Salford City vs Crawley Town
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Peninsula Stadium • ⛅ 12.3°C, 9 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.42 → 1.45 ▲2% | 91% | 75.2% | 1.45 | Dafabet | 69% | +6.2 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 81% | 85.1% | 1.13 | BetVictor | 86.7% | -1.6 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 48.6% | 1.65 | Betano | 57.7% | -9.1 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 49.1% | 1.48 | Bet365 | 65.1% | -16 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | 67% | 9.6% | 9.00 | Bet365 | 5.7% | +3.9 pp |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 65% | 56% | 1.40 | 1xBet | 65.3% | -9.3 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Salford City 2.15 – 0.82 Crawley Town · expected total 2.97
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model sees a home side generating serious attacking output. Salford's recent expected goals sit at 1.96, and their match projection of 2.1526 dwarfs Crawley's 0.8183, whose recent xG of 1.22 offers little comfort against the league leaders. No injuries are listed for either side, so both managers have full squads to choose from. The head-to-head is tighter than the standings suggest, with a 0-0 last May and a 4-3 Salford win in November 2025 among the last five meetings, which is worth keeping in mind.
The headline tip is a home win at 75.2% probability, priced at 1.45, with confidence rated 91. Double chance 1X comes in at 85.1%. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 48.6% (odds 1.65), and over 2.5 goals sits at 49.1% (odds 1.48) — both markets look thin on value. The correct-score model favours 2-0 at 9.6%, with 1-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners offer the most interesting angle: over 9.5 is tipped at 56% with an expected 11.5.
The honest caveat is Crawley's habit of dragging Salford into tight, low-scoring affairs — that 0-0 in May shows the away side can frustrate. At 1.45 the home win is short, so the corner market may be where the real edge hides.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Salford City
Crawley Town
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Salford City
Crawley Town
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — League Two
Salford City
Crawley Town
Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Salford City at home · Crawley Town away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Salford City (home)
Crawley Town (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Crawley Town 3 wins · 4 draws · Salford City 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 2026 | Crawley Town | 0–0 | Salford City | League Two |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Salford City | 4–3 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Crawley Town | 0–1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 12 Aug 2023 | Salford City | 1–1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Crawley Town | 3–2 | Salford City | League Two |
| 03 Sep 2022 | Salford City | 2–2 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 29 Mar 2022 | Salford City | 2–1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Crawley Town | 2–1 | Salford City | League Two |
| 09 Mar 2021 | Crawley Town | 1–0 | Salford City | League Two |
| 24 Oct 2020 | Salford City | 1–1 | Crawley Town | League Two |
📈 Recent Form
Salford City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Cheltenham | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Fleetwood Town | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Oldham | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 22/09 | Sheffield Wednesday | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Swindon Town | Home | 1–0 | W |
Crawley Town
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Chesterfield | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 06/10 | Bromley | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 22/09 | Milton Keynes Dons | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 19/09 | Grimsby | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Cheltenham | Home | 1–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison — League Two
Salford City #1 · 19 pts — Crawley Town #24 · 5 pts
Salford City
Crawley Town
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Salford City
Crawley Town
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws