Predictions → England EFL Trophy

Burton Albion vs Notts County

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Tue, 10 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Group North - 6 • Pirelli Stadium • 🌦 8.4°C, 1 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw Current price not available26.4% —
Double Chance X2 Current price not available67.4% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available61.3% · No 38.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available42.3% · Over 57.7% —
Correct Score 1-1 Current price not available12.3% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.5 exp.) Under 9.5 Current price not available50.3% · Over 49.7% —

🧠 Match Preview

Model view

Model 1X2 split: Burton Albion 32.6% · Draw 26.4% · Notts County 41.0%. Selected outcome: Draw.

Goals

Model expected goals: Burton Albion 1.41, Notts County 1.60, expected total 3.00.

Price check

No current price is available, so model EV cannot be calculated.

Form / H2H

Burton Albion: L-W-D-D-L in their last five matches.
Notts County: W-D-W-L-W in their last five matches.
Last meeting: Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion, 29 Aug 2026.
Historical form, not a probability for the next match.

Limitations

Lineups, injuries and late team news can change the outlook. Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Burton Albion

Form (last 5)
LWDDL
Goals scored (season avg)0.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Best league winning streak this season1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.60
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.57
Elo strength rating—

Notts County

Form (last 5)
WDWLW
Goals scored (season avg)3.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Best league winning streak this season2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.69
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.14
Elo strength rating1376
Burton AlbionNotts County
LWDDL
WDWLW
Goals scored (season avg)
0.50
3.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.00
Best league winning streak this season
1
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.60
0.69
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.57
1.14
Elo strength rating
—
1376

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Burton Albion

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
3/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Notts County

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Burton Albion at home · Notts County away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Burton Albion (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–1L
L 1
Played1
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0

Notts County (away)

Played0
Goals scored (avg)0.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Burton Albion (home)Notts County (away)
L 1
Played
1
0
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
0.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
0
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
12.28%
2–2
6.27%
0–0
6.08%
3–3
1.57%
4–4
0.22%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Burton Albion 0 wins · 0 draws · Notts County 3 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 3

3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Aug 2026 Notts County 2–1 Burton Albion League One
24 Sep 2024 Burton Albion 1–2 Notts County EFL Trophy
03 Sep 2013 Notts County 1–0 Burton Albion EFL Trophy

📈 Recent Form

Burton Albion

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Wycombe Away 0–2 L
24/10 Leyton Orient Home 2–1 W
20/10 Bradford Home 0–0 D
17/10 Peterborough Away 2–2 D
10/10 Doncaster Away 0–1 L
03/10 Huddersfield Home 1–3 L
26/09 Plymouth Away 1–0 W
19/09 Mansfield Town Home 2–2 D
12/09 Oxford United Away 0–3 L
05/09 Cambridge United Home 2–2 D

Notts County

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Mansfield Town Away 2–0 W
24/10 Stockport County Home 1–1 D
20/10 Sheffield Wednesday Home 2–0 W
17/10 Wycombe Away 0–2 L
13/10 Nottingham Forest U21 Home 5–1 W
10/10 Oxford United Home 1–2 L
22/09 Grimsby Home 2–1 W
19/09 Reading Away 0–2 L
12/09 Bradford Home 0–1 L
05/09 Huddersfield Away 1–1 D

📊 Season Comparison: EFL Trophy

Burton Albion

Played2
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards4
Red cards1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.60
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.57
Corners for (avg)5.80
Penalties (scored/missed)3/2

Notts County

Played2
Goals scored (avg)3.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Yellow cards3
Red cards0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.69
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.14
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Burton AlbionNotts County
Played
2
2
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
3.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
1
0
Yellow cards
4
3
Red cards
1
0
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.60
0.69
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.57
1.14
Corners for (avg)
5.80
3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/2
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Burton Albion

0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
3
scored conceded

Notts County

0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: EFL Trophy predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws