Predictions → England National League North

Oxford City vs Merthyr Town

Next match: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 • 19:45 UTC+3 • National League North - 14 • RAW Charging Stadium

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 88% 66.8% — — — —
Double Chance 1X 78% 81.7% — — — —
BTTS No 79% 45.5% — — — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 79% 45.9% — — — —
Correct Score 2-0 65% 8.6% — — — —

⚽ Model expected goals: Oxford City 2.04 – 0.93 Merthyr Town · expected total 2.96

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Oxford City

Form (last 5)
WHebburn Town (A) 3–0 · 10/10/2026WEnfield Town (H) 6–1 · 03/10/2026DMorecambe (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026WDorchester Town (A) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WRadcliffe (A) 3–0 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1481

Merthyr Town

Form (last 5)
DDarlington 1883 (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026LMarine (H) 1–2 · 26/09/2026LTruro City (A) 0–2 · 22/09/2026DTruro City (H) 1–1 · 19/09/2026DScarborough Athletic (A) 0–0 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1594
Oxford CityMerthyr Town
WHebburn Town (A) 3–0 · 10/10/2026WEnfield Town (H) 6–1 · 03/10/2026DMorecambe (H) 1–1 · 26/09/2026WDorchester Town (A) 2–0 · 19/09/2026WRadcliffe (A) 3–0 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
Elo strength rating
1481
1594

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Oxford City

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 5
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Merthyr Town

Winless 5
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — National League North

Oxford City

2nd best attack (1.90 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (6)

Merthyr Town

Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rank among 24 National League North teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Oxford City at home · Merthyr Town away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Oxford City (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Merthyr Town (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–2L
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Oxford City (home)Merthyr Town (away)
W 2
D 2
L 1
W 1
D 3
L 2
Played
5
6
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.00
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
8.6%
2–1
8%
1–0
7.7%
3–0
5.8%
3–1
5.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Merthyr Town 1 win · 1 draw · Oxford City 0 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 2

1
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Apr 2026 Merthyr Town 1–1 Oxford City National League - North
26 Dec 2025 Oxford City 1–3 Merthyr Town National League - North

📈 Recent Form

Oxford City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Hebburn Town Away 3–0 W
03/10 Enfield Town Home 6–1 W
26/09 Morecambe Home 1–1 D
19/09 Dorchester Town Away 2–0 W
12/09 Radcliffe Away 3–0 W

Merthyr Town

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Darlington 1883 Away 1–1 D
26/09 Marine Home 1–2 L
22/09 Truro City Away 0–2 L
19/09 Truro City Home 1–1 D
12/09 Scarborough Athletic Away 0–0 D

📊 Season Comparison — National League North

Oxford City #3 · 23 pts —  Merthyr Town #15 · 15 pts

Oxford City

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–2D–2L
W 7
D 2
L 2
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1
Yellow cards1
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Merthyr Town

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–3L
W 3
D 6
L 3
Played12
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Yellow cards0
Red cards2
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Oxford CityMerthyr Town
W 7
D 2
L 2
W 3
D 6
L 3
Played
11
12
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.10
Clean sheets
6
3
Failed to score
1
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
2
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Oxford City

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
5
scored conceded

Merthyr Town

0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: National League North predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws