Merthyr Town vs Morecambe

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • National League North - 13

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	80%	45.6%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	73%	73.7%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	No	78%	44.3%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	81%	49.1%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	1-0	68%	10.1%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Merthyr Town 1.41 – 0.92 Morecambe · expected total 2.33

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Merthyr Town

Form (last 5)

DDarlington 1883 (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026 LMarine (H) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LTruro City (A) 0–2 · 22/09/2026DTruro City (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026DScarborough Athletic (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.20

Goals conceded (season avg)1.10

Win streak (best this season)2

Elo strength rating1594

Morecambe

Form (last 5)

LWorksop Town (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026WDarlington 1883 (H) 3–0 · 03/10/2026DOxford City (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026WSouthport (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WBrackley Town (H) 3–0 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)3

Elo strength rating1442

Merthyr TownMorecambe

DDarlington 1883 (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026 LMarine (H) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LTruro City (A) 0–2 · 22/09/2026DTruro City (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026DScarborough Athletic (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026

LWorksop Town (A) 1–2 · 10/10/2026WDarlington 1883 (H) 3–0 · 03/10/2026DOxford City (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026WSouthport (H) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WBrackley Town (H) 3–0 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.20

1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.10

1.00

Win streak (best this season)

Elo strength rating

1594

1442

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Merthyr Town

Winless 5

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

1/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Morecambe

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — National League North

Merthyr Town

Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Morecambe

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 24 National League North teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Merthyr Town at home · Morecambe away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Merthyr Town (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L

W 2

D 2

L 1

Played5

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Morecambe (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L

W 1

D 1

L 4

Played6

Goals scored (avg)0.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score1

Merthyr Town (home)Morecambe (away)

W 2

D 2

L 1

W 1

D 1

L 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

0.80

Goals conceded (avg)

1.20

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

10.1%

2–0

7.8%

2–1

7.2%

3–0

3.7%

3–1

3.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

📈 Recent Form

Merthyr Town

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Darlington 1883	Away	1–1	D
26/09	Marine	Home	1–2	L
22/09	Truro City	Away	0–2	L
19/09	Truro City	Home	1–1	D
12/09	Scarborough Athletic	Away	0–0	D

Morecambe

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Worksop Town	Away	1–2	L
03/10	Darlington 1883	Home	3–0	W
26/09	Oxford City	Away	1–1	D
19/09	Southport	Home	2–0	W
12/09	Brackley Town	Home	3–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — National League North

Merthyr Town #15 · 15 pts — Morecambe #19 · 14 pts

Merthyr Town

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–3L

W 3

D 6

L 3

Played12

Goals scored (avg)1.20

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Yellow cards0

Red cards2

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Morecambe

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–2D–5L

W 4

D 2

L 5

Played11

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets3

Failed to score2

Yellow cards0

Red cards0

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Merthyr TownMorecambe

W 3

D 6

L 3

W 4

D 2

L 5

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.20

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

1.10

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Merthyr Town

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Morecambe

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: National League North predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws