Middlesbrough U21 vs Derby County U21
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 • 22:00 UTC+3 • Regular Season • Heritage Park • ☁️ 4.2°C, 1 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 41.6% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 76.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 71.7% · No 28.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 71.3% · Under 28.7% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 8.2% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Middlesbrough U21 · Home
Middlesbrough U21 have lost three of their last five, including a 1-2 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur U21 (1-2), yet they scored in all five and kept a clean sheet in the 1-0 win over Juventus U21 (1-0). Their model expected goals of 1.93 is the higher of the two forecasts.
Derby County U21 · Away
Derby County U21 have won just one of five, though that was a 4-0 away win at Birmingham City U21 (4-0). They conceded 15 goals across those five matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four.
Home edge in tight H2H
The latest head-to-head went 1-0 to Derby County U21 (1-0), but the previous meeting at Middlesbrough U21 also finished 1-0 to the home side (1-0). Both recent H2H results were decided by a single goal, and the 1-5 Middlesbrough U21 win (1-5) shows this fixture can swing sharply. Derby County U21 have scored 11 in five but conceded 15, while Middlesbrough U21 have scored in every recent match. The evidence supports Middlesbrough U21 win.
Published 31 Oct 2026 22:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Middlesbrough U21 1.93 – 1.77 Derby County U21 · expected total 3.70
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Middlesbrough U21
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Premier League 2 Division One
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
Rank among 28 Premier League 2 Division One teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Middlesbrough U21 at home · Derby County U21 away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Middlesbrough U21 (home)
Derby County U21 (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Derby County U21 1 win · 0 draws · Middlesbrough U21 3 wins · avg 3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 4
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | Derby County U21 | 1–0 | Middlesbrough U21 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| 05 Nov 2023 | Middlesbrough U21 | 1–0 | Derby County U21 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| 24 Mar 2023 | Derby County U21 | 1–5 | Middlesbrough U21 | Premier League 2 Division One |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3–1 | Derby County U21 | Premier League 2 Division One |
📈 Recent Form
Middlesbrough U21
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 20/10 | Boreham Wood | Away | 1–7 | L |
| 16/10 | Everton U21 | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 30/09 | Juventus U21 | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 23/09 | Genk U21 | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/09 | Aston Villa U21 | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 13/09 | Leeds United U21 | Home | 4–4 | D |
| 09/09 | Tamworth | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 31/08 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 23/08 | Norwich City U21 | Home | 0–1 | L |
Derby County U21
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Norwich City U21 | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 19/10 | Birmingham City U21 | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Brentford U21 | Away | 2–4 | L |
| 18/09 | Burnley U21 | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 11/09 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 08/09 | Gateshead | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 31/08 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | Home | 4–4 | D |
| 24/08 | Reading U21 | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 18/08 | FC Halifax Town | Away | 2–6 | L |
| 14/08 | Hull City U21 | Home | 1–4 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Premier League 2 Division One
Middlesbrough U21 #29 · 2 pts · Derby County U21 #18 · 7 pts
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Middlesbrough U21
Derby County U21
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Premier League 2 Division One predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws