Fleetwood Town vs Rotherham

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 11:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Highbury Stadium • 🌤 4.3°C, 31 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Double Chance — 1X

Model 77.3% · Market best price ≈ 66.7% · Edge +12.6 pp

Best odds 1.50 Bet365 1.50Betano 1.50William Hill 1.44

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¼ Kelly sizing: 6.7% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	78%	39.7%	2.50	Bet365	38.4%	+1.3 pp
Double Chance	1X	75%	77.3%	1.50	Bet365	64.7%	+12.6 pp
BTTS	No	81%	48.5%	2.10	Betfair	45.2%	+3.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	82%	51.2%	1.90	Bet365	50%	+1.2 pp
Correct Score	1-0	67%	9.6%	9.00	Bet365	5.6%	+4 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.9 exp.)	Under 9.5	62%	53.4%	1.93	Betano	48.5%	+4.9 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.62 – 0.90 Rotherham · expected total 2.51

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Fleetwood Town host Rotherham at Highbury Stadium on Saturday for a League Two round 11 fixture that matters more than the table suggests. Fleetwood sit 16th on 11 points from 10 games, Rotherham 20th on 10 points, so this is a chance for either side to pull clear of the early-season scrap.

The model leans home. Fleetwood's recent form reads DWLLL, Rotherham's LLLDW, and the expected goals split is telling: Fleetwood carry a home figure of 1.6176 against Rotherham's away 0.8961. Recent shot quality flips that somewhat, with Rotherham's recent expected goals at 2.51 versus Fleetwood's 1.74, a warning that the visitors are creating more than their results show. No injuries are listed for either squad. Head-to-head is mixed, though Fleetwood won the most recent meeting 2-1.

The headline tip is a home win at 39.7 percent, priced at 2.5, with confidence at 78. Double chance 1X lands at 77.3 percent and looks the safer anchor. The model favours No on both teams to score at 48.5 percent (odds 2.1) and Under 2.5 goals at 51.2 percent (odds 1.9), consistent with a low-scoring read. The top correct score is 1-0 at 9.6 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners point Under 9.5 at 53.4 percent, with 8.9 expected.

The honest caveat: Rotherham's recent expected goals of 2.51 sits awkwardly against a home win and an Under lean, so if that chance creation converts, both the result and the goals markets could turn.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Fleetwood Town

Form (last 5)

DWalsall (H) 1–1 · 10/10/2026WBarnsley (H) 4–1 · 06/10/2026LSalford City (A) 0–1 · 03/10/2026 LRochdale (H) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LOldham (A) 0–1 · 22/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.54

xG against (recent avg)0.97

Elo strength rating1421

Rotherham

Form (last 5)

LGillingham (H) 1–4 · 10/10/2026LBradford (H) 0–4 · 06/10/2026LExeter City (A) 0–1 · 03/10/2026 DCrewe (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026 WNorthampton (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.07

xG against (recent avg)0.66

Elo strength rating1352

Fleetwood TownRotherham

DWalsall (H) 1–1 · 10/10/2026WBarnsley (H) 4–1 · 06/10/2026LSalford City (A) 0–1 · 03/10/2026 LRochdale (H) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LOldham (A) 0–1 · 22/09/2026

LGillingham (H) 1–4 · 10/10/2026LBradford (H) 0–4 · 06/10/2026LExeter City (A) 0–1 · 03/10/2026 DCrewe (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026 WNorthampton (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.00

1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.10

1.60

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.54

1.07

xG against (recent avg)

0.97

0.66

Elo strength rating

1421

1352

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Fleetwood Town

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Rotherham

Lost 3 in a row Winless 4

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Fleetwood Town at home · Rotherham away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Fleetwood Town (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–1L

W 1

D 3

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)0.80

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Rotherham (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–3L

W 1

D 1

L 3

Played5

Goals scored (avg)0.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets1

Failed to score2

Fleetwood Town (home)Rotherham (away)

W 1

D 3

L 1

W 1

D 1

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

0.80

Goals conceded (avg)

0.80

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

9.6%

2–0

8.5%

2–1

7.6%

3–0

4.6%

3–1

4.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Fleetwood Town 4 wins · 1 draw · Rotherham 3 wins · avg 3.1 goals · BTTS in 4 of 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
27 Aug 2024	Fleetwood Town	2–1	Rotherham	League Cup
07 Jul 2022	Rotherham	2–0	Fleetwood Town	Friendlies Clubs
07 Jul 2022	Fleetwood Town	0–2	Rotherham	Friendlies Clubs
15 Jan 2022	Fleetwood Town	1–0	Rotherham	League One
11 Sep 2021	Rotherham	2–4	Fleetwood Town	League One
21 Dec 2019	Rotherham	2–2	Fleetwood Town	League One
07 Apr 2018	Rotherham	3–2	Fleetwood Town	League One
05 Aug 2017	Fleetwood Town	2–0	Rotherham	League One

📈 Recent Form

Fleetwood Town

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Walsall	Home	1–1	D
06/10	Barnsley	Home	4–1	W
03/10	Salford City	Away	0–1	L
26/09	Rochdale	Home	1–2	L
22/09	Oldham	Away	0–1	L

Rotherham

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Gillingham	Home	1–4	L
06/10	Bradford	Home	0–4	L
03/10	Exeter City	Away	0–1	L
26/09	Crewe	Home	1–1	D
19/09	Northampton	Away	1–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — League Two

Fleetwood Town #16 · 11 pts — Rotherham #20 · 10 pts

Fleetwood Town

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–3L

W 2

D 5

L 3

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Yellow cards26

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.54

xG against (avg)0.97

Corners for (avg)4.30

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Rotherham

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–4L

W 2

D 4

L 4

Played10

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets1

Failed to score2

Yellow cards20

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.07

xG against (avg)0.66

Corners for (avg)4.40

Penalties (scored/missed)3/1

Fleetwood TownRotherham

W 2

D 5

L 3

W 2

D 4

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

1.20

Goals conceded (avg)

1.10

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.54

1.07

xG against (avg)

0.97

0.66

Corners for (avg)

4.30

4.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

3/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Fleetwood Town

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Rotherham

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws