Predictions β†’ England Championship

Lincoln vs West Ham

Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 10 β€’ Sincil Bank β€’ ☁️ 15.9Β°C, 20 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 54.1% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 43.5% Β· Edge +12.1 pp
Best odds 2.30 Betfair 2.30Betano 2.25Pinnacle 2.24
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.7 β†’ 1.68 β–Ό1% 84% 58.1% 1.68 Dafabet 60.2% -2.1 pp
Double Chance X2 75% 76.4% 1.21 Betano 81.9% -5.5 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.2% 2.20 Betfair 43.6% +5.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.2% 2.30 Betfair 42.1% +12.1 pp
Correct Score 0-1 76% 14.9% 8.50 Bet365 6% +8.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.7% 1.77 1xBet 55.6% -1.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Lincoln 0.66 – 1.11 West Ham Β· expected total 1.77

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Lincoln host West Ham at Sincil Bank on Wednesday night with the visitors chasing promotion and the hosts simply looking to steady a wobbling campaign. The table tells the story: West Ham sit 3rd on 16 points from 9 games, while Lincoln are 16th on 11 points from the same number of outings.

The model leans heavily on recent attacking output. West Ham's recent expected goals figure of 2.52 dwarfs Lincoln's 1.36, and that gap is reflected in the match lambdas of 1.1084 for the away side against just 0.6621 for the hosts. Form backs it up: West Ham arrive with DDLWW, Lincoln with LLWWL. Both squads are depleted, with six Lincoln absentees including S. Bradley and A. Jackson, and eight West Ham names out such as T. Soucek and A. Areola.

The headline tip is an away win at 58.1 percent, priced at 1.68, with 84 confidence. Double chance X2 lands at 76.4 percent. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 54.2 percent and odds of 2.3, while BTTS No sits at 49.2 percent and 2.2. The correct score model points to 0-1 at 14.9 percent, with 0-2 next at 10.46. Corners look lively: over 9.5 is tipped at 53.7 percent with an expected 10.3.

The value question is whether 1.68 adequately rewards a 58.1 percent probability, and whether the Under 2.5 and BTTS No markets offer better margin. The honest caveat: West Ham's injury list is long, and Lincoln's home crowd plus a low-scoring 0-1 in the last head-to-head meeting in 2023 suggest this could be tighter than the numbers imply.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Lincoln

Form (last 5)
LSheffield Utd (A) 0–3 Β· 10/10/2026LSwansea (H) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026WBristol City (A) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026WPreston (A) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LBournemouth (A) 0–4 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.16
xG against (recent avg)0.84
Elo strength rating1387
Players out6

West Ham

Form (last 5)
DQPR (H) 1–1 Β· 09/10/2026DMillwall (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LFulham (H) 2–3 Β· 15/09/2026WWrexham (H) 6–0 Β· 11/09/2026WBolton (A) 3–2 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.92
xG against (recent avg)1.13
Elo strength rating1482
Players out8
LincolnWest Ham
Goals scored (season avg)
0.80
2.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
2
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.16
1.92
xG against (recent avg)
0.84
1.13
Elo strength rating
1387
1482
Players out
6
8

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Lincoln

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

West Ham

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Lincoln

2nd worst attack (0.80 goals/game) Best clean sheets (4)

West Ham

Best attack (2.60 goals/game) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Lincoln at home Β· West Ham away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Lincoln (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–2L
D 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

West Ham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–0L
W 1
D 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Lincoln (home)West Ham (away)
D 2
L 2
W 1
D 3
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.80
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
1
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
14.9%
0–2
8.8%
1–2
5.9%
0–3
3.3%
1–3
2.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Lincoln 0 wins Β· 0 draws Β· West Ham 1 win Β· avg 1 goals Β· BTTS in 0 of 1

1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
27 Sep 2023 Lincoln 0–1 West Ham League Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Lincoln

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Sheffield Utd Away 0–3 L
19/09 Swansea Home 1–2 L
15/09 Bristol City Away 1–0 W
12/09 Preston Away 1–0 W
08/09 Bournemouth Away 0–4 L

West Ham

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 QPR Home 1–1 D
19/09 Millwall Away 2–2 D
15/09 Fulham Home 2–3 L
11/09 Wrexham Home 6–0 W
08/09 Bolton Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Lincoln #16 Β· 11 pts β€”  West Ham #3 Β· 16 pts

Lincoln

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–4L
W 3
D 2
L 4
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.16
xG against (avg)0.84
Corners for (avg)2.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

West Ham

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–4D–1L
W 4
D 4
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)2.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards20
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.92
xG against (avg)1.13
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)1/2
LincolnWest Ham
W 3
D 2
L 4
W 4
D 4
L 1
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
2.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.30
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
2
0
Yellow cards
23
20
Red cards
0
1
xG for (avg)
1.16
1.92
xG against (avg)
0.84
1.13
Corners for (avg)
2.60
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
1/2

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Lincoln

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

West Ham

1
0-15
3
6
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
6
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Lincoln

  • ❌ S. Bradley β€” Knock
  • ❌ A. Jackson β€” Surgery
  • ❌ J. Collins β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Darikwa β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ T. Hamer β€” Health problems
  • ❌ M. Melia β€” Thigh Injury

West Ham

  • ❌ Pablo β€” Health problems
  • ❌ T. Soucek β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ K. Lamadrid β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Mavropanos β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Areola β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ T. Castellanos β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Veltman β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Kante β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws