Predictions β†’ England Championship

Watford vs Charlton

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Vicarage Road β€’ 🌀 12.4Β°C, 19 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.04 β†’ 2.07 β–²1% 77% 39.2% 2.07 Dafabet 47.3% -8.1 pp
Double Chance 1X 65% 64.1% β€” β€” 73.9% -9.8 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 50.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 61% 52.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Watford 0.88 – 0.92 Charlton Β· expected total 1.80

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Watford host Charlton at Vicarage Road on Saturday with both sides desperate for a lift in this Championship regular season clash. The Hornets sit 20th on 8 points from 9 games, while the visitors are 12th on 13 points from the same number of outings, so the stakes are about stopping the rot rather than chasing the summit.

The model sees two blunt attacks. Watford's recent expected goals read 0.9 and Charlton's 0.86, with match lambdas of 0.8757 and 0.9197 respectively, which explains why the home side's form of LLLWL and the away side's DLDDL point to a tight, low-quality affair. Both squads are heavily depleted, with Watford listing ten absentees including T. Akomeah and K. Baah, and Charlton naming twelve, among them J. Edwards and C. Kelman.

The headline tip is a Watford home win at 39.2 percent probability and odds of 2.07, with confidence at 77. If you want a cushion, the 1X double chance lands at 64.1 percent. The goals markets lean defensive: No on both teams to score at 49.4 percent, Under 2.5 at 50.9 percent, and Under 9.5 corners at 52.9 percent with an expected 9.1. The correct score model favours 1-0 at 10.8 percent, with 1-0 the shortest in the top scores at 13.21.

The honest caveat is that 39.2 percent is not a dominant edge, and with Watford's form and both injury lists this long, the draw is a live threat that the numbers do not fully price out.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Watford

Form (last 5)
LBurnley (H) 0–4 Β· 10/10/2026LBristol City (A) 0–1 Β· 18/09/2026LStoke City (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026WPreston (H) 2–1 Β· 08/09/2026LWest Brom (A) 0–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.63
xG against (recent avg)1.33
Elo strength rating1335
Players out10

Charlton

Form (last 5)
DBristol City (H) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026LCardiff (A) 1–3 Β· 19/09/2026DPortsmouth (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026DQPR (H) 0–0 Β· 09/09/2026LStoke City (A) 0–4 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.75
xG against (recent avg)1.40
Elo strength rating1325
Players out12
WatfordCharlton
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.63
0.75
xG against (recent avg)
1.33
1.40
Elo strength rating
1335
1325
Players out
10
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Watford

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Charlton

Winless 6
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Watford

2nd worst attack (0.80 goals/game)

Charlton

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Watford at home Β· Charlton away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Watford (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1

Charlton (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Watford (home)Charlton (away)
W 2
D 1
L 2
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
2.30
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.8%
2–0
5.2%
2–1
4.8%
3–0
1.5%
3–1
1.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Charlton 4 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Watford 2 wins Β· avg 3.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 8

4
2
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
06 Apr 2026 Watford 1–1 Charlton Championship
09 Aug 2025 Charlton 1–0 Watford Championship
17 Jan 2015 Watford 5–0 Charlton Championship
13 Sep 2014 Charlton 1–0 Watford Championship
29 Apr 2014 Charlton 3–1 Watford Championship
14 Sep 2013 Watford 1–1 Charlton Championship
01 Jan 2013 Watford 3–4 Charlton Championship
02 Oct 2012 Charlton 1–2 Watford Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Watford

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Burnley Home 0–4 L
18/09 Bristol City Away 0–1 L
12/09 Stoke City Home 1–2 L
08/09 Preston Home 2–1 W
05/09 West Brom Away 0–1 L

Charlton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Bristol City Home 1–1 D
19/09 Cardiff Away 1–3 L
12/09 Portsmouth Home 0–0 D
09/09 QPR Home 0–0 D
05/09 Stoke City Away 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Watford #20 Β· 8 pts β€”  Charlton #12 Β· 13 pts

Watford

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–5L
W 2
D 2
L 5
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.63
xG against (avg)1.33
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Charlton

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–2L
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards15
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.75
xG against (avg)1.40
Corners for (avg)3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
WatfordCharlton
W 2
D 2
L 5
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.20
Clean sheets
0
3
Failed to score
4
3
Yellow cards
23
15
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
0.63
0.75
xG against (avg)
1.33
1.40
Corners for (avg)
4.00
3.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Watford

3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
2
scored conceded

Charlton

2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Watford

  • ❌ T. Akomeah β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ K. Baah β€” Knock
  • ❌ M. Bola β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Grieves β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ J. Ngakia β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ O. H. Traore β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Boadu β€” Injury
  • ❌ B. Mlacic β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Bove β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Zemura β€” Muscle Injury

Charlton

  • ❌ J. Edwards β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ C. Kelman β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ M. Mbick β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Ouma β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ K. Ramsay β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ R. Burke β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Godden β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Koumetio β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ W. Mannion β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ C. Sichenje β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Chalobah β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. McNamara β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws