Predictions β†’ England Championship

Southampton vs QPR

Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ St. Mary's Stadium β€’ ☁️ 12.4Β°C, 13 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 87% 64.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 84% 54.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 82% 51.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~7.7 exp.) Under 9.5 66% 56.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Southampton 2.10 – 1.06 QPR Β· expected total 3.16

🧠 Match Preview

Southampton and QPR meet at St. Mary's on Saturday level on 17 points from 11 games, seventh against ninth in the Championship table, so this is a direct scrap for position in the early-season promotion pack. The hosts arrive on a WWLWW run; QPR are unbeaten but drawing everything, WDDDD.

The model leans heavily home. Southampton's expected goals figure is 2.1019 against QPR's 1.055, and recent shot quality backs the gap (1.78 versus 1.62). The home side is missing C. Jander, T. Harwood-Bellis, F. Downes and C. Bragg, but QPR's absentee list is brutal: K. Dembele, R. Kolli, B. Kemper, J. Obikwu, I. Chair, J. Dunne, R. Kone, T. Lamptey, R. Burrell, D. Cirkin, A. S. Mbengue and K. Saito. Recent head-to-heads are one-sided too, including a 5-0 Southampton win in February 2026.

The headline tip is a home win at 64.5 percent with confidence of 87; the safer cover is 1X at 79.7 percent. Both teams to score lands at 54.3 percent and over 2.5 goals at 51.4 percent, so the goals markets are close to coin-flips rather than convictions. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.98 percent, ahead of 2-0 at 9.46 and 1-0 at 8.05. Corners look low: an expected 7.7, with under 9.5 at 56.4 percent. No bookmaker odds were supplied, so value can't be measured directly; the honest risk is that QPR's five draws show a stubborn side, and with no prices to compare, treat the 64.5 percent as a guide, not a guarantee.

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 10:07 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Southampton

Form (last 5)
WNorwich (A) 1–0 Β· 14/10/2026WPortsmouth (H) 1–0 Β· 11/10/2026LWrexham (A) 1–2 Β· 19/09/2026WBristol City (H) 4–1 Β· 12/09/2026WSwansea (H) 3–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.78
xG against (recent avg)1.25
Elo strength rating1721
Players out4

QPR

Form (last 5)
WDerby (H) 4–1 Β· 14/10/2026DWest Ham (A) 1–1 Β· 09/10/2026DPreston (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026DWest Brom (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026DCharlton (A) 0–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.90
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.62
xG against (recent avg)1.18
Elo strength rating1461
Players out12
SouthamptonQPR
Goals scored (season avg)
2.10
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
0.90
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.78
1.62
xG against (recent avg)
1.25
1.18
Elo strength rating
1721
1461
Players out
4
12

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Southampton

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

QPR

Unbeaten 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Southampton

2nd best attack (2.10 goals/game) 3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game)

QPR

2nd best defence (0.90 conceded/game)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Southampton at home Β· QPR away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Southampton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–0D–0L
W 5
Played5
Goals scored (avg)3.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0

QPR (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–0L
W 2
D 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Southampton (home)QPR (away)
W 5
W 2
D 3
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
3.20
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
0.80
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.9%
2–0
7.5%
1–0
6.4%
3–1
5.5%
3–0
5.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

QPR 1 win Β· 0 draws Β· Southampton 7 wins Β· avg 2.9 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 8

1
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
24 Feb 2026 Southampton 5–0 QPR Championship
05 Nov 2025 QPR 1–2 Southampton Championship
23 Dec 2023 QPR 0–1 Southampton Championship
26 Aug 2023 Southampton 2–1 QPR Championship
07 Feb 2015 QPR 0–1 Southampton Premier League
27 Sep 2014 Southampton 2–1 QPR Premier League
02 Mar 2013 Southampton 1–2 QPR Premier League
17 Nov 2012 QPR 1–3 Southampton Premier League

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Southampton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Norwich Away 1–0 W
11/10 Portsmouth Home 1–0 W
19/09 Wrexham Away 1–2 L
12/09 Bristol City Home 4–1 W
08/09 Swansea Home 3–1 W

QPR

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Derby Home 4–1 W
09/10 West Ham Away 1–1 D
19/09 Preston Home 2–2 D
12/09 West Brom Away 1–1 D
09/09 Charlton Away 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Southampton #7 Β· 17 pts β€”  QPR #9 Β· 17 pts

Southampton

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–3D–2L
W 6
D 3
L 2
Played11
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards21
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.78
xG against (avg)1.25
Corners for (avg)3.30
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

QPR

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–2L
W 4
D 5
L 2
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards19
Red cards1
xG for (avg)1.62
xG against (avg)1.18
Corners for (avg)4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
SouthamptonQPR
W 6
D 3
L 2
W 4
D 5
L 2
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
2.10
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
0.90
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
0
3
Yellow cards
21
19
Red cards
1
1
xG for (avg)
1.78
1.62
xG against (avg)
1.25
1.18
Corners for (avg)
3.30
4.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Southampton

2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
7
scored conceded

QPR

2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Southampton

  • ❌ C. Jander β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ T. Harwood-Bellis β€” Injury
  • ❌ F. Downes β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ C. Bragg β€” Red Card

QPR

  • ❌ K. Dembele β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Kolli β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ B. Kemper β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ J. Obikwu β€” Shin Injury
  • ❌ I. Chair β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Dunne β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Kone β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Lamptey β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Burrell β€” Inactive
  • ❌ D. Cirkin β€” Red Card
  • ❌ A. S. Mbengue β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ K. Saito β€” Inactive

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws