Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Le Havre vs Auxerre

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:15 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stade OcΓ©ane β€’ ☁️ 15Β°C, 9 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 76% 36.2% 2.52 Pinnacle 39.7% -3.5 pp
Double Chance 1X 71% 71.6% 1.44 1xBet 67.2% +4.4 pp
BTTS No 81% 49.1% 2.13 1xBet 44.8% +4.3 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 52.3% 2.00 1xBet 49.2% +3.1 pp
Correct Score 1-0 70% 11.6% 9.00 Bet365 5.6% +6 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 64% 27.5% 3.51 1xBet 27.6% -0.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.7 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 56.4% 1.85 Betano 51.9% +4.5 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Le Havre 1.17 – 0.86 Auxerre Β· expected total 2.03

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Le Havre host Auxerre at Stade OcΓ©ane on Sunday with both clubs stuck in the Ligue 1 basement β€” 18th versus 16th, two points against six after six rounds. For the home side this already smells like a relegation six-pointer, and the model leans toward the hosts edging it, giving Le Havre a 36.2 percent win probability at odds of 2.52.

The form lines are ugly on both sides: Le Havre arrive on LWLDL, Auxerre on WWLLL. The goal expectation splits narrowly in the hosts' favour, with recent xG of 1.57 against 1.42, though the match-level figures sit at 1.1705 for Le Havre and 0.8573 for Auxerre β€” a low-scoring script. That fits Under 2.5 at 52.3 percent (odds 2), and BTTS No at 49.1 percent (2.13). The double chance 1X lands at 71.6 percent, the safest port in a leaky harbour. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 11.6 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 trailing. Corners offer a side angle: Over 9.5 at 56.4 percent against an expected 11.7.

Value hunting: the draw is priced at 27.5 percent with 64 confidence, which may be the quiet overlay if you distrust either attack. The caveat is squad depth β€” both injury lists are brutal, nine names for Le Havre and thirteen for Auxerre, so late fitness news could move this market sharply. Treat the 2.52 as a fair-to-thin price, not a gift.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Le Havre

Form (last 5)
LLille (A) 0–1 Β· 10/10/2026WBoulogne (H) 6–1 Β· 02/10/2026LToulouse (A) 2–3 Β· 19/09/2026DAngers (H) 0–0 Β· 12/09/2026LStade Brestois 29 (H) 1–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)1.57
xG against (recent avg)1.61
Elo strength rating1368
Players out9

Auxerre

Form (last 5)
WStade Brestois 29 (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026WNice (H) 1–0 Β· 12/09/2026LLyon (A) 1–3 Β· 04/09/2026LAngers (H) 1–3 Β· 29/08/2026LLens (A) 2–5 Β· 22/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)2.40
Win streak (best this season)0
xG for (recent avg)0.98
xG against (recent avg)0.59
Elo strength rating1353
Players out13
Le HavreAuxerre
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
2.40
Win streak (best this season)
0
0
xG for (recent avg)
1.57
0.98
xG against (recent avg)
1.61
0.59
Elo strength rating
1368
1353
Players out
9
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Le Havre

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Auxerre

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Le Havre

2nd worst attack (0.70 goals/game)

Auxerre

Worst defence (2.40 conceded/game)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Le Havre at home Β· Auxerre away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Le Havre (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2

Auxerre (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–2L
L 2
Played2
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)4.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Le Havre (home)Auxerre (away)
D 1
L 2
L 2
Played
3
2
Goals scored (avg)
0.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
4.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.6%
2–0
7.4%
2–1
6.4%
3–0
2.9%
3–1
2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Auxerre 2 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Le Havre 5 wins Β· avg 2.5 goals Β· BTTS in 7 of 10

2
3
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Apr 2026 Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre Ligue 1
26 Oct 2025 Auxerre 0–1 Le Havre Ligue 1
04 May 2025 Auxerre 1–2 Le Havre Ligue 1
01 Sep 2024 Le Havre 3–1 Auxerre Ligue 1
07 May 2022 Le Havre 1–2 Auxerre Ligue 2
21 Dec 2021 Auxerre 2–3 Le Havre Ligue 2
05 Apr 2021 Auxerre 1–1 Le Havre Ligue 2
01 Dec 2020 Le Havre 1–1 Auxerre Ligue 2
06 Mar 2020 Le Havre 1–0 Auxerre Ligue 2
05 Oct 2019 Auxerre 2–0 Le Havre Ligue 2

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Le Havre

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Lille Away 0–1 L
02/10 Boulogne Home 6–1 W
19/09 Toulouse Away 2–3 L
12/09 Angers Home 0–0 D
05/09 Stade Brestois 29 Home 1–2 L

Auxerre

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20/09 Stade Brestois 29 Home 2–1 W
12/09 Nice Home 1–0 W
04/09 Lyon Away 1–3 L
29/08 Angers Home 1–3 L
22/08 Lens Away 2–5 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Le Havre #18 Β· 2 pts β€”  Auxerre #16 Β· 6 pts

Le Havre

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–4L
D 2
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards10
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.57
xG against (avg)1.61
Corners for (avg)5.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Auxerre

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–4L
W 2
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score0
Yellow cards8
Red cards1
xG for (avg)0.98
xG against (avg)0.59
Corners for (avg)6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Le HavreAuxerre
D 2
L 4
W 2
L 4
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.40
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
10
8
Red cards
2
1
xG for (avg)
1.57
0.98
xG against (avg)
1.61
0.59
Corners for (avg)
5.60
6.00
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Le Havre

3
0-15
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Auxerre

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Le Havre

  • ❌ F. Mambimbi β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Toure β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Zagadou β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Argney β€” Injury
  • ❌ L. Mpasi-Nzau β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ J. Mwanga β€” Red Card
  • ❌ R. Ndiaye β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ T. Pembele β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ E. Jelert β€” Thigh Injury

Auxerre

  • ❌ T. Bair β€” Suspended
  • ❌ A. Diousse β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ S. Fofana β€” Groin Injury
  • ❌ R. Labeau Lascary β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ B. Okoh β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ M. Senaya β€” Injury
  • ❌ F. Sierralta β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Siwe β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Wei Xiangxin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Makosso β€” Red Card
  • ❌ F. Oppegard β€” Illness
  • ❌ A. Tuanzebe β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ R. Mandengue β€” Muscle Injury

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws