Predictions β†’ France Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Lens

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 7 β€’ Stade de l'Aube β€’ 🌀 10.6Β°C, 12 km/h mostly clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 47.3% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 40.5% Β· Edge +8.2 pp
Best odds 2.47 Betano 2.471xBet 2.46Pinnacle 2.43
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 2.9% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 82% 51.8% 1.87 1xBet 54.7% -2.9 pp
Double Chance X2 69% 69.5% 1.26 1xBet 78.1% -8.6 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.8% 1.57 William Hill 60.5% -10.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 48.1% 2.47 Betano 39.9% +8.2 pp
Correct Score 0-1 64% 8.2% 10.00 Bet365 5.1% +3.1 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.1 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.2% 2.00 Bet365 48.1% +9.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.09 – 1.41 Lens Β· expected total 2.50

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Troyes sit 17th in Ligue 1 with just 4 points from 6 matches, and their last five reads LDLLL β€” a side stuck in the drop zone and short on confidence. Lens arrive 10th on 7 points with the opposite trajectory, WWLDW, and a recent head-to-head record that leans their way: a 2-4 win at the Stade de l'Aube in February 2026, plus 1-0 and 4-0 victories in earlier meetings. The stakes are simple β€” Troyes need something to stop the slide, Lens want to keep climbing.

The model sees a clear edge for the visitors. Lens carry the stronger attacking numbers, with 1.58 expected goals in recent matches against Troyes' 1.33, and the season-long picture agrees: 1.4112 for the away side versus 1.0858 for the hosts. Both squads are badly hit by injuries, with eight Troyes names out and a long Lens absentee list, so depth will matter. The model's headline call is an away win at 51.8 percent with 82 confidence, priced at 1.87 β€” that gap is where the value sits. Double chance X2 comes in at 69.5 percent for those wanting cover.

If you're hunting goals, the model leans Under 2.5 at 48.1 percent, though the 2.47 odds show how tight that market is, while BTTS Yes lands at 49.8 percent and 1.57. Corners look interesting: an expected 12.1 and 57.2 percent for Over 9.5. The top correct-score lines are 0-1 at 10.37, 1-2 at 8.91 and 0-2 at 8.2.

The honest caveat: Troyes' home ground and Lens' lengthy injury list could easily drag this into a scrappier, lower-quality contest than the numbers suggest, so treat the away win as the model's lean rather than a certainty.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Estac Troyes

Form (last 5)
LMarseille (H) 0–2 Β· 11/10/2026DDijon (A) 2–2 Β· 02/10/2026LAngers (A) 0–2 Β· 19/09/2026LLille (A) 0–2 Β· 13/09/2026LStrasbourg (H) 2–6 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)2.20
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.33
xG against (recent avg)2.02
Elo strength rating1323
Players out8

Lens

Form (last 5)
WLyon (H) 2–1 Β· 09/10/2026WStandard Liege (A) 2–0 Β· 02/10/2026LMonaco (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026DLe Mans (A) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026WSlavia Praha (A) 3–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.28
xG against (recent avg)1.60
Elo strength rating1635
Players out13
Estac TroyesLens
WLyon (H) 2–1 Β· 09/10/2026WStandard Liege (A) 2–0 Β· 02/10/2026LMonaco (A) 1–2 Β· 18/09/2026DLe Mans (A) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026WSlavia Praha (A) 3–2 Β· 10/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.80
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.20
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
xG for (recent avg)
1.33
1.28
xG against (recent avg)
2.02
1.60
Elo strength rating
1323
1635
Players out
8
13

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Estac Troyes

Winless 5
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Lens

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Ligue 1

Estac Troyes

2nd worst attack (0.70 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (2.20 conceded/game)

Lens

3rd best attack (1.80 goals/game)

Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Estac Troyes at home Β· Lens away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Estac Troyes (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2

Lens (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–2L
D 1
L 2
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Estac Troyes (home)Lens (away)
D 1
L 2
D 1
L 2
Played
3
3
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
2.70
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
8.2%
1–2
7%
0–2
6.5%
1–3
3.3%
0–3
3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Estac Troyes 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Lens 7 wins Β· avg 2.6 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

2
1
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Feb 2026 Estac Troyes 2–4 Lens Coupe de France
28 Jan 2023 Estac Troyes 1–1 Lens Ligue 1
09 Sep 2022 Lens 1–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 1
14 May 2022 Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens Ligue 1
05 Nov 2021 Lens 4–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 1
04 Feb 2020 Lens 1–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 2
24 Aug 2019 Estac Troyes 2–0 Lens Ligue 2
13 Aug 2019 Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens Coupe de la Ligue
28 Jan 2019 Estac Troyes 1–0 Lens Ligue 2
18 Aug 2018 Lens 2–0 Estac Troyes Ligue 2

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Estac Troyes

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Marseille Home 0–2 L
02/10 Dijon Away 2–2 D
19/09 Angers Away 0–2 L
13/09 Lille Away 0–2 L
06/09 Strasbourg Home 2–6 L

Lens

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Lyon Home 2–1 W
02/10 Standard Liege Away 2–0 W
18/09 Monaco Away 1–2 L
13/09 Le Mans Away 2–2 D
10/09 Slavia Praha Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Ligue 1

Estac Troyes #17 Β· 4 pts β€”  Lens #10 Β· 7 pts

Estac Troyes

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–4L
W 1
D 1
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.33
xG against (avg)2.02
Corners for (avg)8.00
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Lens

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–3L
W 2
D 1
L 3
Played6
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Yellow cards12
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.28
xG against (avg)1.60
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0
Estac TroyesLens
W 1
D 1
L 4
W 2
D 1
L 3
Played
6
6
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.80
Goals conceded (avg)
2.20
1.70
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
4
1
Yellow cards
9
12
Red cards
0
2
xG for (avg)
1.33
1.28
xG against (avg)
2.02
1.60
Corners for (avg)
8.00
8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
3/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Estac Troyes

0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
61-75
5
76-90
1
scored conceded

Lens

0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Estac Troyes

  • ❌ I. Boura β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Fatah β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Y. Titi β€” Injury
  • ❌ P. Gozzi β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Ifnaoui β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ A. Phliponeau β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Y. Kone β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Ouzenadji β€” Injury

Lens

  • ❌ K. Antonio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ S. Baidoo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ N. Celik β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Chavez β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ J. Gradit β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ S. Abdulhamid β€” Contusion
  • ❌ O. Edouard β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ M. Nawrocki β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Sagnan β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Y. Titraoui β€” Injury
  • ❌ T. Hazard β€” Coach's decision
  • ❌ A. Sima β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Todibo β€” Inactive

More: Ligue 1 predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws