Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Next match: Wed, 14 Oct 2026 β’ 18:45 UTC+3 β’ Round 10 β’ Fratton Park β’ π€ 15.8Β°C, 13 km/h mostly clear
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
π― PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.48 β 2.3 βΌ7% | 76% | 36.7% | 2.30 | Betfair | 43.1% | -6.4 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 69% | 68.2% | 1.38 | Betano | 70% | -1.8 pp |
| BTTS | No | 82% | 51.5% | 2.05 | Betfair | 46.1% | +5.4 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 84% | 54.7% | 1.91 | Bet365 | 50.5% | +4.2 pp |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | 71% | 12.2% | 8.50 | Bet365 | 6% | +6.2 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.2 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 64% | 55.4% | 1.55 | 1xBet | 62.2% | -6.8 pp |
β½ Model expected goals: Portsmouth 0.93 β 0.82 Sheffield Utd Β· expected total 1.76
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β a big drop means the value window is closing.
π§ Match Preview
The model leans toward the home side, giving Portsmouth a 36.7 percent chance of the win at odds of 2.3, with the double chance 1X rated at 68.2 percent. Form is patchy at best: Portsmouth have gone DDWLL, Sheffield Utd WLLLW. The attacking numbers explain the caution. Portsmouth's recent expected goals sit at 1.26 against a match expectation of 0.9344, while Sheffield Utd's recent figure is just 0.47 against 0.8249. The visitors also carry the heavier treatment room, with six absentees listed against Portsmouth's lengthy twelve.
That shapes the goal markets. Under 2.5 is the call at 54.7 percent, priced 1.91, and BTTS No lands at 51.5 percent at 2.05. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14.76 percent within a 12.2 percent correct-score tip. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 is rated 55.4 percent with an expected 11.2.
The honest caveat is Portsmouth's home win probability of 36.7 percent β it is a lean, not a lock, and the 2.3 price offers only slim value. With both squads depleted and recent head-to-heads favouring Sheffield Utd, the safer plays sit in the unders and corners markets rather than the outright result.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β refreshed when the underlying data changes.
π What Drives the Prediction
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β each published with an evidence level (AβD) in How we predict β including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
π Team Trends
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
π Home vs Away Records
Portsmouth at home Β· Sheffield Utd away β the split that matters for this fixture.
Portsmouth (home)
Sheffield Utd (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
π― Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
βοΈ Head-to-Head
Portsmouth 1 win Β· 1 draw Β· Sheffield Utd 4 wins Β· avg 1.8 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 6
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Portsmouth | 0β1 | Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Sheffield Utd | 3β0 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Sheffield Utd | 2β1 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Portsmouth | 0β0 | Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| 20 Apr 2013 | Portsmouth | 3β0 | Sheffield Utd | League One |
| 29 Oct 2012 | Sheffield Utd | 1β0 | Portsmouth | League One |
π Recent Form
Portsmouth
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Blackburn | Home | 2β2 | D |
| 12/09 | Charlton | Away | 0β0 | D |
| 05/09 | Cardiff | Home | 2β0 | W |
| 01/09 | Derby | Home | 0β2 | L |
| 29/08 | Bristol City | Away | 1β2 | L |
Sheffield Utd
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Lincoln | Home | 3β0 | W |
| 19/09 | Stoke City | Away | 1β2 | L |
| 16/09 | Fleetwood Town | Away | 0β1 | L |
| 13/09 | Wolves | Home | 0β1 | L |
| 08/09 | Blackburn | Away | 2β1 | W |
π Season Comparison β Championship
Portsmouth #19 Β· 8 pts β Sheffield Utd #14 Β· 12 pts
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
β±οΈ Goal Timing (season)
Portsmouth
Sheffield Utd
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
π₯ Injuries & Suspensions
Portsmouth
- β K. Anderson β Injury
- β J. Bursik β Injury
- β J. Farrell β Groin Injury
- β M. Kosznovszky β Knee Injury
- β C. Ogilvie β Knee Injury
- β M. Pack β Knee Injury
- β F. Umeh β Hamstring Injury
- β T. Waddingham β Ankle Injury
- β H. Blair β Illness
- β J. Murphy β Injury
- β L. Brooke-Smith β Ankle Injury
- β Marezi β Calf Injury
Sheffield Utd
- β K. Phillips β Muscle Injury
- β J. Shackleton β Foot Injury
- β T. Chong β Injury
- β R. One β Hamstring Injury
- β H. Burrows β Inactive
- β F. Seriki β Inactive
More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws