Predictions β†’ England Championship

Millwall vs Lincoln

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 11:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ The Den β€’ 🌀 12.2Β°C, 14 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS β€” No
Model 54.6% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 50.5% Β· Edge +7.7 pp
Best odds 1.98 1xBet 1.98Marathonbet 1.95
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.1% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.88 β†’ 1.99 β–²6% 83% 53.3% 1.99 1xBet 50.4% +2.9 pp
Double Chance 1X 78% 81% 1.26 1xBet 75.9% +5.1 pp
BTTS No 84% 54.6% 1.98 1xBet 46.9% +7.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.6% 1.87 Marathonbet 50% -1.4 pp
Correct Score 1-0 71% 12% 7.50 Betfair 6% +6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Millwall 1.59 – 0.73 Lincoln Β· expected total 2.32

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Millwall host Lincoln at The Den on Saturday with the two sides separated by just three points in the Championship table. The Lions sit 8th on 14 points from 9 games, while Lincoln arrive 16th on 11 points, so this is a chance for the home side to pull clear of the mid-table pack.

The model leans heavily toward Millwall, who are priced at 1.99 for the win with a 53.3 percent probability and 83 percent confidence. Their recent expected goals of 2.32 dwarf Lincoln's 1.36, and the goal expectancy split of 1.5858 to 0.7312 underlines the gap. Form is mixed for both β€” Millwall's WDDLL against Lincoln's LLWWL β€” but the underlying numbers favour the hosts. The double chance 1X at 81 percent is the safer route, while both teams to score "No" at 54.6 percent (odds 1.98) looks a touch underrated given Lincoln's blunt attack. Under 2.5 goals at 48.6 percent (odds 1.87) is a marginal call, and the top correct score is 1-0 at 14.51 percent, with 2-0 next at 12.41.

The obvious risk is Millwall's lengthy injury list, which includes T. Crama, A. Doughty and M. Ivanovic among fourteen names β€” that kind of disruption can flatten a home advantage. Lincoln also carry six absentees. With no head-to-head history to lean on, trust the goal expectancy but keep stakes measured.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Millwall

Form (last 5)
WPreston (A) 1–0 Β· 10/10/2026DWest Ham (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DMiddlesbrough (A) 2–2 Β· 15/09/2026LBlackburn (A) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026LNewcastle (H) 0–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.52
xG against (recent avg)1.03
Elo strength rating1640
Players out14

Lincoln

Form (last 5)
LSheffield Utd (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026LSwansea (H) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026WBristol City (A) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026WPreston (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LBournemouth (A) 0–4 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.16
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1387
Players out6
MillwallLincoln
Goals scored (season avg)
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.52
1.16
xG against (recent avg)
1.03
0.84
Elo strength rating
1640
1387
Players out
14
6

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Millwall

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Lincoln

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Millwall

Best clean sheets (4)

Lincoln

2nd worst attack (0.80 goals/game) Best clean sheets (4)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Millwall at home Β· Lincoln away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Millwall (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1

Lincoln (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–2L
W 3
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Millwall (home)Lincoln (away)
W 2
D 1
L 1
W 3
L 2
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
2.30
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
12%
2–0
10.3%
2–1
7.5%
3–0
5.4%
3–1
4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Millwall

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Preston Away 1–0 W
19/09 West Ham Home 2–2 D
15/09 Middlesbrough Away 2–2 D
12/09 Blackburn Away 1–3 L
08/09 Newcastle Home 0–1 L

Lincoln

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Sheffield Utd Away 0–3 L
19/09 Swansea Home 1–2 L
15/09 Bristol City Away 1–0 W
12/09 Preston Away 1–0 W
08/09 Bournemouth Away 0–4 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Millwall #8 Β· 14 pts β€”  Lincoln #16 Β· 11 pts

Millwall

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–3L
W 4
D 2
L 3
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets4
Failed to score1
Yellow cards13
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.52
xG against (avg)1.03
Corners for (avg)2.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Lincoln

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–4L
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.16
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)2.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
MillwallLincoln
W 4
D 2
L 3
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.20
Clean sheets
4
4
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
13
23
Red cards
1
0
xG for (avg)
1.52
1.16
xG against (avg)
1.03
0.84
Corners for (avg)
2.20
2.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Millwall

0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
76-90
5
scored conceded

Lincoln

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Millwall

  • ❌ T. Crama β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Doughty β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ M. Ivanovic β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. Mazou-Sacko β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ M. Servais β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ F. Azeez β€” Abdominal strain
  • ❌ M. Luongo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Leonard β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ L. Cundle β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Jensen β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Coburn β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. De Norre β€” Injury
  • ❌ K. Lisbie β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Esse β€” Ankle Injury

Lincoln

  • ❌ S. Bradley β€” Knock
  • ❌ A. Jackson β€” Surgery
  • ❌ J. Collins β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Darikwa β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Hamer β€” Health problems
  • ❌ M. Melia β€” Thigh Injury

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws