1 percent. Recent form is patchy on both sides: West Brom arrive on LLDWW, Blackburn on WDWLL. The expected goals picture is modest, with the hosts at 1.0616 and the visitors at 0.7763, and recent xG figures of 0.92 and 0.89 respectively, which explains why Under 2.5 carries a 56.4 percent probability and BTTS No sits at 50.9 percent. The correct score model points to 1-0 at 13 percent, with 1-0 also the most likely individual scoreline at 15.59, ahead of 2-0 at 8.97 and 2-1 at 6.96.

Blackburn's injury list is the standout detail here, with twelve names unavailable including M. Baradji, D. De Neve and A. Kargbo, while West Brom are missing four in T. Bany, M. Johnston, N. Galves and B. Pereira. The head-to-head offers little comfort for goals backers: 0-0, 1-0, 0-2, 0-0 and 4-1 across the last five meetings. Corners look the most interesting angle, with an expected 12.3 and a 57.6 percent probability of Over 9.5.

The honest caveat is that a 36.3 percent home win is far from dominant, and with both attacks misfiring, the draw is a live threat that the model does not fully price out.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

West Brom

Form (last 5)
LBirmingham (H) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026LWolves (A) 0–1 Β· 20/09/2026DQPR (H) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026WDerby (A) 1–0 Β· 09/09/2026WWatford (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.54
xG against (recent avg)0.58
Elo strength rating1311
Players out4

Blackburn

Form (last 5)
WCardiff (H) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026DPortsmouth (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WMillwall (H) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LSheffield Utd (H) 1–2 Β· 08/09/2026LPreston (A) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.68
xG against (recent avg)1.08
Elo strength rating1343
Players out12
West BromBlackburn
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.54
0.68
xG against (recent avg)
0.58
1.08
Elo strength rating
1311
1343
Players out
4
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

West Brom

Lost 2 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Blackburn

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

West Brom

3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%)

Blackburn

Best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

West Brom at home Β· Blackburn away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

West Brom (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Blackburn (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–1L
D 3
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
West Brom (home)Blackburn (away)
W 2
D 2
L 1
D 3
L 1
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.50
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
13%
2–0
7.5%
2–1
5.8%
3–0
2.6%
3–1
2.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Blackburn 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· West Brom 3 wins Β· avg 1.9 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

3
4
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
06 Apr 2026 Blackburn 0–0 West Brom Championship
09 Aug 2025 West Brom 1–0 Blackburn Championship
12 Feb 2025 West Brom 0–2 Blackburn Championship
23 Oct 2024 Blackburn 0–0 West Brom Championship
13 Jan 2024 West Brom 4–1 Blackburn Championship
05 Aug 2023 Blackburn 2–1 West Brom Championship
15 Feb 2023 West Brom 1–1 Blackburn Championship
14 Aug 2022 Blackburn 2–1 West Brom Championship
14 Feb 2022 West Brom 0–0 Blackburn Championship
21 Aug 2021 Blackburn 1–2 West Brom Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

West Brom

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Birmingham Home 0–1 L
20/09 Wolves Away 0–1 L
12/09 QPR Home 1–1 D
09/09 Derby Away 1–0 W
05/09 Watford Home 1–0 W

Blackburn

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Cardiff Home 2–1 W
19/09 Portsmouth Away 2–2 D
12/09 Millwall Home 3–1 W
08/09 Sheffield Utd Home 1–2 L
05/09 Preston Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

West Brom #9 Β· 14 pts β€”  Blackburn #13 Β· 12 pts

West Brom

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–3L
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.54
xG against (avg)0.58
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Blackburn

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–3L
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards24
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)1.08
Corners for (avg)7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
West BromBlackburn
W 4
D 2
L 3
W 3
D 3
L 3
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.40
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
2
1
Yellow cards
19
24
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
0.54
0.68
xG against (avg)
0.58
1.08
Corners for (avg)
5.60
7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

West Brom

0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Blackburn

3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

West Brom

  • ❌ T. Bany β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Johnston β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ N. Galves β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ B. Pereira β€” Red Card

Blackburn

  • ❌ M. Baradji β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. De Neve β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Jorgensen β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Kargbo β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ L. Miller β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ S. Wharton β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Litherland β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ohashi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ H. Pickering β€” Inactive
  • ❌ T. Atcheson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. Forshaw β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ Y. Ribeiro β€” Hamstring Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws